Why not all the Probability, Statistics, Calculus Theories applied all in 1 to lotteryPrev Topic Next Topic

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pumpi76

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Mar 10, 2011, 9:19 am

i´ve heard before that there is a particular statistic or probability theory that can be applied to the lottery by some mathematician..But guess what? is only 1, they always use 1...Probability has lots of theories, statistics too, calculus too...why not use all the probability theories, calculus theories and statistic theories and applied them to the lottery like with excel or another program and see what happens...nobody has thought of this...

also there are lots of Probability, Statistics, Calculus Theories not in textbooks because if they did the textbook will look like a giant encyclopedia not just that, there are lots of Probability, Statistics, Calculus Theories not in textbooks because they didnt pass the review or approval or certification or creditation or became proof/truth or approval by the Certification Board of Probability, Statistics, Calculus or whatever they call them...the same they do in science...you could use those too....

The Forex trades: 1.6 Trillion dollars EVERY day, that´s more than the GDP of the Carribbean Central America, COMBINED. Enough to feed every crook out there for centuries...To all Geniuses & Powers Countries of the World the Planet needs breakthroughs in all Medicine, Veterinary, Biology related fields, Psychology, Population Psychology/Sociology..They need to genetically ingeneer new plants species/types to give more variety of plants and thus have more resources for combating diseases¨
pumpi76

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Mar 10, 2011, 9:27 am

thought of this after i read greenfox post/thread it let me think of this...

The Forex trades: 1.6 Trillion dollars EVERY day, that´s more than the GDP of the Carribbean Central America, COMBINED. Enough to feed every crook out there for centuries...To all Geniuses & Powers Countries of the World the Planet needs breakthroughs in all Medicine, Veterinary, Biology related fields, Psychology, Population Psychology/Sociology..They need to genetically ingeneer new plants species/types to give more variety of plants and thus have more resources for combating diseases¨
Greenfox

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Mar 10, 2011, 2:26 pm

Evening pumpi,

Just read your article here and wanted to comment real quick. This is possibly what i have been working on for years now. The part that i put on here about the square of a number is only a part of what i have been working on. Personally i know that it can be figured out and won. Thats all lottery games. They all work the same because they are all numbers. What i have been using has mathematics, probability, what has happened, pretty much everything short of quantum physics. Even tried some geometry on graphs, which failed miserably BTW. Alot of it, mostly the powerball stuff, i'm not really letting out just yet. I will give bits and pieces, but i gotta figure it out and win first. I always planned on giving most of my winnings away anyhow, then just give out numbers for friends to play, or people i knew that where hurting for money. What i have been trying to do is figure why a 14 goes to a 22.

I look at it like learning how to build a motor, building a house, anything that forms something has an equation, a formula, has a mathematical way to it's formation. I thought it was odd that i looked at it this way at first. As i'm sure most will.

A human body has chromosomes, but a certain number of chromosomes makes a person, dog, bird, fish what it is. Now there's different factors in a persons life that makes them become what they become. One thing might make someone do something, that if they hadn't done there might have been a different outcome. To me the lottery is no different. It's gonna take all the things one can learn to figure it out. If you wanna learn how something works you gotta tear off a piece and see what it does, move on to another piece and see what it does. Once someone figures out why an 8 goes to a 23, then they have got it whooped. You are right though, it's gonna take all of it to figure it out. It can be done though. E=MC was about an apple falling. Come off of George Washingtons tree, i think didn't it? lol

You can't steal second and keep your foot on FIRST!!!

“Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths.
When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength”.

-Arnold (Ahnald) Schwarzenegger-
pumpi76

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Mar 10, 2011, 8:52 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Greenfox on Mar 10, 2011
Evening pumpi,

Just read your article here and wanted to comment real quick. This is possibly what i have been working on for years now. The part that i put on here about the square of a number is only a part of what i have been working on. Personally i know that it can be figured out and won. Thats all lottery games. They all work the same because they are all numbers. What i have been using has mathematics, probability, what has happened, pretty much everything short of quantum physics. Even tried some geometry on graphs, which failed miserably BTW. Alot of it, mostly the powerball stuff, i'm not really letting out just yet. I will give bits and pieces, but i gotta figure it out and win first. I always planned on giving most of my winnings away anyhow, then just give out numbers for friends to play, or people i knew that where hurting for money. What i have been trying to do is figure why a 14 goes to a 22.

I look at it like learning how to build a motor, building a house, anything that forms something has an equation, a formula, has a mathematical way to it's formation. I thought it was odd that i looked at it this way at first. As i'm sure most will.

