PLaying STATE lotteries Versus PowerBall/Mega Millions ?Prev Topic Next Topic

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DieterZetsche

United States
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January 9, 2007
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Jan 9, 2007, 1:44 am

I usually play the big ones, Mega Milions/ Powerball... but recently I've decided I don't need that much money and seeing The huge odds of Mega Millions & Powerball of 1 in over 174 Million , the probabilties are too large to waste that much for.
For the amount of Money I throw at it, I might be giving myself better chance to win at the state lotteries. I am only aiming for a few million dollars which I hope to put into a mutual fund or saving account.

The State lotteries have 1 in 22 Million for Texas. . 1 in 44 for New York... THe probabilties are much better for state lotteries. Which are still very hard to win.

I think this will be a better use of amount of Funds I put in ...by buying the state lotteries of between 1 to 10 million jackpots.

PLUS , there is a lot wealth of data and teh lottery software can help better in the 5/50+ area.

WHat do YOU THINK?
Coin Toss

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
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January 17, 2006
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Jan 9, 2007, 2:05 am

I like the strategy but it's hard enough trying to hit a 5 / 39 game where the oddds are 575, 757 :1.
Trying to hit games with odds of multi-millions is still asking to 'get hit by lightning'.
A lot of people here feel that if you're going to hit, you're going to hit, and that's all there is to it.
Never ignore THE LUCK FACTOR.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
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March 24, 2001
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Jan 9, 2007, 12:41 pm

Playing the lotteries, even the easier ones is no way to contribute to a mutual fund or a saving account. Thinking you're planning your future when you're buying lottery tickets might make you feel good but odds are you're going to spend more money than you will ever win.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
derek7

IL
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March 4, 2006
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Jan 9, 2007, 12:48 pm

Idea is nice. On the other hand, if you play Power Ball, even the 2nd tier price and the 3rd tier price are nice - assuming the powerplay option is like 5 or something.... and while you try to win this 10,000xPP or 200,00xPP you still have the chance to hit the big one...
But again, your idea makes sense.
Derek
KY Floyd

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Jan 9, 2007, 1:08 pm

If you think too practically you'll come to the conclusion that the odds are always against you and you'll end up with more money by just saving what you'd spend on tickets, but as long as you are going to play it makes sense to balance the odds against the possible payout.

Since I'm in NY I'll play lotto and/or MM depending on the jackpot. The odds in lotto are about 1 in 22.5 million (you're using the odds for a single set of numbers, but since you play two combinations for $1 the odds are only half as bad), so for the same $1 you're almost 8 times as likely to win lotto as you are to win MM. That makes it foolish to play MM instead of lotto if all you go by are the odds. It's definitely better to play lotto if the jackpot is as big or bigger than MM.
Right now NY Lotto has a $21 million dollar annuity, which is probably about $10 million for the lump sum, and MM is offering almost $72 milion for the lump sum. So how do you compare them? With MM you've only got about 1/8 the chance of winning, but if you do win you could win almost 8 times as much. That means you're expectation is about the same for either game, in terms of risk vs reward. OTOH, you could live comfortably on what you'd net from lotto, so you'd be 8 times more likely to win and have a comfortable life by playing lotto instead of MM. How you decide which one makes more sense is strictly a matter of personal preference, for the current jackpots.
Since it's all subjective I'm sure there will be a lot of different opinions. Any way you look at it the odds are very much against you, so no matter which game you play you're very unlikely to win a big prize, and I won't argue against the idea that there isn't really a big difference between 175 million to 1 against you and 22 million to 1 against you. I certainly don't need MM's $72 million to live a very comfortable lifestyle and do most of the things money lets me do, but that much would also let me be very generous and my friends and family would also be able to spend more time doing those things with me. As Coin Toss says, with those odds it also makes sense to simply buy a ticket and figure you'll win or you won't.
I doubt that many players actually do it, especially if you play the same numbers for more than one game, but if you're going to buy more than one ticket in your life your odds are better if you buy them all at once, and even if you buy every combination in a game you won't win $20 million if the jackpot is only $10 million. Strictly from an odds vs jackpot perspective your best bet would be to spend your entire lottery budget on tickets for the biggest jackpot of the year in a game with better odds. Of course you won't know ahead of time which is the biggest, so you can't really do that, but you can concentrate on the bigger jackpots. Don't play when it's less than $10 million, but buy 2 tickets if it gets over $20, for example.
CASH Only

