How do I prove my state lottery's CGNs are fixed?Prev Topic Next Topic

Native American Eagle Sun

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December 7, 2001
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Dec 10, 2007, 12:46 am

How do I prove my state lottery's Computer Generated Numbers are fixed? This is a perplexing and difficult task, but it's not beyond a reasonable plausibility. The task becomes an experiment with a number of steps to follow. Following this opening is a header outline of what can be expected in general; after that, each header is presented in more detail and may have data, graphs, explanations in logic and process, theories, etc. The contents in each header will not get too technical unless it is needed to help support a current or following idea, process, data, graph, computation or theory.

Next is a list of each header and a brief explanation:

Pretext
Setup information.
Correlation
Simple explanation and graphs in the presentation.
Computations for Analysis
Draw mean and span, the Simplified Bidirectional Mean Averaging.
Wheel Application
Using the draw mean to derive wheel numbers.
Distributions and Analysis
Lottery and Wheel Pool distributions and draw span distribution.
The Pretest, Experiment 0
The 60 draw sample data for analysis and correlation from 2007-08-06 to 2007-10-04.
The Setup and Cost Effective Approach
If they're watching the Lottery Post Predictions, use it to an advantage.
The Test, Experiment 1
Draw and wheel data for the 60 day sample from 2007-10-05 to 2007-12-03.
The Conclusion, Experiment 1
Possible proof the Computer Generated Numbers are fixed?
The Posttest, Experiment 2
A 90 draw sample and wheel posting to play on current draw number deficiencies started 2007-12-04.

Pretext

Prerequisites: Understanding of lotteries, lottery wheels, analysis and systems; graph reading and table reading skills; math operations, statistics, averages, line equations.

In going through this, I ask that anyone reading this please keep this basic understanding in mind. This is not an attempt to try and predict any particular combination. This has more to do with reasonable expectation. I have stated in my blog and defined the difference between the two. The following is from my blog on 2007-02-23:

"Reasonable Expectation and Prediction are often thought of as being the same; they are not. Prediction has a level of precision that is greater than Reasonable Expectation and Prediction can be derived from Reasonable Expectation. Reasonable Expectation has a level of accuracy that is greater than Prediction, however, Reasonable Expectation can only be derived from many different Predictions."

Understanding this difference between reasonable expectation and prediction is important for this topic. There is a tendency to think this topic is about predicting exact combinations. It is about what would be reasonably expected from a lottery selection and the playing of a wheeled set of numbers in a combinatorial set.

The lottery chosen to work with is the Wisconsin Lottery Badger 5. It is a pick 5 of 31 numbers game and is a completely Computer Generated Number game. It has been a Computer Generated Numbers game since its implementation back on 2003-02-17. The numbers selected will be analyzed based on their individual total frequency for the numbers 1 to 31. This creates a distribution and the distribution can be analyzed using a computational method called the Simplified Bidirectional Mean Averaging to show the average fluctuations in the data throughout the numbers 1 to 31. The span of numbers between the largest and the smallest numbers is also analyzed by distribution.

The selected numbers from the previous day's draw are averaged to get a mean value and that mean value is used to create pool of 12 numbers. Those 12 numbers are then inserted into a set of combinations called a wheel. The wheel is then posted on the Lottery Post's prediction board and recorded for further analysis. The 12 numbers derived are also analyzed based on their individual total frequency relative to the 1 to 31 numbers. Here too, the analysis produces a distribution of numbers 1 to 31 and the Simplified Bidirectional Mean Averaging is applied to find the average fluctuations in the distribution.

Both of these analysis procedures are applied to a set of 60 draws before the posting of the wheels and 60 draws during the posting of the wheels; they are experiment 0 (before) and 1 (during). Both experiments will produce a graph of distributions that can be compared to each other and between the drawn numbers and wheeled numbers. From that, it can be visually inspected to see if there is a correlation between the drawn numbers and the wheeled numbers.

In any means of proving that something is influenced by something else, there needs to be a means of correlating the data in to the data out. The statistical information is provided via a link, however, it's easier to present the data in a graphical form for easy reading. If there are questions about the graphs, refer to the data links provided first. The data can be downloaded to perform additional analysis.

Correlation

This is an over simplified description, correlation is the relationship between to different sets of data relative to the same event. Typically, it's thought of as degree of relationship between the Data A (in) to the Data B (out). It's like the heat put into a flask of water and the temperature measured or the electrical current put into a light bulb and the light emitted out. The level of correlation can be expressed as a value from 0 to 1. Later in the topic, this value will be referred to as the R-squared value. The closer to 0 the R-squared value is means there is low correlation between the Data A (in) and the Data B (out). A value closer to 1 means there is a high correlation between the Data A (in) and the Data B (out). Also, there are negative, neutral and positive relationships between the Data A (in) and the Data B (out). The more negative a correlation is means Data A goes in one direction and Data B goes in the opposite direction. The more positive a correlation is means Data A goes in one direction and Data B goes in the same direction. A neutral correlation means Data A changes, but Data B does not change in relationship to Data A. Below are some simple animated graphs to show how this would look.

The animated graphs can be also shown as a line graph to display all the data values at once. The following are the same animated graphs as a non-animated line graphs.

The data can also be graphed as an XY plot with Data A (in) on the horizontal X axis and Data B (out) on the vertical Y axis . The green line on the graph is the general trend line for each. A negative correlation will slant from upper left to lower right and the data will be fairly close to the line, a positive correlation will slant from the lower left to the upper right and the data will be fairly close to the line. A neutral correlation may be slanted or horizontal, but the data will not be very close to the line.

