"1 in 146.1 million to 1 in 195.2 million."

Powerball lottery to have larger jackpot, but harder to win

Basically the same thing they said about the last 2 matrix changes and we all know how that worked out jackpots were won at or about the same dollar amounts as in previous matrix's. None of them never reached the projected 400 to 500 million dollar amount.

I'll join you, JAP69

195 million is about 64% of the 305 million population of the United States, including children, people in prison, patients in comas, etc.

The bottom line is - someone will win.   So will you be that very lucky person the Lottery fairy flies over and sprinkles her (or his) dust on, or will you be 1 or 2 numbers off for the rest of your life?

Yeah, I'm wondering if it will reach the 400 or 500 dollar amount. I'm thinking it won't.

I'm thinking maybe they should have bit the bullet and made it a billion to 1 so they could finally break the $400 million jackpot amount.  (Yes, I'm saying this in jest.)

Well, the way the odds are now for actually winning the jackpot, they might as well have.

     I could be wrong (it happened once before), but it seems to me that these matrix changes could be brought about by too many people winning major prizes too often. If that's the case, then it's just barely possible that some of those "systems" out there actually work the way they're supposed to.

     Regardless of their reasons, I'd like to read the agreement the MUSL signed with Florida to see what types of incentives were offered to change the location of the drawings. My guess is that the MUSL won't be paying any state taxes on their profits for the next five or ten years. There's nothing wrong with that, of course; large corporations in every state are offered similar tax incentives because they provide jobs there. I only wonder about it because I'm curious to know what sparked the decision to move the game to Florida.

     The MUSL and MegaMillions don't sell scratch-offs, so ALL of their profits must be derived from online ticket sales. Over the past ten years or so, we've seen state lotteries introduce scratch-off tickets with progressively higher purchase prices and larger top prize amounts, but with fewer winners overall. When the top prizes in those games are won too quickly (long before the game is scheduled to end), lawsuits are filed because lottery officials don't like to tell us we can't win the amounts advertised. One would think these legal actions would severely cut into state lottery profits, but they don't. Their standard defense, which has proved out to be very effective is, "Oops; we accidentally made a mistake. Sorry."

     Conversely, when too many people win too much money too quickly in the multi-state games, they change the matrix in order to shore up their annual profits. I don't believe it's a coincidence that these changes come either in October or January, as these months represent the beginning of the fiscal year for most American corporations. 

     PowerBall is the only game I play in Indiana. Sometimes I drive to Michigan and buy fifteen dollars worth of MegaMillions tickets for three draws (for a total of $45) when their jackpot reaches the stratosphere. The bottom line is, large jackpots drive record ticket sales, and I believe the new PowerBall matrix, and the addition of several million more players in Florida, will result in higher jackpots until some LotteryPost.com members gaze deep into the game and figure out how to beat it again.

     One more point: With the continually weakening dollar, we can expect more state lotteries to change their games as well, as they try to stay afloat in a failing economy. I heard on the news last night that another state, Arkansas I think, is trying to privatize its lottery. Apparently, they didn't get the memo from the government that said this would violate federal lottery laws.

     I'll continue playing PowerBall, although I won't spend any more money on the game than I do now. Even if the jackpot reaches $700M, $800M or (dare I say it?) a billion dollars, someone will win it eventually, and the only way to be certain you won't win is by not playing. But what if it never attains those amounts? What if the average jackpot turns out to be only $200 million? Would it be worth a dollar or two to take a chance that you might be the lone ticket-holder for that jackpot? But geez, Jim695, what if someone else has the same numbers I've played? Yep, it would be tough trying to scrape by on a measly fifty or a hundred million, but I'd be perfectly happy with that kind of pocket change.

Just be grateful they don't simply use smoke and mirrors, creating a phony jackpot of 500 milion by changing the annuity payout again. Stretching it out to 35 years, or decreasing the initial payments and adding a ballon payment at the end could easily let them inflate the advertised jackpot by 50%.

I know that MM said they could potentialy see a jackpot of 500 million when they changed the matrix, but I'm not sure if PB every claimed that as a possibility. Even with the new odds, reaching a record level requires an unusually long run without a winner. With odds of 195 milion to 1, there should be about 1 winner for every 195 million tickets, and 195 million tickets means a cash jackpot of about  62 million. Right now that's about 96 million as an annuity, so they need to sell about 4 times the expected number of tickets without a winner in order to set their next record. Because of the rollover cap when a previous record is reached, PB will need to reach record levels at least 6 times to reach the 500 million mark.