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Jan 9, 2007, 1:41 pm

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Jan 9, 2007
If you think too practically you'll come to the conclusion that the odds are always against you and you'll end up with more money by just saving what you'd spend on tickets, but as long as you are going to play it makes sense to balance the odds against the possible payout.

Since I'm in NY I'll play lotto and/or MM depending on the jackpot. The odds in lotto are about 1 in 22.5 million (you're using the odds for a single set of numbers, but since you play two combinations for $1 the odds are only half as bad), so for the same $1 you're almost 8 times as likely to win lotto as you are to win MM. That makes it foolish to play MM instead of lotto if all you go by are the odds. It's definitely better to play lotto if the jackpot is as big or bigger than MM.
Right now NY Lotto has a $21 million dollar annuity, which is probably about $10 million for the lump sum, and MM is offering almost $72 milion for the lump sum. So how do you compare them? With MM you've only got about 1/8 the chance of winning, but if you do win you could win almost 8 times as much. That means you're expectation is about the same for either game, in terms of risk vs reward. OTOH, you could live comfortably on what you'd net from lotto, so you'd be 8 times more likely to win and have a comfortable life by playing lotto instead of MM. How you decide which one makes more sense is strictly a matter of personal preference, for the current jackpots.
Since it's all subjective I'm sure there will be a lot of different opinions. Any way you look at it the odds are very much against you, so no matter which game you play you're very unlikely to win a big prize, and I won't argue against the idea that there isn't really a big difference between 175 million to 1 against you and 22 million to 1 against you. I certainly don't need MM's $72 million to live a very comfortable lifestyle and do most of the things money lets me do, but that much would also let me be very generous and my friends and family would also be able to spend more time doing those things with me. As Coin Toss says, with those odds it also makes sense to simply buy a ticket and figure you'll win or you won't.
I doubt that many players actually do it, especially if you play the same numbers for more than one game, but if you're going to buy more than one ticket in your life your odds are better if you buy them all at once, and even if you buy every combination in a game you won't win $20 million if the jackpot is only $10 million. Strictly from an odds vs jackpot perspective your best bet would be to spend your entire lottery budget on tickets for the biggest jackpot of the year in a game with better odds. Of course you won't know ahead of time which is the biggest, so you can't really do that, but you can concentrate on the bigger jackpots. Don't play when it's less than $10 million, but buy 2 tickets if it gets over $20, for example.

Given the astronomical odds of hitting MM or PB, normally it makes sense to consider the in-state jackpot game, if it's available. For example, in Connecticut or New Jersey, the state jackpot game (in the case of NJ, even Jersey Cash 5) can be attractive.
But in NY, with the notoriously low payout percentage in Lotto 59, you need to think twice before playing it. For those who believe NY Lotto is a "better" game (since it's two plays for $1) than MM or PB, remember that on average you win only 20 cents per game in NY Lotto, v 50 cents per game in MM/PB.
mangeydog

iowa
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Jan 9, 2007, 8:32 pm

Or you could look at it likethis, for $2 you can get a Powerball ticket with the PowerPlay option(where applicable). The odds would be 1 in 3.5 million(roughly) that you would win $400,000 to $1,000,000 at the same time havng a 1 in 43 chance of a significantly larger payout. The odds of 3.5 million is quite a bit better than most state lotteries, albeit with a usually much smaller payoff.
Coin Toss

Zeta Reticuli Star System
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Jan 9, 2007, 10:06 pm