Understanding these last two sets of line graphs is going to be important in showing the relationship between the wheel distributions (Data A) and the draw distributions (Data B). As the distribution data is presented, it will begin as a bar graph and then the Simplified Bidirectional Mean Averaging will be applied to give a line graph showing the average fluctuations in the distributions. The fluctuation distributions will be shown in both formats, line graphs and XY plots.

Computations for Analysis

In order to get the wheel numbers and the average fluctuations in the distributions, a few math operations need to be done. First the mean value of the previously selected draw is needed to derive the wheel numbers. If the previous days draw is represented by these set of values for each column, {A, B, C, D, E}, then the mean is the sum of those numbers divided by the pick size, r. The equation is as follows:

D_m = (A + B + C + D + E) / r

Example, if the previous days draw is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, then the mean is D_m = (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5) / 5, D_m = 15 / 5 or D_m = 3. The mean will be applied to find the wheel numbers later.

Next is the Simplified Bidirectional Mean Averaging and is similar to the posted topic Bidirectional Mean Averaging and the Wave Matrix. As the name suggests, it a simplified version of the bidirectional mean averaging process. It involves a few steps: up mean averaging, down mean averaging, the average between the up an down processes. The process is as follows:

By example, if the sample data is {X₁, X₂, X₃, X₄, X₅, X₆, X₇, X₈, X₉, X₁₀}, then the up mean averaging is

U₁ = X₁
U₂ = (U₁ + X₂) / 2
U₃ = (U₂ + X₃) / 2
U₄ = (U₃ + X₄) / 2
U₅ = (U₄ + X₅) / 2
U₆ = (U₅ + X₆) / 2
U₇ = (U₆ + X₇) / 2
U₈ = (U₇ + X₈) / 2
U₉ = (U₈ + X₉) / 2
U₁₀ = (U₉ + X₁₀) / 2

The up mean averaging data is {U₁, U₂, U₃, U₄, U₅, U₆, U₇, U₈, U₉, U₁₀}. The down mean averaging is

D₁₀ = X₁₀
D₉ = (D₁₀ + X₉) / 2
D₈ = (D₉ + X₈) / 2
D₇ = (D₈ + X₇) / 2
D₆ = (D₇ + X₆) / 2
D₅ = (D₆ + X₅) / 2
D₄ = (D₅ + X₄) / 2
D₃ = (D₄ + X₃) / 2
D₂ = (D₃ + X₂) / 2
D₁ = (D₂ + X₁) / 2

The down mean averaging data is {D₁, D₂, D₃, D₄, D₅, D₆, D₇, D₈, D₉, D₁₀}. The simplified bidirectional mean averaging is

B₁ = (U₁ + D₁) / 2
B₂ = (U₂ + D₂) / 2
B₃ = (U₃ + D₃) / 2
B₄ = (U₄ + D₄) / 2
B₅ = (U₅ + D₅) / 2
B₆ = (U₆ + D₆) / 2
B₇ = (U₇ + D₇) / 2
B₈ = (U₈ + D₈) / 2
B₉ = (U₉ + D₉) / 2
B₁₀ = (U₁₀ + D₁₀) / 2

The simplified bidirectional mean averaging data is {B₁, B₂, B₃, B₄, B₅, B₆, B₇, B₈, B₉, B₁₀} for this sample set of 10 numbers. A different quantity set of numbers will follow the same basic process where X₁ is set equal to U₁ and then the following mean averaging; also, X_n is set equal to D_n and then the following mean averaging, where n is the quantity of numbers in the set.

Another step is needed to make the averaging results more smooth; to work out any big differences in the data. This process is called iteration and it is simply the reapplication of the bidirectional mean averaging method to the data derived by the bidirectional mean averaging. If the data from the bidirectional mean averaging is {B₁, B₂, B₃, B₄, B₅, B₆, B₇, B₈, B₉, B₁₀}, then the bidirectional mean averaging data is set equal to the original variables {X₁, X₂, X₃, X₄, X₅, X₆, X₇, X₈, X₉, X₁₀} and the bidirectional mean averaging process is repeated. The new data is said to have been reiterated in the bidirectional mean averaging process, hence the term, iteration. The first iteration is the first application of the method, the second iteration is the reapplication of the method and so on. An example of the method and the following iterations are shown in the graph below. From the graph, Iteration 8 shows the average fluctuations in the distribution. Below the example are a few more graphs.

This graph shows Iteration 8 plotted against a second axis on the right, Average Fluctuation.

An additional calculation is needed for a distribution discussed later in the post. It is the draw span and it's the difference between the largest number and the smallest number in an individual draw. If the draw data is {A, B, C, D, E} and the draw data is in ascending order, then the draw span is

D_s = E - A, where E > A

Example, if the draw is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, then the draw span is D_s = 5 - 1 or D_s = 4.

Wheel Application

The draw mean is used to derive the 12 numbers that will be inserted in a wheel for posting on the Lottery Post's prediction board. First, the Integer part of the draw mean is found; it is D_i = Int(D_m). The D_i value is then used to add and subtract incremental values above and below the D_i value to get a set of 12 numbers. Below are the equations for finding W_n values 1 to 12, where n is 1 to 12.

W₁ = D_i - 5
W₂ = D_i - 4
W₃ = D_i - 3
W₄ = D_i - 2
W₅ = D_i - 1
W₆ = D_i
W₇ = D_i + 1
W₈ = D_i + 2
W₉ = D_i + 3
W₁₀ = D_i + 4
W₁₁ = D_i + 5
W₁₂ = D_i + 6

The wheel numbers are then {W₁, W₂, W₃, W₄, W₅, W₆, W₇, W₈, W₉, W₁₀, W₁₁, W₁₂}.

