Mega Millions 2008Prev Topic Next Topic

New Topic New Poll

How High Will The Current Mega Millions Bounce?

No higher than tonight/$179million

[ 0 ]

[ 0.0% ]

$220 million

[ 6 ]

[ 24.0% ]

$260 million

[ 6 ]

[ 24.0% ]

$300 million

[ 6 ]

[ 24.0% ]

$350 million

[ 3 ]

[ 12.0% ]

$420 million

[ 4 ]

[ 16.0% ]

Total valid votes

[ 25 ]

Discarded votes

[ 1 ]

delS

md
United States
Member #14,047
April 20, 2005
627 Posts
Offline

Feb 15, 2008, 5:59 pm

I think we'll get up to $300 million
benmas

Rhode Island
United States
Member #56,008
October 28, 2007
439 Posts
Offline

Feb 15, 2008, 8:55 pm

Quote: Originally posted by delS on Feb 15, 2008
I think we'll get up to $300 million

my opinion is most likely not...15 2nd places last time..its getting close...ticket sales were strong in jersey today...their advertisment campaign is doing good...i voted for no more than $260 mill this year
dvdiva

United States
Member #2,338
September 17, 2003
2,063 Posts
Offline

Feb 16, 2008, 12:54 am

Well the first option is already wrong. Big question is if it can break 200M in cash (currently 330M annuity) and I say no. I'm guessing the current run will last until Friday when the jackpot is around 280. I might get tickets this time though since I doubt it will even roll once more.

If it rolls twice it will surpass the old record of $370 but I seriously doubt that's going to happen.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline

Feb 16, 2008, 12:59 am

At $220M, it's time to start spending a little extra. That's a cash value of $130M+.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
ThatScaryChick

Idaho
United States
Member #56,504
November 21, 2007
8,002 Posts
Offline

Feb 16, 2008, 1:03 am

It would be neat to see it go above $300 million, but I have a feeling it will be hit before then.

"X - youtube - steam - instagram"

ThatScaryChick
KY Floyd

NY
United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
4,772 Posts
Offline

Feb 17, 2008, 2:29 am

Quote: Originally posted by benmas on Feb 15, 2008
my opinion is most likely not...15 2nd places last time..its getting close...ticket sales were strong in jersey today...their advertisment campaign is doing good...i voted for no more than $260 mill this year

Especially with PB at $100 million, it will take 2 more rolls before MM passes the $300 million mark, but that isn't all that unlikely. Fifteen 5+0 winners when there are 46 mega numbers means that no more than 1/3 of the mega numbers were played for that combination. The current increase in the cash value is about $25 million, which means they expect to sell about 75 million tickets. Accounting for duplicate combinations, roughly 35% of combinations will be played, so there's a 65% chance it will roll. If that happens there will be roughly a 60% chance of rolling again. That gives us about a 40% chance of two more rolls, which would probably get us to 350 or so. The 390 million record was just under a year ago, and the last two rolls took it from 216 to 275 and then 390. If PB gets hit on the next drawing we might see the very high 300's again, and a decent chance of reaching 400. There's perhaps a 15% chance of 3 rolls, which could well push it to the half billion dollar mark. That would be a nice way to finish leap day.
benmas

Rhode Island
United States
Member #56,008
October 28, 2007
439 Posts
Offline

Feb 17, 2008, 3:10 am

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Feb 17, 2008
Especially with PB at $100 million, it will take 2 more rolls before MM passes the $300 million mark, but that isn't all that unlikely. Fifteen 5+0 winners when there are 46 mega numbers means that no more than 1/3 of the mega numbers were played for that combination. The current increase in the cash value is about $25 million, which means they expect to sell about 75 million tickets. Accounting for duplicate combinations, roughly 35% of combinations will be played, so there's a 65% chance it will roll. If that happens there will be roughly a 60% chance of rolling again. That gives us about a 40% chance of two more rolls, which would probably get us to 350 or so. The 390 million record was just under a year ago, and the last two rolls took it from 216 to 275 and then 390. If PB gets hit on the next drawing we might see the very high 300's again, and a decent chance of reaching 400. There's perhaps a 15% chance of 3 rolls, which could well push it to the half billion dollar mark. That would be a nice way to finish leap day.

thank you for your explanation....however i do not understand the connection between powerball and the mega rolling....i don"t think the two games have anything to do with each other rolls...

can you please explain why do you think that PB could influence the mega to roll at these jackpot levels...I think whether the mega hits or not is indipendent of powerball jackpot..maybe you think that somehow the # of tickets sold is being inflenced by # of sales of other lottos???

