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jmr99vet

MD
United States
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July 19, 2008
3 Posts
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Jul 19, 2009, 7:12 pm

Have been a premium member for a year and just "re upped". I have learned a lot in the past year from this site. Today I could not come up with some 3 digit numbers but wanted some action. I went to the store and told the clerk to give me 2 "quick picks" dollar straight. I looked at the 2 tickets and both had 334. I thought the clerk made a mistake. HOWEVER in Maryland the computer generated "quickpicks" have a QP on the tickets. My quesiton is what are the odds of having the computer pick the SAME number 2 times in a row? I took statistics 101 MANY years ago. I do know that it will be a big number. THANKS

PS this is my first post in a little over a year. STAY IN THE BACKGROUND AND LEARN
Todd

50

Chief Bottle Washer

New Jersey
United States
Member #1
May 31, 2000
27,929 Posts
Online

Jul 19, 2009, 7:37 pm

1 in 1000.

The first QP was "some number". Then, there is a 1-in-1000 chance that the second QP will be identical to the first.

Check the State Lottery Report Card
What grade did your lottery earn?

Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
Help eliminate computerized drawings!
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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Jul 19, 2009, 8:02 pm

Todd,

I've seen the odds of winning a lottery twice in a row and that is always the odds of winning it once squared (1:1000 x 1:1000 or 1:1000000). Why wouldn't it be same for a random number generated twice in a row?

RJOh

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
Todd

50

Chief Bottle Washer

New Jersey
United States
Member #1
May 31, 2000
27,929 Posts
Online

Jul 19, 2009, 9:50 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Jul 19, 2009
Todd,

I've seen the odds of winning a lottery twice in a row and that is always the odds of winning it once squared (1:1000 x 1:1000 or 1:1000000). Why wouldn't it be same for a random number generated twice in a row?

RJOh

No, not true in this case.

If you were calcuting the odds of getting one specific number of your choosing twice then sure, you're right. But that's not the case here.

The first number can be anything, so there are no odds associated with it. The only odds are of the second number matching the first. Hence 1-in-1000.

Check the State Lottery Report Card
What grade did your lottery earn?

Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
Help eliminate computerized drawings!
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline

Jul 19, 2009, 11:11 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Jul 19, 2009
No, not true in this case.

If you were calcuting the odds of getting one specific number of your choosing twice then sure, you're right. But that's not the case here.

The first number can be anything, so there are no odds associated with it. The only odds are of the second number matching the first. Hence 1-in-1000.

Thanks for your explanation. While off line I wrote a loop in GWBasic that proves you were right.

10 CLS:RANDOMIZE TIMER
20 N2=N:T=T+1:N=INT(RND*1000)+1
30 LOCATE 5,10:PRINT T;"=";N;" ";N2;" ";T2;" "
40 IF N=N2 THEN T2=T2+1
50 GOTO 20

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
pianist

houston,texas
United States
Member #22,947
October 5, 2005
224 Posts
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Jul 20, 2009, 12:10 am

DO any one remember the formula for pick- four with the use of a calculator? I think You have to multiply3.88= ?????
four4me

MD
United States
Member #1,701
June 18, 2003
10,731 Posts
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Jul 20, 2009, 12:28 am

Quote: Originally posted by jmr99vet on Jul 19, 2009
Have been a premium member for a year and just "re upped". I have learned a lot in the past year from this site. Today I could not come up with some 3 digit numbers but wanted some action. I went to the store and told the clerk to give me 2 "quick picks" dollar straight. I looked at the 2 tickets and both had 334. I thought the clerk made a mistake. HOWEVER in Maryland the computer generated "quickpicks" have a QP on the tickets. My quesiton is what are the odds of having the computer pick the SAME number 2 times in a row? I took statistics 101 MANY years ago. I do know that it will be a big number. THANKS

PS this is my first post in a little over a year. STAY IN THE BACKGROUND AND LEARN

That number just came out in Maryland on 7/16/2009 ---- 334

I don't like quick picks cause i rarely hear of anyone winning with them. I might have kept one of the tickets with 334 and asked for a different ticket as a replacement for the other 334 ticket. They can cancel pick 3 and 4 tickets.

Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
KY Floyd

NY
United States
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October 16, 2005
4,771 Posts
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Jul 20, 2009, 2:32 am

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Jul 19, 2009
Todd,

I've seen the odds of winning a lottery twice in a row and that is always the odds of winning it once squared (1:1000 x 1:1000 or 1:1000000). Why wouldn't it be same for a random number generated twice in a row?

RJOh

Nobody ever does a story about somebody winning twice until it actually happens, so it is the same. It's just that the people who tell you the odds are 1 in 1,000,000 are wrong, or they're giving the odds for winning twice in a row when you haven't already won once. I generally figure the latter is the wrong answer, but I suppose it depends on the question they're trying to answer. If I were to win twice in a row and you ask about the odds of that happening the answer really depends on whether you're asking about my odds or yours. I had obviously already won once, so there was a 1 in 1000 chance it would happen again. Assuming you hadn't already won, the chance it would happen to you would be 1 in 1,000,000.

FWIW, whenever I've seen those answers offered in a news story there is never any mention that they're based on the assumption that you're only playing one ticket at a time, and you're only playing two consecutive games and then never playing again. Of course I never know if the person answering the question did a poor job or if it was the person reporting the answer that did a poor job.
jmr99vet

MD
United States
Member #63,101
July 19, 2008
3 Posts
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Jul 20, 2009, 8:11 am

THANKS everyone for the input. Just thought it was odd 2 qp's with the same number. As someone pointed out 334 hit a couple of days ago, and did not hit yesterday. BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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Jul 20, 2009, 10:57 am

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Jul 20, 2009
Nobody ever does a story about somebody winning twice until it actually happens, so it is the same. It's just that the people who tell you the odds are 1 in 1,000,000 are wrong, or they're giving the odds for winning twice in a row when you haven't already won once. I generally figure the latter is the wrong answer, but I suppose it depends on the question they're trying to answer. If I were to win twice in a row and you ask about the odds of that happening the answer really depends on whether you're asking about my odds or yours. I had obviously already won once, so there was a 1 in 1000 chance it would happen again. Assuming you hadn't already won, the chance it would happen to you would be 1 in 1,000,000.

FWIW, whenever I've seen those answers offered in a news story there is never any mention that they're based on the assumption that you're only playing one ticket at a time, and you're only playing two consecutive games and then never playing again. Of course I never know if the person answering the question did a poor job or if it was the person reporting the answer that did a poor job.

After experimenting with that loop, I added a N3 which shows the frequency of someone likely winning twice along with the frequency of a number coming up twice.

I was reading an article about this and the writer points out that folks might confuse the odds of them winning twice with the odds of someone winning twice. He points out that new stories about someone winning a lottery twice usually quote the odds of it happening to a particular individual which might lead some to think it happens less than it actually does.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
Raven62

25

New Jersey
United States
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June 28, 2005
180,983 Posts
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Jul 20, 2009, 12:20 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on Jul 19, 2009
No, not true in this case.

If you were calcuting the odds of getting one specific number of your choosing twice then sure, you're right. But that's not the case here.

The first number can be anything, so there are no odds associated with it. The only odds are of the second number matching the first. Hence 1-in-1000.

Even after reading your eloquent explicative: It still sounds like a Million-To-One Shot! LOL!

A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

Catch-22: A dilemma or difficult circumstance from which there is no escape because of mutually conflicting or dependent conditions.

Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges: When the republic is at its most corrupt the laws are most numerous.

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WIN D

Stone Mountain*Georgia
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November 2, 2002
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Jul 20, 2009, 12:55 pm

Clean, clear explanation KY Floyd. Thanks

How about dropping in on the Math forum more often ? We need a lifeguard over there. LOL

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.

Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much.

Odds never change .....but probability does.

Win d
Todd

50

Chief Bottle Washer

New Jersey
United States
Member #1
May 31, 2000
27,929 Posts
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Jul 20, 2009, 1:19 pm
Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Jul 20, 2009
Nobody ever does a story about somebody winning twice until it actually happens, so it is the same. It's just that the people who tell you the odds are 1 in 1,000,000 are wrong, or they're giving the odds for winning twice in a row when you haven't already won once. I generally figure the latter is the wrong answer, but I suppose it depends on the question they're trying to answer. If I were to win twice in a row and you ask about the odds of that happening the answer really depends on whether you're asking about my odds or yours. I had obviously already won once, so there was a 1 in 1000 chance it would happen again. Assuming you hadn't already won, the chance it would happen to you would be 1 in 1,000,000.

FWIW, whenever I've seen those answers offered in a news story there is never any mention that they're based on the assumption that you're only playing one ticket at a time, and you're only playing two consecutive games and then never playing again. Of course I never know if the person answering the question did a poor job or if it was the person reporting the answer that did a poor job.
Actually, hitting a straight twice in a row IS 1 in 1,000,000.

This thread was about the odds of having two successive quick picks be the same number. The reason it is 1 in 1,000 is that no matter what the first number is, there are no odds associated with it.

HOWEVER, in the case of WINNING twice in a row, there ARE odds associated with the first win. Those odds are 1 in 1,000. Winning on the second day is also 1 in 1,000. The odds of hitting both drawings in a row is therefore 1 in 1,000,000.

So, to summarize:
- The odds of asking for two Pick 3 quick picks and having them be the same number: 1 in 1,000
- The odds of hitting (winning) Pick 3 straight two days in a row, assuming that only one ticket is played each drawing: 1 in 1,000,000
Check the State Lottery Report Card
What grade did your lottery earn?

Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
Help eliminate computerized drawings!
KY Floyd

NY
United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
4,771 Posts
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Jul 21, 2009, 3:23 am

Suppose you won tonight? I'm pretty sure that you wouldn't think your odds of winning again tomorrow night are 1 in 1 million, so (as I clearly noted) it depends on whether we're talking about somebody who hasn't won or somebody who has already won. If you've already won and you buy a single ticket for the next drawing the chances that you will become one of the people who won twice in a row are 1 in 1000. You may think the odds of that first win are 1 in 1000, but that's just as incorrect as thinking that the odds for the first occurrence of a repeated number are 1 in 1000. Your chance of winning may be 1 in 1000, but for any given game there are far more than 1000 tickets sold and having at least one winner is a (virtual) certainty. That means that for any given drawing there are a number of people with a 1 in 1000 chance of winning twice in a row. Just as the first QP has to have some number on it, there will almost certainly be several someones who win in any future drawing. If they lose in t efollowing drawing it will be completely ignored by news reporters. If one of them wins it won't be very surprising if you consider the odds, but many people will think it's very unlikely and therefore newsworthy.

As a real world example, there were 188 straight winners for NY's 7/19 evening drawing. If each of those winners plays a single number in the next drawing there is an 18.8% chance that one of them will win again. If those numbers are fairly typical I can safely say that the odds of somebody winning tomorow's evening drawing and the next day's mid-day drawing are in the neighborhood of 1 in 5.
KY Floyd

NY
United States
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October 16, 2005
4,771 Posts
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Jul 21, 2009, 3:26 am

Quote: Originally posted by WIN D on Jul 20, 2009
Clean, clear explanation KY Floyd. Thanks

How about dropping in on the Math forum more often ? We need a lifeguard over there. LOL

Actually, I do drop in here fairly often. I just don't comment all that often, since most of the stuff I find is only tangentially about math. I don't do any complicated math in Excel, so at least 50% of what I see is irrelevant right off the bat.

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