The wheel used is as follows:

Index	A	B	C	D	E
1	1	2	3	5	7
2	1	2	3	5	12
3	1	2	4	7	8
4	1	2	5	6	12
5	1	2	5	7	10
6	1	2	6	7	11
7	1	2	6	9	10
8	1	3	4	6	11
9	1	3	4	8	9
10	1	3	5	6	12
11	1	3	6	7	8
12	1	4	5	7	11
13	1	4	5	8	9
14	1	4	5	8	10
15	1	4	5	9	12
16	1	4	6	9	11
17	1	4	6	10	12
18	1	4	8	10	12
19	1	5	7	10	11
20	1	5	8	9	11
21	1	5	8	10	12
22	2	3	4	6	9
23	2	3	4	9	10
24	2	3	5	9	11
25	2	3	6	9	10
26	2	3	7	8	10
27	2	3	7	9	11
28	2	3	8	9	12
29	2	4	7	10	11
30	2	5	6	7	11
31	2	6	7	10	12
32	2	6	8	10	11
33	2	6	8	10	12
34	2	7	8	11	12
35	3	4	6	11	12
36	3	4	7	9	12
37	3	4	8	9	10
38	3	5	6	8	9
39	3	5	6	8	11
40	3	5	7	8	12
41	3	6	7	10	12
42	3	8	10	11	12
43	4	5	7	8	9
44	4	5	9	11	12
45	4	6	7	8	10
46	4	7	9	10	11
47	4	7	9	11	12
48	5	6	10	11	12
49	5	8	9	10	12
50	6	7	9	11	12

If the previous day's lottery numbers are {10, 13, 20, 22, 28}, then the draw mean is D_m = (10 + 13 + 20 + 22 + 28) / 5, D_m = 93 / 5 or D_m = 18.6 and the Integer value is then D_i = Int(18.6) or D_i = 18. The the wheel numbers then become {18 - 5, 18 - 4, 18 - 3, 18 - 2, 18 - 1, 18, 18 + 1, 18 + 2, 18 + 3, 18 + 4, 18 + 5, 18 + 6} or {13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24} and when applied to the list of combinations, the wheel becomes the play or prediction post lines as follows:

Index	A	B	C	D	E
1	13	14	15	17	19
2	13	14	15	17	24
3	13	14	16	19	20
4	13	14	17	18	24
5	13	14	17	19	22
6	13	14	18	19	23
7	13	14	18	21	22
8	13	15	16	18	23
9	13	15	16	20	21
10	13	15	17	18	24
11	13	15	18	19	20
12	13	16	17	19	23
13	13	16	17	20	21
14	13	16	17	20	22
15	13	16	17	21	24
16	13	16	18	21	23
17	13	16	18	22	24
18	13	16	20	22	24
19	13	17	19	22	23
20	13	17	20	21	23
21	13	17	20	22	24
22	14	15	16	18	21
23	14	15	16	21	22
24	14	15	17	21	23
25	14	15	18	21	22
26	14	15	19	20	22
27	14	15	19	21	23
28	14	15	20	21	24
29	14	16	19	22	23
30	14	17	18	19	23
31	14	18	19	22	24
32	14	18	20	22	23
33	14	18	20	22	24
34	14	19	20	23	24
35	15	16	18	23	24
36	15	16	19	21	24
37	15	16	20	21	22
38	15	17	18	20	21
39	15	17	18	20	23
40	15	17	19	20	24
41	15	18	19	22	24
42	15	20	22	23	24
43	16	17	19	20	21
44	16	17	21	23	24
45	16	18	19	20	22
46	16	19	21	22	23
47	16	19	21	23	24
48	17	18	22	23	24
49	17	20	21	22	24
50	18	19	21	23	24

This process is done for each days drawing and posting.

Distributions and Analysis

There are three distributions that will be looked at and analyzed. They are the lottery and wheel numbers distributions and the draw span distribution. The table below shows a 60 draw example of lottery numbers, wheel numbers and draw span for each draw.

Index	Lottery Numbers					Draw Span	Wheel Numbers
Index	A	B	C	D	E	Draw Span	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
0	1	13	19	20	24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1	2	3	5	15	22	20	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
2	2	10	20	22	26	24	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
3	1	6	10	21	27	26	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
4	2	3	5	12	20	18	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19
5	2	4	16	17	25	23	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
6	13	17	19	27	30	17	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
7	3	12	23	29	30	27	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27
8	16	20	22	25	28	12	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
9	7	11	18	19	23	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
10	4	5	13	23	30	26	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
11	13	17	20	22	26	13	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
12	9	22	24	29	30	21	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
13	22	24	26	27	30	8	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
14	5	10	18	26	29	24	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31
15	3	10	12	16	19	16	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23
16	2	8	20	25	28	26	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
17	2	19	20	25	26	24	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
18	5	6	9	13	21	16	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
19	5	12	19	21	24	19	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
20	2	14	22	26	31	29	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
21	4	8	9	13	26	22	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
22	10	13	17	19	30	20	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
23	4	6	9	11	12	8	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23
24	1	10	21	29	30	29	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
25	1	2	12	21	26	25	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
26	1	7	15	16	20	19	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
27	2	7	8	13	25	23	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
28	5	7	17	18	21	16	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
29	1	18	25	27	29	28	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19
30	4	5	15	17	29	25	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26
31	1	19	20	26	28	27	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
32	8	9	13	16	24	16	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
33	4	7	18	20	30	26	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
34	3	4	10	14	17	14	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
35	2	3	9	11	24	22	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
36	3	7	19	20	26	23	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
37	21	22	23	26	28	7	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
38	10	12	24	25	27	17	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30
39	4	9	14	18	24	20	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
40	3	5	17	23	29	26	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19
41	2	3	6	12	28	26	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
42	8	11	15	18	21	13	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
43	7	15	16	23	27	20	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
44	9	15	16	17	28	19	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23
45	2	6	7	9	24	22	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23
46	1	19	20	25	27	26	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
47	1	14	15	21	26	25	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
48	3	5	6	12	13	10	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
49	2	7	10	12	18	16	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
50	4	8	17	19	28	24	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
51	3	9	11	14	22	19	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
52	1	7	10	12	29	28	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
53	7	13	14	30	31	24	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
54	1	4	11	14	17	16	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
55	1	8	10	22	25	24	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
56	3	14	16	24	29	26	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19
57	18	19	23	25	26	8	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23
58	2	9	21	22	23	21	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
59	4	5	8	9	14	10	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
60	5	8	11	15	20	15	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14

