Do the Platinum Statistics allow you to sort by Ball Set & count Practice Draws?Prev Topic Next Topic

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TotallyDavis

North Charleston, SC
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Jan 8, 2009, 4:15 pm

I am considering a Platinum membership here, but I am hesitant because I'm not sure about the statistics that you can get.

To truly make the best number picks you need to be able to distinguish between draws made with different ball sets (for lotteries where that information is available) and the more data, the better. Some lotteries (like Powerball) do practice draws with the machines that are published.

With the Platinum statistics do you have the option of factoring in the practice draws when seeing ball frequency? These draws are every bit statistically valid, they just aren't considered the official draw because the equipment is just being tested.

Also, can you sort results by the known ball set that was used at that time? A list of frequently hit balls is kind of nice, but to be able to distinguish the most frequently hit balls with a certain ball set would allow you to play a ticket with the hottest balls for that set, just in case that set is used that evening. If a lottery game uses five different sets of balls, then you might play five tickets regularly with the hottest numbers for each set.

Help on this matter is appreciated. Thanks to any members that know and can provide it.
Stew12

CT
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Jan 8, 2009, 4:33 pm

I don't think many places record their test draws in the same database as the official draws, which would make it difficult for sites like this to automatically have access to the information. As far as I know, Powerball only records their test draws and ball set/machine combos in a .doc file. Importing data into a site like this from .doc files all over the world containing test draws would be impossible. ..Maybe Todd has some different insight though.
Stew12

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Jan 8, 2009, 4:35 pm

Another problem with attempting to use this information in your number selection is that the machines and ball sets are not announced before the draw. You would have to have different predictions for each different set of balls and machines (5 machines and 4 balls would be 20 different prediction sets) and take a guess on which to play (5% chance of getting it right). I forget how many they said they were using for Powerball now. Coming up with 1 set of accurate predictions is tough enough, nevermind having to create 20 of them and guessing which one to use before the draw.
TotallyDavis

North Charleston, SC
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Jan 8, 2009, 4:39 pm

Yeah, but can you call your predictions truly accurate if you don't take this information into account?

Playing the five 'hottest' balls in a lottery (let's say Powerball) will not help you much because those hot balls might belong to different sets, and you might be better off replacing certain numbers with others depending on the set.

If you can't afford to play a set of numbers for each set of balls and all the machines they could be played in, perhaps you could just run machines or balls. Or maybe you could use this information to make a small pool. Four people each pitching in $5 a draw could run all the best numbers.
Stew12

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Jan 8, 2009, 4:44 pm

Yeah, but can you call your predictions truly accurate if you don't take this information into account?

Maybe not, but with all of the other variables involved its [theoretically] impossible to make repeatable, accurate predictions for a game that is [theoretically] 100% random.

Don't get me wrong though, I love to try and beat the system with statistics :)

Playing the five 'hottest' balls in a lottery (let's say Powerball) will not help you much because those hot balls might belong to different sets, and you might be better off replacing certain numbers with others depending on the set.

Right, but balls are not necessarily 'hot' because they hit 'every' draw, even if you had the 5 hottest balls picked for the correct machine and ball set, they could still only hit once every 7-8 draws and still be top of the 'hot' charts. These balls could also never show together and still be the top 5 'hot'.
TotallyDavis

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Jan 8, 2009, 4:54 pm

You're right, a true 'perfect' system would find the hottest numbers, and then the numbers that were likely to appear with those numbers, and then create a three dimensional field with the strongest possible combinations suggested.

Ok, and sure, maybe any improvement in your odds from anaylyzing the lottery is just your imagination, but maybe not.

Let's say that by analyzing all that and coming up with what you think are good numbers you improve your chances by just 2% above everyone else.

Well, I'd say that 2% of the top prize is significant. I'd say that 2% improvment from your hour or two of work is in effect, worth millions of dollars.
Stew12

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Jan 8, 2009, 5:11 pm

Well, I'd say that 2% of the top prize is significant. I'd say that 2% improvment from your hour or two of work is in effect, worth millions of dollars.

..which is why we're all here
Todd

50

Chief Bottle Washer

New Jersey
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Jan 8, 2009, 5:18 pm

Quote: Originally posted by TotallyDavis on Jan 8, 2009
I am considering a Platinum membership here, but I am hesitant because I'm not sure about the statistics that you can get.

To truly make the best number picks you need to be able to distinguish between draws made with different ball sets (for lotteries where that information is available) and the more data, the better. Some lotteries (like Powerball) do practice draws with the machines that are published.

With the Platinum statistics do you have the option of factoring in the practice draws when seeing ball frequency? These draws are every bit statistically valid, they just aren't considered the official draw because the equipment is just being tested.

Also, can you sort results by the known ball set that was used at that time? A list of frequently hit balls is kind of nice, but to be able to distinguish the most frequently hit balls with a certain ball set would allow you to play a ticket with the hottest balls for that set, just in case that set is used that evening. If a lottery game uses five different sets of balls, then you might play five tickets regularly with the hottest numbers for each set.

Help on this matter is appreciated. Thanks to any members that know and can provide it.

No, none of those things are available. Most of the time, the raw data is not even available, in which case I'd recommend contacting your state lottery and requesting that they make all such information publicly available on their web site, in an electronically-readable format.

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four4me

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Jan 8, 2009, 5:37 pm

I'm glad Stew answered most of these questions because for all it's worth how can Todd input numbers from pre tests that he has no knowledge of because that information isn't available until after the draw. And would for all intensive purpose be useless for the next draw because they will do more pre tests before that draw.

