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 * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

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  • four4me
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    MD
    United States
    Member #1,701
    June 18, 2003
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    Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Aug 12, 2007

  • To appear on the top predictors page, members must post at least 500 picks, and must have posted at least one pick in the last 60 days.

    • Thanks RJOh i failed to mention that as i forgot too.

    But what i was getting at is their are posters who have posted large numbers of picks in the past and sat idle for 30 days then started posting picks again. So some of those posters picks may have won and their states over the 30 day period are improved.

    For me i tend to look at individual posters overall stats by clicking on their user name and checking their prediction statistics.

    I don't do comparisons unless my quantity of picks are near or equal to someone else's.

    Prediction statistics can be defined in many ways depending on whom does the observing and what they are trying to interpret.

  • Todd
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    50
    Chief Bottle Washer
    New Jersey
    United States
    Member #1
    May 31, 2000
    27,938 Posts
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    Quote: Originally posted by four4me on Aug 12, 2007

    Thanks RJOh i failed to mention that as i forgot too.

    But what i was getting at is their are posters who have posted large numbers of picks in the past and sat idle for 30 days then started posting picks again. So some of those posters picks may have won and their states over the 30 day period are improved.

    For me i tend to look at individual posters overall stats by clicking on their user name and checking their prediction statistics.

    I don't do comparisons unless my quantity of picks are near or equal to someone else's.

    Prediction statistics can be defined in many ways depending on whom does the observing and what they are trying to interpret.

    These are all good points.  I knew when I created the stats summary page it could be interpreted in very simple, literal ways, which is not its intention.  The summary page does not necessarily show the best predictors.  It is a tangible measure of an intangible thing.  (Does that make sense?)

    Don't get me wrong; it is a mark of distinction to get onto the Top 10 of any of four categories.  But it is by no means a definitive measure of who is "best".

    I would also agree that the point about who is a standard member vs. premium member is irrelevant, although as I pointed out above, there is a disproportionately high number of premium members on the top lists.

     

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  • RJOh
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    mid-Ohio
    United States
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    March 24, 2001
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    Quote: Originally posted by Yukio on Aug 12, 2007

    are standard members?

    Weird.

    What do you think about it?

    Even most of the top predictors by prize ratio are standard members ... Is this something to wonder about?  

    I'm presently in the top ten of all four categories of the Predictors for All States, All Game Types which can be misleading.  30% or more of my latest predictions have been for West Virgina Cash25 which is a 625 games that is calculated on the board the same as any other  six numbers games of which most are 649 or larger. 

    Treating a game with 177,100 possible combinations the same as games with 13,983,816 possible combinations or more give the predictors of WV Cash25 a huge advantage when compared with predictors of other pick6 games.  There may be other similar situations on the board for other games but this is the one that helps me.  Todd in past posts has mentioned that such conditions will exist for convenience.

    To make a fair comparison of different predictors positions on the different boards, you have to look at a break down of all their predictions.

     * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

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  • KY Floyd
    KY Floyd's avatar
    NY
    United States
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    October 16, 2005
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    I'm going to go way out on a limb and bet that most of the cold predictors are standard members too.

  • Todd
    Todd's avatar
    50
    Chief Bottle Washer
    New Jersey
    United States
    Member #1
    May 31, 2000
    27,938 Posts
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    Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Aug 13, 2007

    I'm going to go way out on a limb and bet that most of the cold predictors are standard members too.

    LOL Yes Nod Yeah, good point!

     

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  • guesser
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    June 16, 2006
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    I have 89 billion 'systems' (well, not quite THAT many..) but I found more than about 3 are too many. (one system to help me pick one number, another system for another number, a third system for a third number), and for the final 2 numbers - dart board/coin toss/guesswork.

    I found something that helps me narrow down the Powerball quite a bit, but going from 42 to about 12 isn't a great value. 

    I had one WB system that would give me a list of about 20-22 numbers that 'should' hit, and you know what ? There are times NONE of them hit, so I reversed it and used them as a 'Do Not Play' number, and I started doing well again. 

    So what am I saying ?

    Maybe sometimes we just try too hard.... 

  • spy153
    spy153's avatar
    United States
    Member #28,408
    December 15, 2005
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    Quote: Originally posted by guesser on Aug 13, 2007

    I have 89 billion 'systems' (well, not quite THAT many..) but I found more than about 3 are too many. (one system to help me pick one number, another system for another number, a third system for a third number), and for the final 2 numbers - dart board/coin toss/guesswork.

    I found something that helps me narrow down the Powerball quite a bit, but going from 42 to about 12 isn't a great value. 

    I had one WB system that would give me a list of about 20-22 numbers that 'should' hit, and you know what ? There are times NONE of them hit, so I reversed it and used them as a 'Do Not Play' number, and I started doing well again. 

    So what am I saying ?

    Maybe sometimes we just try too hard.... 

    i'm guilty of trying too hard.Wink

    voir-vous dans mes reves!Cool

  • Yukio
    Brazil
    Member #51,779
    April 24, 2007
    384 Posts
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    Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Aug 12, 2007

    I'm presently in the top ten of all four categories of the Predictors for All States, All Game Types which can be misleading.  30% or more of my latest predictions have been for West Virgina Cash25 which is a 625 games that is calculated on the board the same as any other  six numbers games of which most are 649 or larger. 

    Treating a game with 177,100 possible combinations the same as games with 13,983,816 possible combinations or more give the predictors of WV Cash25 a huge advantage when compared with predictors of other pick6 games.  There may be other similar situations on the board for other games but this is the one that helps me.  Todd in past posts has mentioned that such conditions will exist for convenience.

    To make a fair comparison of different predictors positions on the different boards, you have to look at a break down of all their predictions.

    Ok, tried the  West Virginia Cash 25.

    10 trials. 

    Winners: 

    4 predictions, 3 of 6 for $5 each. 

    The odds are similar to Keno games, even if the game is a six number game. Probably you are talking about the easy types of games, since this site use fixed amounts for the calculations of prize ratios there could be some distortions. The real prize is just $1, here it is listed as $5. Ok, this could serve as a compensation for those 2/5 losts on Pennsylvania Treasure Hunt games. There is a similar situation on 2by2 because of the positional numbers on the second pair. As for the general predictions, this would affect more the West Virginia predictors. Since some persons make a  analyze of games by state, this should not be a great problem.

  • Just6ntlc
    United States
    Member #16,611
    June 2, 2005
    3,493 Posts
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    I'm not even close to becoming a hot predictor. I'm just not lucky at all.

  • justxploring
    justxploring's avatar
    Wandering Aimlessly
    United States
    Member #25,359
    November 5, 2005
    4,461 Posts
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    Quote: Originally posted by Just6ntlc on Aug 16, 2007

    I'm not even close to becoming a hot predictor. I'm just not lucky at all.

     Maybe you are lucky at other things.

     

    I'm going to go way out on a limb and bet that most of the cold predictors are standard members too.

     

    I agree.  In fact, I'll bet real money that most of the standard members have 1 nose and most of the premium members have 2 ears.

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