The numbers in each column heading of Lottery Numbers, Draw Span and Wheel Numbers can be tallied to find each headings distribution of numbers. For this example, the following tables show their respective distributions.

Number	Frequencies
Number	Wheel	Draw
1	0	11
2	1	14
3	4	12
4	10	11
5	12	12
6	16	6
7	20	11
8	24	9
9	27	12
10	36	11
11	39	7
12	44	11
13	48	10
14	52	9
15	50	8
16	45	8
17	46	11
18	42	9
19	39	11
20	36	12
21	33	10
22	24	11
23	21	8
24	16	9
25	12	10
26	7	13
27	6	7
28	5	7
29	2	9
30	2	9
31	1	2

Value	Span Frequency
1	0
2	0
3	0
4	0
5	0
6	0
7	1
8	3
9	0
10	2
11	0
12	1
13	2
14	1
15	1
16	7
17	2
18	1
19	4
20	4
21	2
22	3
23	3
24	6
25	3
26	8
27	2
28	2
29	2
30	0

The bar graphs of these can be seen next.

The draw span will be referred to later in the post. The wheel and draw distributions will have the Simplified Bidirectional Mean Averaging applied to get the average fluctuations for each data set. The Bidirectional Mean Averaging will be carried out to 8 Iterations for analysis. The next table shows the average fluctuations for each wheel and draw distribution.

Number	Frequencies		Fluctuations
Number	Wheel	Draw	Wheel	Draw
1	0	11	8.296221	11.20978
2	1	14	9.455705	11.12575
3	4	12	11.14963	11.00038
4	10	11	13.31095	10.84371
5	12	12	15.85587	10.67092
6	16	6	18.69422	10.498
7	20	11	21.72728	10.34132
8	24	9	24.8474	10.20175
9	27	12	27.93632	10.07813
10	36	11	30.86472	9.965723
11	39	7	33.49274	9.866072
12	44	11	35.68861	9.785218
13	48	10	37.33592	9.723592
14	52	9	38.34711	9.684897
15	50	8	38.67417	9.672521
16	45	8	38.31653	9.685291
17	46	11	37.31168	9.713629
18	42	9	35.71819	9.739883
19	39	11	33.61597	9.747519
20	36	12	31.09881	9.718874
21	33	10	28.27243	9.641936
22	24	11	25.25336	9.513316
23	21	8	22.16709	9.332396
24	16	9	19.13069	9.102002
25	12	10	16.25005	8.820878
26	7	13	13.61314	8.488693
27	6	7	11.28714	8.112503
28	5	7	9.31464	7.717087
29	2	9	7.720732	7.331684
30	2	9	6.520118	6.99004
31	1	2	5.718166	6.733356

Here is a graph of the data.

Now the fluctuations only.

The fluctuation data then can be applied to an XY plot to show the relationship between the wheel and draw average fluctuation. In the XY plot there will be a green line showing the trend line and some additional information about the line and correlation of the data. The R-square value is the degree of correlation between the wheel and draw fluctuations and the equation of the line is given by y = 8.77 + 0.0326x. The R-square value is close to 0, meaning the data in (wheel fluctuation) has a low influence on the data out (draw fluctuation) and can be visually verified by the points and their respective distances from the line.

Next, these basic processes of finding fluctuations and correlation will be applied to some actual draw data in a pretest, Experiment 0.

The Pretest, Experiment 0

For this part, the data can be accessed through the following link for reference, Experiment 0 Data. Experiment 0 never posted any wheels to the Lottery Post's prediction board and was never played in the Badger 5 game. It is the 60 draw data from 2007-08-06 to 2007-10-04. The following graphs are the wheel and draw distributions, their fluctuations and the XY Plot and correlation.

From the graphs, an inference can be made based on the R-square value and the XY Plot. The low R-square value shows there is a low relationship between the wheel numbers (data in) to the draw numbers (data out). Also, from the visual inspection of the plot, the data points are fairly far from the trend line, meaning this tends to suggest there is a low relationship between the wheel and the draw. This is what would be reasonably expected for a random event where no wheel was played or posted. In a truly random setting, it is also reasonable to expect a low correlation if the wheel is played or posted. In the next step, there needs to be a setup for attention grabbing to get those who could possibly be involved to play along. Then Experiment 1 can be tested to see if there is a relationship between data in (wheel) and data out (draw).

The Setup and Cost Effective Approach

Ever had that feeling you're being watched? The feeling goes something like this: You work out a really great system for analyzing and playing numbers in a specific lottery game. You've done all the research, worked all the loose ends and then comes the time to either play or post your find. It works great and then like someone switching off a light, it goes cold.