CASH Only said:
"Given the astronomical odds of hitting MM or PB, normally it makes sense to consider the in-state jackpot game, if it's available. For example, in Connecticut or New Jersey, the state jackpot game (in the case of NJ, even Jersey Cash 5) can be attractive."
I agree somewhat, and this is the somewhat: When you're talking lotto, the odds are still astronomical.
Think about this, people go broke playing " 6 & 8" sytems on crap tables, and the odds against catching sixes and eights are 6 to 5 for point numbers and 7 to 6 for place bets.
5 / 39 games are 575, 757 to one, some of those games were 5 /30 before thet got changed, and the odds on that were a lot less, around 40,000 to one IIRC, didn't mean it was easy.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
chasingadream

United States
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May 3, 2006
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Jan 9, 2007, 10:33 pm

me personally i just play them all......tx lotto, powerball and megamillions. Any state that I'm in i play

waiting patiently for my jackpot
KY Floyd

NY
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Jan 10, 2007, 1:38 am

Quote: Originally posted by CASH Only on Jan 9, 2007
Given the astronomical odds of hitting MM or PB, normally it makes sense to consider the in-state jackpot game, if it's available. For example, in Connecticut or New Jersey, the state jackpot game (in the case of NJ, even Jersey Cash 5) can be attractive.
But in NY, with the notoriously low payout percentage in Lotto 59, you need to think twice before playing it. For those who believe NY Lotto is a "better" game (since it's two plays for $1) than MM or PB, remember that on average you win only 20 cents per game in NY Lotto, v 50 cents per game in MM/PB.

$10 million is $10 million whether it was collected 1 cent per ticket or 99 cents per ticket. In deciding which game to play at any given time it doesn't matter what the payout percentage is if you balance the odds against the payout. MM just got hit and it wasn't me, so it's a no brainer whether I should risk my next $1 on the 175 million to one chance of winning the $7 million lump sum of the next MM or the 22 million to one chance of winning the $10 million lump sum in lotto.
CASH Only

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Jan 10, 2007, 9:40 am

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Jan 10, 2007
$10 million is $10 million whether it was collected 1 cent per ticket or 99 cents per ticket. In deciding which game to play at any given time it doesn't matter what the payout percentage is if you balance the odds against the payout. MM just got hit and it wasn't me, so it's a no brainer whether I should risk my next $1 on the 175 million to one chance of winning the $7 million lump sum of the next MM or the 22 million to one chance of winning the $10 million lump sum in lotto.

Tonight's (1/10) Powerball is $131 million. Rather than playing NY Blotto and at most winning a dollar, you should mosey on to Connecticut (or Pennsylvania.) Remember that the minimum prize in PB is $3, and the overall odds are better than in NY Blotto.
KY Floyd

NY
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Jan 10, 2007, 3:51 pm

As it happens, I'll be passing through PA on Friday, so if PB rolls tonight I'll grab a couple of tickets when we stop for gas. If it rolls again I'll stop on the way home and put down $10 for 2 tickets for the next 5 draws, since the odds are that it will roll again. If I made a special trip just to but tickets it would cost about $12 for gas, $20 or so in wear and tear on the car, and a bit over 2 hours of my time. Even spread over 10 tickets that makes the tickets rather pricey.
derek7

IL
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March 4, 2006
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Jan 10, 2007, 4:10 pm

I agree with Coin Toss, they all are difficult to hit... Including 5/~30
Yup, got to keep it in mind.
tony2222

boston
United States
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July 12, 2004
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Jan 11, 2007, 1:56 pm

powerball taxes are so much higher then megamillions its ridiculous.
CA LotteryGuy

California
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October 1, 2006
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Jan 11, 2007, 2:46 pm

Quote: Originally posted by tony2222 on Jan 11, 2007
powerball taxes are so much higher then megamillions its ridiculous.

tony2222...what do you mean by Powerball taxes are so much higher then Mega Millions?

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