As far as why they raised the odds, I doubt it has anything to do with "too many winners". Over the long term, the number of winers is a result of the odds, and I don't think MUSL is actually dumb enough to think a few extra winners at lower jackpots means  there's a problem with the odds. OTOH, I do believe they see that as a problem with sales. Most players just look at the (inflated) size of the advertised jackpot, and the bigger it is, the more tickets they buy. MUSL just wants to create bigger jackpots to drive sales, and while some players may whine, most will just see how big the jackpot is, and buy their tickets.

The drawings move to Florida is all about showbiz.  Isn't there some kind of "Hollywood Studios" in Florida?   

And the matrix change is all about driving sales.  Profits are returned to the state that sold the tickets.  MUSL is a non-profit association of State Lotteries.  The idea is to generate larger jackpots.  Adding population helps, as does changing the matrix.  People used to get excited about a $100 million jackpot.  Now it's closer to $200 million.  Without those huge jackpots driving sales, there's fewer sales and less profit for the individual states. 

Good or bad, Powerball has always been a "jackpot" game.

I agree jim695 they change the matrix so people won't be able to use that data as effectively as they were doing. With only 348 drawings under their belt they must think people are getting a hang on the number flow and by changing the matrix will cause some of the players to starting a new run at a system.

While i don't think 348 drawings is enough history for a great system it was just starting to show some of its numbers patterns or relationships to other digits.

Powerballs previous matrix changes were done in favor of bigger pots and because people were winning smaller pots more often. Oh and because Mega also changed their matrix.

The one little thing, we haven't heard much about, is, where they can put you in a "pool-play"

I wonder if thats still going to be in effect,  or mabey after everyone gets used to the change, they'll spring it on us.

   So,  you get a ticket,   ....say yes to power-play,  and get in a pool,   $10 dollars quickly changes to $30 dollars.  And I guess those'll have to be quick-picks.

I'm not seeing a way to have my own numbers ...and be in a pool,   with my numbers.

Or you can get in a pool, and say No for $20 dollars, I suppose.

People will still win. The jackpots may be higher at times. The lure of bigger jackpots is what attracts more players.

Am glad PB is FINALLY coming to FL.  I am sick of driving to SC for tickets.  FL has NO state income tax so a win here would be SWEET!!

Interesting the drawings were moved to FL also.......I'm hoping the jackpot will roll till the first draw including FL.

Good luck to all that play.

are the odds for winning the lower tier prizes decent???

The jackpot hits will about the same; 12-15 per year, but a bit higher, on average.  The big changes are many more (over 3.5 million) wins per year at the lower levels and instead of about 24 hits at $1 million for the Match 5 prize, Powerball should see about 100 $1 million prizes (in cash) per year for the Match 5 (with Power Play). 

i think the lottery fairy takes a poo when she flies over me...

Depends what you mean by "decent."

2nd prize of $200,000  = 1:5.1M  (extra dollar for Powerplay guarantees $1 million)

$10,000 prize = 1:723K  (Fantasy-5 odds are 1:376K)

$100 prize = 1:19K

Next time you buy a ticket, look for one of the pamphlets on Powerball.  Should be near the Lottery terminal.

This story was out for a while but not mentioned much until this past month. Everytime a big State joins there is a matrix change with more balls and tougher odds for the jackpot. I get burnout when the jackpot keeps increasing but I don't even get 1 or 2 # and have to make another run to Pennsylvania. 10M is life-changing enough and I'd rather see a 10M or 20M or so winner every few drawings than one 300M winner or two per year. Now we can say, Oh *&#!^ it's in Florida (unless you're in Florida). Otherwise it's nice to have a new State added. The way the Jackpot would get to 400M is if there is no "fever" effect so that there are not as many people playing each time. When people get excited then it gets won very soon. The upside is FL is the last big State I think that will join either PB or MM so there are going to be less excuses later on to monkey with the matrix.

Kiss your algorithms goodbye for a few months or more. Your program will think i.e. that "59 never came out" so it won't know what to do with the extra #s, or will "Perform an Illegal Operation" when a past Bonus Ball is outside the new matrix.

Arkansas may join Powerball.

I don't have State Income Tax either and I live in Texas..  We have the Mega Million game and I think that one is big enough for all of us.  I have to go to Louisiana to get Power Ball tickets.. Never have won anything on it yet!  Have won with the Mega Millions though!  Lots of Luck Playing.