Well, in the case of posting on the Lottery Post, I think there might be a reason. It's described in one word, discredit. One of the most effective ways of discouraging many people from playing a proven method is to show it doesn't work. I think this is what could be happening at the Lottery Post.

Unfortunately for the ones watching, this can prove to be a very cost effective way of proving the opening sentence in this post. If a $50.00 wheel were played for 60 draws, that would be a $3000.00 cost to play. Far beyond my ability to afford. So, basically I needed a way to attract attention and get the eye of those who would be watching. Loud mouthing, posting wheels and systems seems to have worked. Instead of actually playing the $50.00 wheel, I've used the watchful eye as an advantage.

Next is the heart of this post, Experiment 1.

The Test, Experiment 1

The Excel Sheet for the data and graphs can be found here, Experiment 1 Data. Experiment 1 posted wheels on the Lottery Post's prediction board during the period 2007-10-05 to 2007-12-03, a total of 60 draws. The following are the distributions, fluctuations and correlation graphs for the data.

In the fluctuations graph, there is an obvious visual correlation between the data in (wheel) and the data out (draw). As the wheel number fluctuation increases, the draw number fluctuation decreases and the same is true in the opposite, as the wheel number fluctuation decreases, the draw number fluctuation increases. This would tend to suggest there may be a negative correlation between the two. Following this graph is the XY plot that can help in determining the correlation.

Next is the XY plot of the fluctuations and shows the plotted data points and tend line. In the lower right are the R-square value and line equation based on 31 data points.

From the graphs, it visually shows there is a possible correlation between the data in (wheel) to the data out (draw), the points are very close to the line. From the the R-square value of 0.957, it's very close to 1 and suggests there is a close correlation between the wheel and draw data, numerically. The -0.0526 value in the line equation suggests there is a negative correlation between the data in (wheel) and the data out (draw). As a comparison between the before and after, examine the XY plots of both Experiment 0 and 1. There is a dramatic difference between the two. Below is the XY plot for Experiment 0.

Going back to the distributions graph, looking at just the wheel data, there appears to be something like a normal distribution curve. Below is a bar graph of just the wheel distribution data; this data can be analyzed to find a mean wheel number and standard deviation. The mean and standard deviation can then be used to find what are the 50% of the highest frequently posted wheel numbers. In other words, where does the bulk of the wheel numbers lay? The mean value is just the average of all the wheel numbers that are to be inserted into the combinations of the wheel and the standard deviation is the value related to those numbers, also.

To find the wheel number mean, add up all the numbers that are to be inserted in the wheel combinations and divided by the total set of numbers. The wheel number mean is then equal to 16.11667. The standard deviation value for the wheel numbers is 5.24639. This operation can be found in the Experiment 1 Data Excel file by click on the bottom tab, Wheel # Analysis. These values can then be used to create a normal distribution curve and find the 50% bulk of the wheel numbers. Below is a graph of the wheel distribution and normal distribution.

The graph shows there is a peak at the number 16; this is consistent with the mean value of 16.11667. Also, looking at the graph there appears to be a bulk of the data centered around the mean. To find the 50% bulk of the data that is closest to the mean and is 25% above and 25% below the mean can be determined by multiplying the standard deviation by 0.674489524681121 and then adding and subtracting it from the mean. This will produce a lower limit and upper limit of where the 50% bulk of the data is falling. The lower limit is

L_b = 16.11667 - (0.674489524681121 * 5.24639)
L_b = 16.11667 - 3.53864
L_b = 12.57803

L_u = 16.11667 + (0.674489524681121 * 5.24639)
L_u = 16.11667 + 3.53864
L_u = 19.65530

The L_b and L_u values can now establish a set of high work bulk numbers that represent the highest frequency numbers where the work is being done by the wheel. The set of numbers are going to be the integer values that are greater than L_b and less than L_u; these are {13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19}. In addition to the high work bulk of numbers, there is a counter part that shows the low work bulk of numbers where the least amount of work is being done. It is also 50% of the numbers and is the remaining set of numbers not covered by the high work bulk numbers of {13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19}; they are {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31}.

It's important to understand these as what numbers are doing the most work and how this relates to the numbers being drawn by the lottery. Below is a distribution table of the drawn lottery numbers. From this table it can be shown what are the highest frequency numbers and lowest frequency numbers by finding the mean or average frequency of the table.

Number	Draw
1	11
2	11
3	9
4	10
5	8
6	13
7	12
8	12
9	10
10	11
11	11
12	6
13	6
14	9
15	9
16	7
17	10
18	8
19	4
20	14
21	5
22	14
23	10
24	6
25	14
26	6
27	10
28	13
29	7
30	12
31	12

From this an average frequency can be found by summing the frequencies and dividing by the total numbers in the set. The average frequency is 9.67742 and can be used to setup a table that shows the numbers below average and above average.

Experiment 1
Draw Number Frequencies
Below average	Above average
3	1
5	2
12	4
13	6
14	7
15	8
16	9
18	10
19	11
21	17
24	20
26	22
29	23
	25
	27
	28
	30
	31

The table shows the high work bulk wheel numbers in gray. It also shows that almost half of the below average draw number frequencies are the high work bulk wheel numbers. The same was applied to Experiment 0. The data can be accessed in this link, Experiment 0 Data. The following is the table for Experiment 0 showing the below average and above average draw number frequencies. As it turns out, the high work bulk wheel numbers have the same set of numbers in Experiment 0, {13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19}.

