United States
Member #24,379
October 21, 2005
623 Posts
Offline
So close to the 400.00 million mark. MEgaMillions. Wish you had gone all the way to $400 mil plus. I think that if the jackpots got really big, there would be more 5 number winner payouts? Just my thoughts. I never worry about the numbers, stats, odds, etc. I just play and win here and there.
Zeta Reticuli Star System United States
Member #30,469
January 17, 2006
11,788 Posts
Offline
My vote was No, neither.....but I want to add that's assuming the present game, present matrixes. I can see one or both of them changing to rev up interest, people are getting numb to "jackpot news" and it takes larger amounts to stir interest.
If this happens it will be good for the lotteries only and not the players, but with those kind of jackpot amounts more and more neophyte and occassional players will get involved.
Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.
There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
NY United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
4,772 Posts
Offline
The last roll of MM increased the (annuity) jackpot by about $115 million, which means that if it had rolled it would definitely have gone past $500 million. Even with 212 million tickets sold there was at least a 1 in 3 chance of rolling, so I'd say that reaching $500 million is a foregone conclusion. The only question is when it will happen and which game will do it first. The higher odds say MM is more likely to roll, but the longer annuity payout for PB let's them inflate the advertised jackpot, so either game has similar chances of reaching any given level. MM has a much better chance at paying out a $300 million dollar cash jackpot.
The number of winners is related to ticket sales by the odds, so higher sales will generally mean more winners. With sales of 212 million tickest for MM and 1 in 3,904,701 odds of matching 5+0 we could have expected 54 winners. The 43 we had was lower than expected, but that's how probability works.
As far as needing bigger jackpots to stir interest, on the current run MM sold over 110 million tickets when it was advertised at 267/275 million. A year ago the back to back $267 and $265 million jackpots sold about 96 and70 million tickets. Going for a while without a big jackpot may have increased sales, but it doesn't lok to me like sales are hurting, at least not relative to jackpot size.
New Jersey United States
Member #2,376
September 25, 2003
582 Posts
Offline
MM will be the first to $500 million. Powerball might be able to make it, but not in the next couple of years. The reason why Powerball wont make it to $500 million anytime soon is the cap rule. They will need 3 or more record jackpot runs before it makes it to $500 million.
Kentucky United States
Member #32,651
February 14, 2006
10,302 Posts Online
Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Mar 9, 2007
The last roll of MM increased the (annuity) jackpot by about $115 million, which means that if it had rolled it would definitely have gone past $500 million. Even with 212 million tickets sold there was at least a 1 in 3 chance of rolling, so I'd say that reaching $500 million is a foregone conclusion. The only question is when it will happen and which game will do it first. The higher odds say MM is more likely to roll, but the longer annuity payout for PB let's them inflate the advertised jackpot, so either game has similar chances of reaching any given level. MM has a much better chance at paying out a $300 million dollar cash jackpot.
The number of winners is related to ticket sales by the odds, so higher sales will generally mean more winners. With sales of 212 million tickest for MM and 1 in 3,904,701 odds of matching 5+0 we could have expected 54 winners. The 43 we had was lower than expected, but that's how probability works.
As far as needing bigger jackpots to stir interest, on the current run MM sold over 110 million tickets when it was advertised at 267/275 million. A year ago the back to back $267 and $265 million jackpots sold about 96 and70 million tickets. Going for a while without a big jackpot may have increased sales, but it doesn't lok to me like sales are hurting, at least not relative to jackpot size.
"The number of winners is related to ticket sales by the odds, so higher sales will generally mean more winners. With sales of 212 million tickest for MM and 1 in 3,904,701 odds of matching 5+0 we could have expected 54 winners. The 43 we had was lower than expected, but that's how probability works."
If all the matching 5 combinations were sold with all the mega balls, there should have been 45 tickets matching 5+0. And since there was 2 jackpot winners, some of the matching 5+0 probably had the same mega ball too.
We know better but people do assume when more tickets are sold than possible combinations, the jackpot must be hit. I suppose that's the logic behind the "I only play when the jackpot is high" theory.
NY United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
4,772 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Mar 9, 2007
"The number of winners is related to ticket sales by the odds, so higher sales will generally mean more winners. With sales of 212 million tickest for MM and 1 in 3,904,701 odds of matching 5+0 we could have expected 54 winners. The 43 we had was lower than expected, but that's how probability works."
If all the matching 5 combinations were sold with all the mega balls, there should have been 45 tickets matching 5+0. And since there was 2 jackpot winners, some of the matching 5+0 probably had the same mega ball too.
We know better but people do assume when more tickets are sold than possible combinations, the jackpot must be hit. I suppose that's the logic behind the "I only play when the jackpot is high" theory.
Since only 45 people matched all 5 white balls and two of those picked mega ball 20 we know that at least two mega balls weren't picked. Simple probability says that some of the other mega balls would have been played two or three times if they were all chosen randomly. We know that a lot of people play "special" numbers, so selections aren't random, and that increases duplication.
Because there are only about 3.9 million combinations for white balls there would have been massive duplication with 212 million tickets sold, with an average of 54.3 tickets for each 5 number combination. About 2/3's of the total combinations would have been sold (assuming comletely random selections), so the duplication of white ball combinations suggests that for any given white ball combination about 1/3 of the mega balls would have been unplayed. Since a lot of people play special numbers and many of those are birthdays, it's a pretty safe bet that more than 5 of the mega balls from 32 to 46 weren't played. If one more white ball or the mega ball had been above 31 the chance of a rollover may well have been 50% or better.
As far as more people playing when the jackpot is higher, different people will have different reasons. I'd think that, on average, the people here would be better educated about how the lottery works. That doesn't mean people here are smarter than average, though, and I've seen plenty of posts showing that some people don't understand the probability behind the games even if they know more of the other details. Even with people who have a decent understanding I'm sure a lot of people think sales of 212 million for a game with only 176 million combinations means that most combinations are played (I've seen posts where people think a pick 4 number is "overdue" when there still haven't been 10,000 drawings) and there's a much higher chance of a winner than there really is. That belief would make people believe that the jackpot will almost surely be hit, but I don't believe very many people actually think that gives them a better chance. I think for most people the logic behind playing only for large jackpots is realistic logic. Their chances of winning are the same as with smaller jackpots, the risk is the same, but the possible reward is much better. OTOH, spending $100 on a big jackpot when you won't spend $2 on a jackpot that's 10% as high may suggest a poor grasp of the reality.
United States
Member #41,382
June 16, 2006
1,969 Posts
Offline
'We know better but people do assume when more tickets are sold than possible combinations, the jackpot must be hit.'
No, not when people buy the same exact combinations as other people.
You can bet there were multiple sales of 5-8-24-25-48, 2-7-21-29-31, 6-9*-16-17-26 and I am sure I can think of others. I am sure 3 and 8 are hit very hard - probably along with 29, 31 and maybe 20.
I have certain criteria I play - the actual number does not matter one bit - whatever fits in the criteria is what I play - that in itself eliminates the biasness of playing numbers that 'look good'.
United States
Member #29,416
January 1, 2006
355 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by Just6ntlc on Mar 11, 2007
My vote is for PB. I hope PB rolls to 390+ million.
It does not matter to me I think the Power of Energy to want, ask and recieve is not for me! cuz i can't even get a p3 or p4 imagine trying for mega bucks...the universe is not on my side...too much going out and nothing coming back in....low blow...Their is no such thing as a """"Secret"""
Zeta Reticuli Star System