Happy New Year

This is all about sales, folks.  Believe it or not, sales remain fairly consistent until the Powerball jackpot reaches $200 million.  At that point, with each rollover, the sales increase.  That is what they're shooting for here, yet trying to keep the appeal for folks who realize they probably won't ever hit the jackpot, but still want a decent shot at some of the lower tier prizes.  Given that Florida's population is now joining the game, that's potentially millions more combinations that could have been bought under the old system, meaning jackpot winners were more likely.  They don't want that.

  Interesting they don't forget to say

"The starting jackpot will jump from $15 million to $20 million, the world's largest starting jackpot for a lotto-style game." 

  but fail to mention the game will have the lowest in the world chance to win with the odds proposed.

I LIVE IN Tampa Florida.......and COUNTING Down the days till Powerball....debating with roommate and good friend if we will pick a set of numbers and stick with them or do Quick Picks!!!

   At any rate,  I always enjoyed playing it when visiting thos states...and the fact it will be drawn here In Orlando...only learned that now....YES!!!!

      So GOOD LUCK To all ....... And HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYBODY!!!!!

I agree with both of you.  I hope someone wins (ME) on Saturday B4 the change, better odds 4 us all.  LOL

It rolled again! $90,000,000. If nobody wins Saturday(which I hope I do), we'll have a nice starting jackpot for the new matrix.

No the worst odds belong to Italy's SuperEnalotto with 1:622 million odds. Amazingly someone won it recently proving that no matter how bad the odds someone can still win.

This is true.  However, you can say that about anything. 

Example:  I'm 57 and I've never known anyone who contracted Whipple's Disease.  (I once heard of it on the show "House") An estimated 1,000 cases a year have been reported worldwide, so it isn't as rare as some conditions like primary amebic meningoencephalitis, caused when an amoeba enters your nose and infects the brain.  So let us assume that in 2009 there will be 12 to 14 PB winners.  That means you have a significantly better shot at contracting an extremely rare medical condition than winning a Powerball jackpot. 

I beg to differ.. if you include contests that aren't the Lottery, but with money prizes.. ever read the odds on the McDonald's Monopoly or the Publisher's Clearinghouse? I remember in McDonald's to win the $1M top prize (annuity only) it was something like a BILLION to one! Yet people even won that. Maybe in Italy the tickets are cheaper so they play 3 times as many? I remember when in PA you got 3 for a dollar and the odds were 100M to 1 per line but per dollar it was ~33M to 1.

I have beaten odds of 1/2-million to one using only 2 sets. A good algorithm if it exists can tip the odds.

Also remember that the odds are based on buying only ONE ticket ever. Think of it this way: the cost went up instead of the odds... you now have to pay $2 or $4(PowerPlay) for the same or better chance than in the old matrix. Compensate by using sharper algorithms with less sets of numbers but better quality. For the next few months, use your own QP system to pick fairly from the fields, until there is some new drawing data to study. Don't play too many until then.

Whatever the odds are has to be divided by how many you're ever going to play total. If you play $1 per day or $2 PP during 2009 the real odds are less than 1M to 1!

"Given that Florida's population is now joining the game, that'spotentially millions more combinations that could have been boughtunder the old system, meaning jackpot winners were more likely.  Theydon't want that."

That's not quite right. If they had brought in Florida but kept the same odds, winners would be just as likely, since winning is a function of the odds. More people playing would have resulted in winners being more frequent. The jackpots would have grown faster, and been won sooner, so they might have had a couple more winners per year. I doub they saw that as a problem, because sales wouldn't have gone down. In fact, they might even have gone up a bit (for each state: overall sales would obviously go up), becaue more frequent winners might have resulted in a perception that the game was easier to win.

The  important difference is in how big the average jackpots are. By adding a state and increasing the odds they get the best of both. Another state  means more sales, so the jackpots should grow  more quickly, and the higher odds means they should get bigger (on average).

Well, it is closer for those on the Gulf Coast to go to Florida, rather than Louisiana.  Now all we need is a MegaMillions in Mississippi or Alabama.  The odds are always high!  Just waiting for the fairy to sprinkle dust this way.  FOTFL.

Even with Florida there was no reason to really raise the odds that much other than the obvious reason they did it. It's very disproportionate to how much business Florida is likely to bring in. If I remember correctly, all the states (and territories) combined that are a part of the Powerball game still don't come close to the total population that of the handful of states that make up Mega Millions.

Do you remember when that group from Australia won the very first Power Ball game??  That upset all of us in Virginia at the time.  I was just reminising a little.  Now they want to make it harder!!!!  Oh well thank heaven for the Texas Two Step!!!

Joey