Experiment 0
Draw Number Frequencies
Below average	Above average
2	1
6	3
7	4
8	5
9	10
11	12
15	13
16	14
18	17
21	19
25	20
26	22
28	23
30	24
27
29
31

Notice the high work bulk numbers are fairly evenly distributed between the below average and above average draw number frequencies and there is actually more by count in the above average column.

The draw span also changed slightly between Experiment 0 and 1. Below are some graphs showing the change. The shift can be seen where the peek of each fluctuation line is. In Experiment 0 the peek is at 23. The peek in Experiment 1 is at 25, meaning there was a slight shift in the span of drawn numbers. This shows the draw span increased slightly during Experiment 1 as compared to Experiment 0.

All this data will play an important role in the next part, the conclusion.

The Conclusion, Experiment 1

Is this possible proof the Wisconsin Lottery Badger 5 Computer Generated Numbers are fixed? Well, looking at just small slice of the possible data that could be derived for this topic, it appears to be fixed. There is the direct relationship between the data in (wheel) and data out (draw) in Experiment 1. Also, the high work bulk wheel numbers are clustered in the low frequency drawn numbers. In addition, the draw span shifted slightly to higher span values.

Some might say, "Well, this is a small sample and the data can interpreted in may ways. Don't think much of it." This is true if it were not for Experiment 2 running currently. The next part will address the implications of the posttest, Experiment 2.

The Posttest, Experiment 2

Experiment 2 is designed to pick up on the low frequency or deficient draw numbers established in Experiment 1. The deficient draw numbers contain almost all the high work bulk wheel numbers established in Experiment 1. To play on these deficient draw number, a wheel with a fixed set of numbers is used to be inserted in a wheel for posting. The numbers are {10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22} and is a total set of 13 numbers. This also contains the high work bulk wheel numbers from Experiment 1, {13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19}.

This setup creates a paradox for the would be wheel watchers. On one hand, if they stop trying to discredit the wheel by returning to a truly random state, the wheel begins to look good. However, on the other hand, if the continue to try and discredit the wheel by randomly manipulating the draw numbers, they will continue the current deficiencies and possibly increase the deficiencies which would go against the very notion of a truly random setting.

There is one other possible choice, but that would lead to something of an admission of guilt, change the play matrix or discontinue the game. The basis is covered, all we have to is watch them watching us.

To be continued... with Experiment 2...

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JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

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Dec 10, 2007, 1:20 am

Update, this table was coded incorrectly. Below is the correct table.
Experiment 0
Draw Number Frequencies
Below average Above average
2 1
6 3
7 4
8 5
9 10
11 12
15 13
16 14
18 17
21 19
25 20
26 22
28 23
30 24
27
29
31

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JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

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Dec 10, 2007, 2:17 am

As a side note, look at the frequency distribution for the draw numbers. See how asymmetrical the pattern is; it seems normal on the left (low numbers), but look how choppy the pattern is on the right (higher numbers).
Seems to me, whatever software that could possibly be used to randomly hide the act of fixing the draws, ain't workin'.

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JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

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Dec 10, 2007, 2:45 am

Also, clarification on a point made at the end of the post. "...possibly increase the deficiencies..." means the difference between the high frequency and low frequency would increase, not the number frequencies themselves.

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Todd

50

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Dec 10, 2007, 8:03 am

Wow, that's a tremendous, well-written document. Nice job! Impressive use of graphics too. Is this something you've been putting together for a while?
Thanks vey much for sharing this and for writing it up so well. I'm looking forward to reading your next installments!

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Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
Help eliminate computerized drawings!
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

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Dec 10, 2007, 8:10 am

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Dec 10, 2007
Wow, that's a tremendous, well-written document. Nice job! Impressive use of graphics too. Is this something you've been putting together for a while?
Thanks vey much for sharing this and for writing it up so well. I'm looking forward to reading your next installments!

Yes, it was about 1 - 1.5 years in the making for this porject. I first thought about using the Lottery Post in this way a few years before I actually came up with the final plan.
As for Experiment 2, just watch the posted numbers on the Lottery Post prediction board and the WI Lottery Badger 5. I'll update this topic as needed. I've already stated at the end of the first post of what to look for as far as the numbers go.

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Thoth

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Dec 11, 2007, 12:51 am

Ouch! my head hurts now! So much to absord and so little time (as absorbing all that would require me to go to school for a good couple of years and get a math degree of some sort , lol)
Awsome post though!
I've often wondered about Indiana's lottery and how to prove it was rigged. I think the easiest and most compelling result would be to put in FOI request with the state pertaining all the sales data and compare the amounts of each combination sold against the actual draw results (say the last two years worth). Then use all the expected and normal frequencies as you have outlined and compare them to what's probable and whats actually coming up in relationship to the sales of each combination. I wonder how many "winning" combos come from the most profitable group of low selling combos each day.

~Probability=Odds in Motion~
nanolike

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Dec 11, 2007, 1:42 am

I would suggest that no one ad JADElottery long message into your reply. Could you imagine 8 or 9 people including JADELottery's message and their reply. Wow that might be the longest thread ever!

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JADELottery

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Dec 11, 2007, 1:48 am

Quote: Originally posted by Thoth on Dec 11, 2007
Ouch! my head hurts now! So much to absord and so little time (as absorbing all that would require me to go to school for a good couple of years and get a math degree of some sort , lol)
Awsome post though!
I've often wondered about Indiana's lottery and how to prove it was rigged. I think the easiest and most compelling result would be to put in FOI request with the state pertaining all the sales data and compare the amounts of each combination sold against the actual draw results (say the last two years worth). Then use all the expected and normal frequencies as you have outlined and compare them to what's probable and whats actually coming up in relationship to the sales of each combination. I wonder how many "winning" combos come from the most profitable group of low selling combos each day.