personally i don't beleive it could ever go beyond 400 mill....in the $300s it starts a big betting frenzy..and when it makes headline news even people who never play will jump in to take a shot...also in the past the number of 5+0 winners in the $300 levels is averaging ~35 so nearly an 3/4 shot of matching bonus #...$ half a bill is ridiculous... practically would never happen with current format...with 176 million combos you can buy the jackpot at those levels..but the ? is the uncertainty of others hitting it also
h8registrations

United States
Member #32,019
February 6, 2006
1 Post
Offline

Feb 17, 2008, 9:11 am

MegaMillions ticket sales are down compare to this recent 330 jackpot. If this thing shatters the record jackpot of over 390 or not, 220 is large. Throw out the odds calculator and consider Mega a raffle game, someone going to do some big-boy-toy shopping.
fja

100

United States
Member #91
January 19, 2002
16,125 Posts
Offline

Feb 17, 2008, 9:38 am

Quote: Originally posted by benmas on Feb 17, 2008
thank you for your explanation....however i do not understand the connection between powerball and the mega rolling....i don"t think the two games have anything to do with each other rolls...

can you please explain why do you think that PB could influence the mega to roll at these jackpot levels...I think whether the mega hits or not is indipendent of powerball jackpot..maybe you think that somehow the # of tickets sold is being inflenced by # of sales of other lottos???

personally i don't beleive it could ever go beyond 400 mill....in the $300s it starts a big betting frenzy..and when it makes headline news even people who never play will jump in to take a shot...also in the past the number of 5+0 winners in the $300 levels is averaging ~35 so nearly an 3/4 shot of matching bonus #...$ half a bill is ridiculous... practically would never happen with current format...with 176 million combos you can buy the jackpot at those levels..but the ? is the uncertainty of others hitting it also

I believe he means that a portion of power ball players are more likely to stay in there state and play Pb for 100+million than to travel to a MM state and by tickets,,,and vice versa.....If one hits than you will see an increase in sales on the other game, especially in the border cities.......

"Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!" = W.C.Fields
dvdiva

United States
Member #2,338
September 17, 2003
2,063 Posts
Offline

Feb 17, 2008, 11:52 am

Quote: Originally posted by h8registrations on Feb 17, 2008
MegaMillions ticket sales are down compare to this recent 330 jackpot. If this thing shatters the record jackpot of over 390 or not, 220 is large. Throw out the odds calculator and consider Mega a raffle game, someone going to do some big-boy-toy shopping.

Well I don't know where you got your numbers from but at lottoreports.com it shows that sales are in fact up for this drawing. In fact if you compare the $330 drawing to this one sales are up $10M for the 2/15 draw and $4M for the drawing before that. It helps that neither game has had a large jackpot since August of last year.

This run even has higher sales than the run that made it to $370. Unlike that run however I think someone will hit the jackpot in the next two drawings.
benmas

Rhode Island
United States
Member #56,008
October 28, 2007
439 Posts
Offline

Feb 17, 2008, 1:44 pm

Quote: Originally posted by fja on Feb 17, 2008
I believe he means that a portion of power ball players are more likely to stay in there state and play Pb for 100+million than to travel to a MM state and by tickets,,,and vice versa.....If one hits than you will see an increase in sales on the other game, especially in the border cities.......

thanks fja...thats what i thought initially but still not enough to make a significant difference in my mind because part of that will be offset by two things: the people who never play but who decide to get in at $300 mill levels...i have noticed that people go for the big bucks anyway given two choices and most people will play both... it gives them additional opportunity to strike it rich...at the end is the luck of the draw that ultimately decides the rolling
JackpotWanna

United States
Member #4,121
March 23, 2004
819 Posts
Offline

Feb 19, 2008, 8:09 am

I voted $420 million. Let the dreaming begin.
ThatScaryChick

Idaho
United States
Member #56,504
November 21, 2007
8,002 Posts
Offline

Feb 19, 2008, 11:15 am

Quote: Originally posted by JackpotWanna on Feb 19, 2008
I voted $420 million. Let the dreaming begin.

I really don't see it reaching that high, unless they change the matrix.

"X - youtube - steam - instagram"

ThatScaryChick
dvdiva

United States
Member #2,338
September 17, 2003
2,063 Posts
Offline

Feb 19, 2008, 5:21 pm

It would have to roll three times to break $400. IF (and that's a big if) it rolls tonight it will probably go 220, 275, 350, 440.

Might go to 360 and 450 if sales hold. Either way I think it's getting hit tonight or Friday.
dvdiva

United States
Member #2,338
September 17, 2003
2,063 Posts
Offline

Feb 20, 2008, 12:15 am

Well it looks like it rolled again. Only one more drawing before breaking the 300 mark.

New Topic New Poll

Subscribe to this topic

Mega Millions 2008Prev TopicNext Topic

Mega Millions 2008Prev Topic Next Topic