A human body has chromosomes, but a certain number of chromosomes makes a person, dog, bird, fish what it is. Now there's different factors in a persons life that makes them become what they become. One thing might make someone do something, that if they hadn't done there might have been a different outcome. To me the lottery is no different. It's gonna take all the things one can learn to figure it out. If you wanna learn how something works you gotta tear off a piece and see what it does, move on to another piece and see what it does. Once someone figures out why an 8 goes to a 23, then they have got it whooped. You are right though, it's gonna take all of it to figure it out. It can be done though. E=MC was about an apple falling. Come off of George Washingtons tree, i think didn't it? lol

about the human Chromosome, good analogy it made me think...to an alien looking at humans he/she/it will think we act differently but if he saw us internally like the brain and dna he will know what governs those random actions that we make every day...

same is with the lottery....

The Forex trades: 1.6 Trillion dollars EVERY day, that´s more than the GDP of the Carribbean Central America, COMBINED. Enough to feed every crook out there for centuries...To all Geniuses & Powers Countries of the World the Planet needs breakthroughs in all Medicine, Veterinary, Biology related fields, Psychology, Population Psychology/Sociology..They need to genetically ingeneer new plants species/types to give more variety of plants and thus have more resources for combating diseases¨
JosephusMinimus

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Mar 11, 2011, 8:49 am

Hi Pumpi and Greenfox. Pumpi I think you have overlooked some of the threads on the Math, Lottery Systems, Pick 5, Jackpot and Pick 3 forums. Posters are trying everything you mentioned and a lot you didn't.

Greenfox gave a good summary of some of the problems we all bump into. But he didn't mention the problem of testing. If we were trying to predict a draw that happened in 1995 or 2007 we would all be rich. Back testing isn't a good indicator of what is worth following and what isn't. For example, the sort below is the result of an attempt to backtest a complex series of calculations of the nature you mentioned against the draw results of two lotteries. Mega Millions and Illinois.

IL 9/20/1986 3-11-13-17-40-42
IL 9/20/1995 13-15-17-19-40-49
IL 9/20/1997 14-22-31-36-43-44
IL 9/20/2000 12-14-15-29-45-50
MM 9/25/2001 7-13-29-32-48-3
IL 9/20/2003 6-20-24-38-43-51
MM 9/26/2003 5-29-32-45-52-29
IL 9/20/2006 12-16-24-25-41-49
MM 9/26/2006 3-6-38-42-45-30
IL 9/20/2008 3-20-22-26-30-47
IL 9/20/2010 3-14-28-35-43-47

#----Frequency----%

11-----1-----1.52
12-----2-----3.03
13-----3-----4.55
14-----3-----4.55
15-----2-----3.03
16-----1-----1.52
17-----2-----3.03
19-----1-----1.52
20-----2-----3.03
22-----2-----3.03
24-----2-----3.03
25-----1-----1.52
26-----1-----1.52
28-----1-----1.52
29-----4-----6.06
3-----5-----7.58
30-----2-----3.03
31-----1-----1.52
32-----2-----3.03
35-----1-----1.52
36-----1-----1.52
38-----2-----3.03
40-----2-----3.03
41-----1-----1.52
42-----2-----3.03
43-----3-----4.55
44-----1-----1.52
45-----3-----4.55
47-----2-----3.03
48-----1-----1.52
49-----2-----3.03
5-----1-----1.52
50-----1-----1.52
51-----1-----1.52
52-----1-----1.52
6-----2-----3.03
7-----1-----1.52

Different numbers counted: 37

Total Draws: 12

A person who hasn't done a few thousand similar backtests might run out and buy a ticket.
RJOh

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Mar 11, 2011, 3:51 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JosephusMinimus on Mar 11, 2011
Hi Pumpi and Greenfox. Pumpi I think you have overlooked some of the threads on the Math, Lottery Systems, Pick 5, Jackpot and Pick 3 forums. Posters are trying everything you mentioned and a lot you didn't.

Greenfox gave a good summary of some of the problems we all bump into. But he didn't mention the problem of testing. If we were trying to predict a draw that happened in 1995 or 2007 we would all be rich. Back testing isn't a good indicator of what is worth following and what isn't. For example, the sort below is the result of an attempt to backtest a complex series of calculations of the nature you mentioned against the draw results of two lotteries. Mega Millions and Illinois.