You hit on a good point, "...what's probable and whats actually coming up...". Experiment 2 is working on that now. If the deficiencies continue, then it becomes more and more provable that what is happening is very improbable.
I was actually expecting to find nothing when I started this, but when the data started coming within two weeks and I saw what was happening, WOW... I was surprised. I didn't think it would take effect that soon.

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JADELottery

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Dec 11, 2007, 1:55 am

Quote: Originally posted by nanolike on Dec 11, 2007
I would suggest that no one ad JADElottery long message into your reply. Could you imagine 8 or 9 people including JADELottery's message and their reply. Wow that might be the longest thread ever!

You're right. It would have been even bigger had I not put most of the data in the Excel Sheets. Whew! We'd be here all night downloading just one page.

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nanolike

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Dec 11, 2007, 2:18 am

Hows life outside your lottery research? How the Family? Friends? Yeah its alota graphs!
Even if you could prove the lottery was rigged/fixed whatever? This is what i believe you are assuming correct?
No one cares enough to do a thing about it! And those who do, already have enough on their plate politically. And those who might care will say "yeah i thought it was too" And those who do know its fixed will say "Tell me something I don't know!"
I am assuming you are suggesting the lottery is fixed because you see certain things occurring that really shouldn't in the normal scheme of life. Or not occurring that should?
I suggest you leave it alone and move on to important things in life.
Even if you could prove the lottery was rigged, that would simply mean that the "corrupt people" running the lottery are just that! CORRUPT!
What makes you think after you "prove" to a judge and jury that "their lottery is rigged", in some fashion, that you are going to win your case?
If they rigged the lottery you can "best be sure" the judge as well as the jury will be paid off handsomely.
Even if someone has to go to Prison, they will do their "Martha Stewart time" they will get out, and have a nice little "nest egg life" waiting for them in Puru somewhere for being the one who took the rap for the "rest of them."
He/she will be herald as their "hero" so the whole card house didn't come crumbling down on yop of them!
The lottery will go on "unharmed" and "run along smooth" as can ever.
Do you really think you are going to take out the Wisconsin Lottery out with some little graphs and such!
Nice graphs I must add but regardless. I don't think so!
No one on earth will be able to in any way by proofs of graphs or literature take out the lottery!
IMPOSSIBLE! They have their own graphs and literature I might add.
As far as winning I would suggest that you think real real hard on this one.
If the lottery that you suggest is corrupt in someway.
Do you really think you're going to win it? !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Of course not!
Your lottery jackpot is your family and friends and loved ones and special people you have met along the way in life.
That's all I have to say.
Yes this means you might have to get back to living.
Good luck to you.
I don't think your crazy only side-tracked.

It's a NanoLike World!
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

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Dec 11, 2007, 2:46 am

Quote: Originally posted by nanolike on Dec 11, 2007
Hows life outside your lottery research? How the Family? Friends? Yeah its alota graphs!
Even if you could prove the lottery was rigged/fixed whatever? This is what i believe you are assuming correct?
No one cares enough to do a thing about it! And those who do, already have enough on their plate politically. And those who might care will say "yeah i thought it was too" And those who do know its fixed will say "Tell me something I don't know!"
I am assuming you are suggesting the lottery is fixed because you see certain things occurring that really shouldn't in the normal scheme of life. Or not occurring that should?
I suggest you leave it alone and move on to important things in life.
Even if you could prove the lottery was rigged, that would simply mean that the "corrupt people" running the lottery are just that! CORRUPT!
What makes you think after you "prove" to a judge and jury that "their lottery is rigged", in some fashion, that you are going to win your case?
If they rigged the lottery you can "best be sure" the judge as well as the jury will be paid off handsomely.
Even if someone has to go to Prison, they will do their "Martha Stewart time" they will get out, and have a nice little "nest egg life" waiting for them in Puru somewhere for being the one who took the rap for the "rest of them."
He/she will be herald as their "hero" so the whole card house didn't come crumbling down on yop of them!
The lottery will go on "unharmed" and "run along smooth" as can ever.
Do you really think you are going to take out the Wisconsin Lottery out with some little graphs and such!
Nice graphs I must add but regardless. I don't think so!
No one on earth will be able to in any way by proofs of graphs or literature take out the lottery!
IMPOSSIBLE! They have their own graphs and literature I might add.
As far as winning I would suggest that you think real real hard on this one.
If the lottery that you suggest is corrupt in someway.
Do you really think you're going to win it? !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Of course not!
Your lottery jackpot is your family and friends and loved ones and special people you have met along the way in life.
That's all I have to say.
Yes this means you might have to get back to living.
Good luck to you.
I don't think your crazy only side-tracked.

Strange, seems contradictory to the poll you started, State lottery discovered corrupt!
From what I can read in the poll/topic, it appears we'd have something in common. However, this reply seems to say otherwise.
Hmmm...

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nanolike

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Dec 11, 2007, 3:03 am

We'll in way we think alike but the difference is, I've found out what I needed and moved on.
I trust you are still lingering in the thoughts that the lottery can be won by some strategy that you incorporate in your playing, or you can somehow prove the lottery is rigged and then by doing so win it, or perhaps prove to the world that it is rigged/fixed then be some sort of hero for doing so. Not gonna happen! No one cares. Unfortunately.
Been there done that!

