A rough idea of the probability of a rollover.Prev TopicNext Topic

• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  963 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 27, 2009, 8:45 am

  ▲▼

  On August 31, 2007, the MM jackpot was $330M annuity.   Sales for that drawing were $137,151,667.

  The probability of various numbers of winners for that drawing - which rose from a 250M jackpot and should thus be similar to this drawing was: 

   

  k, number of winners	p(m,k)
  0	45.82%
  1	35.76%
  2	13.96%
  3	3.63%
  4	0.71%
  5	0.11%
  6	0.01%

  
  
  

  Zero winners is the probability of a rollover of course, and it is the most probable single out come, although it is less than 50%.
• johnph77

  

  CA
  United States
  Member #2,987
  December 10, 2003
  832 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 27, 2009, 8:56 am

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  In response to Prob988

  Quote: Originally posted by Prob988 on Aug 27, 2009

  On August 31, 2007, the MM jackpot was $330M annuity.   Sales for that drawing were $137,151,667.

  The probability of various numbers of winners for that drawing - which rose from a 250M jackpot and should thus be similar to this drawing was: 

   

  k, number of winners	p(m,k)
  0	45.82%
  1	35.76%
  2	13.96%
  3	3.63%
  4	0.71%
  5	0.11%
  6	0.01%

  
  
  

  Zero winners is the probability of a rollover of course, and it is the most probable single out come, although it is less than 50%.

  The odds of a rollover would decrease as the number of tickets sold rises.

  gl

  j

  Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

  Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

   =^.^=
• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  963 Posts
  Offline
  Aug 27, 2009, 10:28 am

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  In response to johnph77

  Quote: Originally posted by johnph77 on Aug 27, 2009

  The odds of a rollover would decrease as the number of tickets sold rises.

  gl

  j

  This is true, but what happened the last time at this prize level is as good an estimate of sales as any.