IL 9/20/1986 3-11-13-17-40-42
IL 9/20/1995 13-15-17-19-40-49
IL 9/20/1997 14-22-31-36-43-44
IL 9/20/2000 12-14-15-29-45-50
MM 9/25/2001 7-13-29-32-48-3
IL 9/20/2003 6-20-24-38-43-51
MM 9/26/2003 5-29-32-45-52-29
IL 9/20/2006 12-16-24-25-41-49
MM 9/26/2006 3-6-38-42-45-30
IL 9/20/2008 3-20-22-26-30-47
IL 9/20/2010 3-14-28-35-43-47

#----Frequency----%

11-----1-----1.52
12-----2-----3.03
13-----3-----4.55
14-----3-----4.55
15-----2-----3.03
16-----1-----1.52
17-----2-----3.03
19-----1-----1.52
20-----2-----3.03
22-----2-----3.03
24-----2-----3.03
25-----1-----1.52
26-----1-----1.52
28-----1-----1.52
29-----4-----6.06
3-----5-----7.58
30-----2-----3.03
31-----1-----1.52
32-----2-----3.03
35-----1-----1.52
36-----1-----1.52
38-----2-----3.03
40-----2-----3.03
41-----1-----1.52
42-----2-----3.03
43-----3-----4.55
44-----1-----1.52
45-----3-----4.55
47-----2-----3.03
48-----1-----1.52
49-----2-----3.03
5-----1-----1.52
50-----1-----1.52
51-----1-----1.52
52-----1-----1.52
6-----2-----3.03
7-----1-----1.52

Different numbers counted: 37

Total Draws: 12

A person who hasn't done a few thousand similar backtests might run out and buy a ticket.

The present MegaMillions matrix has only existed since 06/24/2005 so any frequency percent before then wouldn't apply to the latest drawings.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
JosephusMinimus

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Mar 11, 2011, 5:40 pm

That would be important if the test had been about statistical porobabilities.
dr san

bgonÃ§alves
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June 9, 2010
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Mar 12, 2011, 9:28 am

pumpi=

It's in your heart that you will find the energy needed to transform its
life ". ie the problem is inside you'll find the solution
transporting to the lottery, within the results is that the solution! is the study of probability, estocatiscas, positions, endings, digits, but all tend to remember the following only if you can even provide up to 70%
example of the bet in a game of 49 / 6 can be predicted with confidence until 4 to 5 numbers, the rest will be random, since the repetition of an event is the secret of probabilities,
could see three frequencies by the vertical positions of each
(49 / 6) has six positions) or wheel to 4x4 = 49? to hit the block, the other two missing numbers will be random or fixed!
as one could then use past performance to predict
to 70% or four of the six possible numbers? thanks
garyo1954

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May 2, 2004
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Mar 12, 2011, 12:26 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JosephusMinimus on Mar 11, 2011
Hi Pumpi and Greenfox. Pumpi I think you have overlooked some of the threads on the Math, Lottery Systems, Pick 5, Jackpot and Pick 3 forums. Posters are trying everything you mentioned and a lot you didn't.

Greenfox gave a good summary of some of the problems we all bump into. But he didn't mention the problem of testing. If we were trying to predict a draw that happened in 1995 or 2007 we would all be rich. Back testing isn't a good indicator of what is worth following and what isn't. For example, the sort below is the result of an attempt to backtest a complex series of calculations of the nature you mentioned against the draw results of two lotteries. Mega Millions and Illinois.

IL 9/20/1986 3-11-13-17-40-42
IL 9/20/1995 13-15-17-19-40-49
IL 9/20/1997 14-22-31-36-43-44
IL 9/20/2000 12-14-15-29-45-50
MM 9/25/2001 7-13-29-32-48-3
IL 9/20/2003 6-20-24-38-43-51
MM 9/26/2003 5-29-32-45-52-29
IL 9/20/2006 12-16-24-25-41-49
MM 9/26/2006 3-6-38-42-45-30
IL 9/20/2008 3-20-22-26-30-47
IL 9/20/2010 3-14-28-35-43-47

#----Frequency----%

11-----1-----1.52
12-----2-----3.03
13-----3-----4.55
14-----3-----4.55
15-----2-----3.03
16-----1-----1.52
17-----2-----3.03
19-----1-----1.52
20-----2-----3.03
22-----2-----3.03
24-----2-----3.03
25-----1-----1.52
26-----1-----1.52
28-----1-----1.52
29-----4-----6.06
3-----5-----7.58
30-----2-----3.03
31-----1-----1.52
32-----2-----3.03
35-----1-----1.52
36-----1-----1.52
38-----2-----3.03
40-----2-----3.03
41-----1-----1.52
42-----2-----3.03
43-----3-----4.55
44-----1-----1.52
45-----3-----4.55
47-----2-----3.03
48-----1-----1.52
49-----2-----3.03
5-----1-----1.52
50-----1-----1.52
51-----1-----1.52
52-----1-----1.52
6-----2-----3.03
7-----1-----1.52

Different numbers counted: 37

Total Draws: 12

A person who hasn't done a few thousand similar backtests might run out and buy a ticket.

I disagree with you Josephus.

Backtesting is a good indicator of predicting likelihood. (Predicting likelihood is what backtests are. In probability, LIKELIHOOD is the prediction of pasts events).

That said, the problem is 1) working with mixed data, and 2) the data you didn't generate that is a part of the whole.