How could Todd know before the draw which machines are going to be used along with ball sets. Can we differentiate using statistical analysis which balls sets were in play for every drawing. Possibly but suppose they swap out balls from one set to another during the year.

Statistical analysis is determined from the balls that were actually drawn and is the resource available for the next draw.

In order for anyone to use pre draws in their analysis would be for someone connected to the lottery to divulge that information before the draw in which case you would have very short time to crunch the numbers and do your analysis. Probably less than a hour maybe even shorter time. And i doubt seriously if anyone can get lottery personal to divulge that information without serious consequences.

Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
Todd

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Chief Bottle Washer

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Jan 8, 2009, 6:44 pm

Quote: Originally posted by four4me on Jan 8, 2009
I'm glad Stew answered most of these questions because for all it's worth how can Todd input numbers from pre tests that he has no knowledge of because that information isn't available until after the draw. And would for all intensive purpose be useless for the next draw because they will do more pre tests before that draw.

How could Todd know before the draw which machines are going to be used along with ball sets. Can we differentiate using statistical analysis which balls sets were in play for every drawing. Possibly but suppose they swap out balls from one set to another during the year.

Statistical analysis is determined from the balls that were actually drawn and is the resource available for the next draw.

In order for anyone to use pre draws in their analysis would be for someone connected to the lottery to divulge that information before the draw in which case you would have very short time to crunch the numbers and do your analysis. Probably less than a hour maybe even shorter time. And i doubt seriously if anyone can get lottery personal to divulge that information without serious consequences.

That's true.

I suppose the one thing pre-draw data could be used for would be for an analysis of past drawings. It would certainly provide a much larger set of data from which to look for any possible pattern, trends, and/or tendencies.

From a logistical standpoint, you're right, it would be difficult to get something like that on a regular basis, but more than that, it would be spotty, because very few states bother to report that level of detail.

We definitely would not be able to know the draw machine before the drawing, because most states choose the machine at random just before the drawing takes place. It's possible that some may rotate them in order, but I have only heard about choosing them randomly so far.

Check the State Lottery Report Card
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four4me

MD
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Jan 8, 2009, 11:13 pm

Thanks Todd for your input.

Also i forgot to mention the after draws the lottery has pre draws the actual drawing and the after drawings. All which are audited and filmed.

I can see why some people think this information is valuable. However i doubt seriously if that information will get anyone closer to a win than there gonna get using the actual drawing data.

A random lottery drawing is just that random but for some reason people think that the lottery is doing things to prevent people from winning. While there are many threads on lottery post about this you cant convince someone who is bent on believing this pre drawing data is needed for their workouts.

People should concentrate on using the actual drawing data, devise some system or method of crunching the numbers they are comfortable with, have realistic goals of winning boxed or straights and forget about something that isn't going to be available in time for someone to use the data.

Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
Todd

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Chief Bottle Washer

New Jersey
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Jan 8, 2009, 11:22 pm

I definitely understand your feelings on that, but it's for precisely that reason that I feel the lotteries should all release that information, and make it easy to access.

By keeping that information hidden, they open themselves to suspicion. People ask themselves, "Why are they keeping that data private if there's nothing to hide?"

While some people may feel that the lottery is totally random, others feel just as strongly that it is not. I may personally feel one way or the other, but I don't begrudge the other side their feelings, and in fact I think their feelings and opinions should receive equal weight as mine, regardless of how strongly I feel.

By maintaining complete transparency, the lottery can show that it runs a high-class operation, and is beyond reproach. Opening the kimono (so to speak) has no downside that I can think of — only the benefit of an informed and more trusting player base.

Check the State Lottery Report Card
What grade did your lottery earn?

Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
Help eliminate computerized drawings!
Stew12

CT
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May 21, 2008
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Jan 9, 2009, 10:07 am

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Jan 8, 2009
I definitely understand your feelings on that, but it's for precisely that reason that I feel the lotteries should all release that information, and make it easy to access.

By keeping that information hidden, they open themselves to suspicion. People ask themselves, "Why are they keeping that data private if there's nothing to hide?"

While some people may feel that the lottery is totally random, others feel just as strongly that it is not. I may personally feel one way or the other, but I don't begrudge the other side their feelings, and in fact I think their feelings and opinions should receive equal weight as mine, regardless of how strongly I feel.

By maintaining complete transparency, the lottery can show that it runs a high-class operation, and is beyond reproach. Opening the kimono (so to speak) has no downside that I can think of — only the benefit of an informed and more trusting player base.

The only downside might be the plethora of complaints people will most likely file when their tickets are drawn in the pre-test draws, and not in the official draw. If that data is widely available, I am willing to bet there will be some people who might make a stink. 90% of the population probably has no idea there are draws before and after the official draw.
BobP

Dump Water Florida
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Jan 9, 2009, 6:04 pm

Order can often be found within chaos. Look at rapids in a stream. The water is in total chaos and yet perfect whirlpools are repeatedly formed.

IMHO, the lottery would be somewhat more predictable with one machine and one ballset loaded in the same order each time.

It would be interesting to have all the information for one game, say PowerBall because it's coming ever closer to being a national game the most subscribers have access to.

They would literally have to setup an independent data base for each possible ballset and machine combination.

To be affordable, they would have to select one ballset and machine combo and play the predictions for that combo and wait for it to come into play like a trapper who sets a trap and waits for the prey to fall into it.

Of course this presupposes there is prediction software that would put all the winning numbers into a reduced field given this level of data.

BobP

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Do the Platinum Statistics allow you to sort by Ball Set & count Practice Draws?Prev TopicNext Topic

Do the Platinum Statistics allow you to sort by Ball Set & count Practice Draws?Prev Topic Next Topic