I've even tracked down multi-million dollar winners and spoke with them personally. They're responce was, I dont need anyones help I am going to win the lottery again on my own. So even with a so called perfect strategy that you might have and want to join up with a past lottery winner, the people who win the lottery either do not want your help to win it again or they simply do not play by a strategy any longer and simply get $10 worth in quick picks, they say "if we win we win if we dont o well."
They dont really give it to much thought any more.
At least this is my own experience after speaking with them.
Sometimes I've spoken with then for upwards to 30 minutes to 45 minutes and it makes me wonder if they won the lottery at all or if they are just saying they did, you know "paid to say!" I'm not talking about people who pretend they won, I've talked to people who the lottery website says won, I track them down and speak with them personally those are who I've talked with.
I have spoken with multi-millionaires who apparently have won the lottery. I didnt much see any of their money so I cant PROVE it unless the IRS is on my side but other than that.
Sure they had a nice car or house but lots of people have that. I suppose the lottery could hand pick people and give them a certain amount to simply say they won, "paid to say" that happens in other vocations and I suppose that would appear somewhat dillusional on my part but I cant prove they didn't win, the lottery website says they won so?
Once I came across an obituary of a lottery winner, that the website said won but when I checked it out that same lottery winner who apparently won had been dead for 3 years prior to winning the lottery. ? I thought that was sort of strange.

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LANTERN

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May 4, 2004
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Dec 11, 2007, 3:03 am

Quote: Originally posted by nanolike on Dec 11, 2007
Hows life outside your lottery research? How the Family? Friends? Yeah its alota graphs!
Even if you could prove the lottery was rigged/fixed whatever? This is what i believe you are assuming correct?
No one cares enough to do a thing about it! And those who do, already have enough on their plate politically. And those who might care will say "yeah i thought it was too" And those who do know its fixed will say "Tell me something I don't know!"
I am assuming you are suggesting the lottery is fixed because you see certain things occurring that really shouldn't in the normal scheme of life. Or not occurring that should?
I suggest you leave it alone and move on to important things in life.
Even if you could prove the lottery was rigged, that would simply mean that the "corrupt people" running the lottery are just that! CORRUPT!
What makes you think after you "prove" to a judge and jury that "their lottery is rigged", in some fashion, that you are going to win your case?
If they rigged the lottery you can "best be sure" the judge as well as the jury will be paid off handsomely.
Even if someone has to go to Prison, they will do their "Martha Stewart time" they will get out, and have a nice little "nest egg life" waiting for them in Puru somewhere for being the one who took the rap for the "rest of them."
He/she will be herald as their "hero" so the whole card house didn't come crumbling down on yop of them!
The lottery will go on "unharmed" and "run along smooth" as can ever.
Do you really think you are going to take out the Wisconsin Lottery out with some little graphs and such!
Nice graphs I must add but regardless. I don't think so!
No one on earth will be able to in any way by proofs of graphs or literature take out the lottery!
IMPOSSIBLE! They have their own graphs and literature I might add.
As far as winning I would suggest that you think real real hard on this one.
If the lottery that you suggest is corrupt in someway.
Do you really think you're going to win it? !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Of course not!
Your lottery jackpot is your family and friends and loved ones and special people you have met along the way in life.
That's all I have to say.
Yes this means you might have to get back to living.
Good luck to you.
I don't think your crazy only side-tracked.

I think that you are right in what I read of your post, I didn't read all of it!
But Let Douglas be, this is what he wants to do and is doing, it might help him with lottery prediction in some way.
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

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Dec 11, 2007, 3:18 am

Quote: Originally posted by nanolike on Dec 11, 2007
We'll in way we think alike but the difference is, I've found out what I needed and moved on.
I trust you are still lingering in the thoughts that the lottery can be won by some strategy that you incorporate in your playing, or you can somehow prove the lottery is rigged and then by doing so win it, or perhaps prove to the world that it is rigged/fixed then be some sort of hero for doing so. Not gonna happen! No one cares. Unfortunately.
Been there done that!

I've even tracked down multi-million dollar winners and spoke with them personally. They're responce was, I dont need anyones help I am going to win the lottery again on my own. So even with a so called perfect strategy that you might have and want to join up with a past lottery winner, the people who win the lottery either do not want your help to win it again or they simply do not play by a strategy any longer and simply get $10 worth in quick picks, they say "if we win we win if we dont o well."
They dont really give it to much thought any more.
At least this is my own experience after speaking with them.
Sometimes I've spoken with then for upwards to 30 minutes to 45 minutes and it makes me wonder if they won the lottery at all or if they are just saying they did, you know "paid to say!" I'm not talking about people who pretend they won, I've talked to people who the lottery website says won, I track them down and speak with them personally those are who I've talked with.
I have spoken with multi-millionaires who apparently have won the lottery. I didnt much see any of their money so I cant PROVE it unless the IRS is on my side but other than that.
Sure they had a nice car or house but lots of people have that. I suppose the lottery could hand pick people and give them a certain amount to simply say they won, "paid to say" that happens in other vocations and I suppose that would appear somewhat dillusional on my part but I cant prove they didn't win, the lottery website says they won so?
Once I came across an obituary of a lottery winner, that the website said won but when I checked it out that same lottery winner who apparently won had been dead for 3 years prior to winning the lottery. ? I thought that was sort of strange.

Great, glad to see you have moved on.
Me hero, heh... I'm the furthest thing from a hero. I'd probably go so far as to say I'm an anti-hero, but enough of that.
Not going to happen? Well, that remains to be seen. They don't me ver-wee well, do they?
No one care? I'm not so sure that's an absolute fact. Ya might want to research that again.
As for tracking people down, that sounds more like a personal problem I'd rather not open up.
Good luck to ya.

The One Over None
I Know...

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