Why would you even consider using data from IL 6/5? linear game with MegaMillions 5/56, plus megaball, which is a dual matrix game?

In any case, your choice, so what haven't you accounted for?

You haven't accounted for the frequency of even digits, odd digits, the high and low digit frequency, the 5/0 even, 4/1 even. 3/2 even, 2/3 odd, 1/4 odd or the 0/5 odd digit groupings frequency. You haven't produced a frequency of grouping by decade. You haven't produced a frequency for recurring numbers. Have you found the mean of your sums? Have you checked the standard deviation?

SOME OF THESE THINGS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO DO WHEN DEALING WITH TWO DIFFERENT GAMES.

Next, you take all this new information, coupled with what you have, and build a model with set maximum and minimum standards, and project it out to (you choose) 1000, 2000, 5000 draws and then check your LIKELIHOOD.

REMEMBER: A LIKELIHOOD is not a guarantee that what you predicted would occur, it only allows you to see the probability of occurence.

So now let's take this long list of possibilities we have produced and check the new draw. What? We didn't match a single number?

How did that happen? Well, 5000 combinations are a small sample considering we're dealing with 13 million to 175 million possibilities. Let's not jump off any ledges.

Is there something we've overlooked? Is it possible this draw was an abberration to the whole? Does this new draw fit the parameters we assigned to our model? Maybe using two different games with different matrices skewed our data so badly it is useless. We might need to rethink our application of what we call backtesting(LIKELIHOOD) in that case.

Let's just check our facts and figures and add new context and see how this affects what we have. Does it? Maybe not.

Maybe we have done nothing wrong. A RANDOM EVENT jumped up and got us.

G
rundown99

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Mar 12, 2011, 12:41 pm

The lottery is truly random. There is no guaranteed way to beat the lottery. It's all luck. Next topic please.

Smart lottery winners form trust to claim their winnings. They send an attorney to the lottery headquarters to claim the prize in trust, so that ONLY the name of the trust is revealed. And they tell NO ONE, especially relatives.

If you ever win a lottery and you are single, the only person you should ever marry is someone who was truly in love with you BEFORE you won the jackpot!

People can talk about strategies and gimmicks all they want, but unless your ticket actually matches at least 5 of those 6 balls, you are just another person who tried to win a game yet ultimately failed.
JosephusMinimus

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Mar 12, 2011, 1:49 pm

Hi Gary. Thanks for the comments.

I almost never buy lottery tickets. I'm not motivated by the prospect of winning a lottery. Lottery histories and lottery archives provide me with source data for something else I'm interested in. I use it all.
JosephusMinimus

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Mar 12, 2011, 2:00 pm

Hi rundown. I bought a membership before I realized how few posts the Math forum gets. The Lottery systems forum, the Pick 5 and Pick 6 forums and Jackpot forum have a few more. But until my membership runs out I hope you'll allow a few posts here even if you don't agree with them.
garyo1954

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Mar 12, 2011, 2:57 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JosephusMinimus on Mar 12, 2011
Hi Gary. Thanks for the comments.

I almost never buy lottery tickets. I'm not motivated by the prospect of winning a lottery. Lottery histories and lottery archives provide me with source data for something else I'm interested in. I use it all.

Thank you Josephus for offering an interesting observation to the math forum.

There are a some very good people here offering varying opinions and interesting aspects to 'exploratory' math. As you've already noted, dissecting numbers is not the national past time. LOL

I visit to sort out some brain teaser, or take a break from tossing a kong, or get the brain clicking in some direction. Although there are not a lot of posts, most of those that are here are worth searching.
RJOh

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Mar 12, 2011, 3:26 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rundown99 on Mar 12, 2011
The lottery is truly random. There is no guaranteed way to beat the lottery. It's all luck. Next topic please.

The lottery is truly random. There is no guaranteed way to beat the lottery. TRUE

It's all luck. THAT'S A BIG JUMP FROM There is no guaranteed way to beat the lottery

BETWEEN THE TWO SHOULD BE but you may be able to improve your odds of beating it.

At least among some players there is that belief. Some say it's as simple as buying more tickets and others say there are commonalities among a big enough group of past winning combinations that if a regular player pick combinations with those same commonalities his odds of winning are significantly increased but it probable going to require purchasing more than a couple of tickets per drawing.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
jimmy4164

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Mar 12, 2011, 4:55 pm

Quote: Originally posted by rundown99 on Mar 12, 2011
The lottery is truly random. There is no guaranteed way to beat the lottery. It's all luck. Next topic please.

Your wisdom is a tough sell here.

The hardest nuts to crack are those who basically believe in the long term random expectations of lotteries, but still believe their short term successes are the result of skill, rather than being in the right place at the right time, so to speak.

If you haven't already read it, you will like Fooled By Randomness, by Nicholas Taleb.

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