Mass. Lottery game was sure-thing for a few groups

Oct 16, 2011, 3:10 pm (20 comments)

Massachusetts Lottery

Massachusetts Lottery officials this summer said they were surprised to learn that a handful of high-stakes gamblers had taken over one of their $2 games, with just three groups of bettors accounting for most of the winning tickets statewide at certain times. The lottery disciplined two sales agents who allowed the high-rollers to run the ticket machines themselves and announced new rules to limit the dominance of sophisticated bettors.

But the Globe has found that lottery managers for years allowed and some say even encouraged the groups to manipulate the game, Cash WinFall. They provided extra ticket machines and printers to accommodate the biggest player, a retired store owner from Michigan, so he could buy more tickets faster. Gerry Selbee, whose gambling group spent millions of dollars on the game, said the regional director in Western Massachusetts personally thanked him for propping up flat lottery sales.

In addition, it appears that an extraordinary lapse by lottery officials last year allowed a group led by an MIT computer whiz to single-handedly hijack the game, winning more than $2 million — nearly the entire jackpot from a single drawing.

Until then Cash WinFall had been a game for the knowing few, who quietly played the game and reaped its generous rewards. On Aug. 16, 2010, it was a game for one.

"It was either incompetence or collusion with someone [at lottery headquarters] in Braintree," charged Selbee, who says the lottery has for years enabled, openly or tacitly, the gambling groups.

For six years, Selbee's group and a few others dominated Cash WinFall during "rolldown weeks" when prizes swell to 5 to 10 times the normal amount. Their vast winnings came at the expense of regular bettors who play the game.

Under Cash WinFall rules, when the jackpot hits $2 million and no one wins, the prize money "rolls down" into the smaller prizes, which increase dramatically. Players can win by matching 2,3,4,5 or 6 of six drawn numbers. When the jackpot rolls down, for example, picking 5 of 6 numbers can generate a prize 10 times higher than the $4,000 it would yield in a regular week.

Players are also drawn to the game in these periods because the odds of winning lower-tier prizes are relatively good — so good that statisticians say if groups bet enough money they will win more than they lose.

When the word goes out from the lottery, which normally alerts the public when a rolldown is going to occur, savvy gambling groups move in, pouring huge money into the game, generating steady profits for the lottery — and themselves.

But in August 2010, the Globe found, a group led by a 2007 MIT graduate named Yuran Lu found a way to win virtually all the prizes themselves.

Instead of waiting for the jackpot to grow enough for the lottery to predict a $2 million jackpot, Lu decided to quietly buy up enough tickets to force a rolldown himself — without the lottery or any other regular Cash WinFall players seeing it coming.

The lottery remained silent as Lu stockpiled 700,000 tickets. The lottery did not announce the rolldown to the public and no one but Lu's group poured big money into the game. Because the public and the other betting groups sat on the sidelines, the lottery may have lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in revenue.

Lu's group accounted for more than 80 percent of the sales and ultimately cashed in 860 of 983 winning tickets of $600 or more, part of a total estimated take of more than $2 million in prize money.

Lottery officials now insist they had no way of knowing until it was too late that Lu's group was manipulating the game — that its computers could not predict what ultimately happened and no one had done it before. They also said they did not detect the bulk purchases of tickets by Lu.

They said they put "protocols" in place afterward to make sure it did not occur again.

But the game's biggest player, Selbee, says the Lottery had ample advance notice that Lu was deliberately buying so many tickets that he would push the grand prize above $2 million and force the game's rolldown. By Monday, the day of the drawing, the group had bought nearly $1.4 million in tickets.

"One would have to be brain-dead not to notice that the avalanche [in sales] had begun in the days leading up to the August 16th draw," said Mohan Srivastava, a Canadian statistician who gained fame in gambling circles when he found a flaw in a Canadian instant game, allowing him to accurately pick winning tickets 90 percent of the time.

After the Globe reported in July that Selbee's GS Investment Strategies and two other groups had all but taken over the game, Lottery officials took swift action, saying they had to protect the integrity of the lottery. They announced they were phasing out Cash WinFall and suspended two lottery agents who broke the rules by letting Selbee and his wife Marge operate ticket terminals. They punished several other agents who were printing out tickets for other groups when members were not present. They also imposed restrictions on the amount of tickets lottery agents could sell in a day, effectively ending the groups' ability to dominate the game.

Now, Selbee says the lottery's crackdown was an act and that officials have known since at least 2005 that big time gamblers were moving in — he told them himself. Far from being upset, Selbee said, lottery officials encouraged him to play big, even installing extra ticket machines at Selbee's favored stores so that he could buy more tickets faster.

"They knew exactly what we were doing," he said. "They were cooperating with this club and encouraging us to play. You reported that Billy's Beverage sold nothing one day and all of a sudden sold $114,000 the next day. Why were there two lottery machines there? It was only to accommodate us. We also had two extra printers under the counter instead of one. That was arranged by the lottery to accommodate our play."

Several lottery employees, he said, observed as he and Marge operated ticket machines at the tiny western Massachusetts stores where they bet — Billy's Beverage in Sunderland and Jerry's Place in South Deerfield.

In the spring of 2006, he said the Springfield regional manager came out to meet the Michigan couple as they cashed in mountains of winning tickets. "He personally wanted to shake our hand and thanked us for coming to Massachusetts and playing Cash WinFall," recalled Selbee. "He told us that statewide sales were flat or down and we were the only reason his sales were up."

Lottery officials said then Springfield manager Dan Thibeault did not remember such a meeting.

So Selbee was surprised, to say the least, when the lottery essentially put his group out of business here, and punished the owners of Billy's Beverage and Jerry's Place by suspending their right to sell tickets for 26 days. Both Paul Mardas, the owner of Billy's Beverage, and Jerry Dagrosa, the owner of Jerry's Place, are officers of Selbee's gambling company and take part in the betting. Lottery agents are permitted to play the lottery, officials said.

Mardas said he was stunned when the lottery took strong action against him. "This is part of my bottom line and part of the store's general draw," said Mardas. "It's like if all of a sudden I couldn't sell beer."

Lottery spokeswoman Beth Bresnahan defended the lottery's response, adding that the agency "never asserted that the syndicate groups playing Cash WinFall were playing outside of the parameters of the game rules. " But, she said, the lottery will not tolerate sales agents' breaking the rules.

She said Billy's Beverage and Jerry's Place received extra equipment because their "level of sales" warranted them, and said she had "no information" that lottery staff actually taught the Selbees how to operate the machines.

Selbee said the lottery also should have understood that for smart bettors like Yuran Lu, and himself, plundering Cash WinFall would be relatively easy.

All you needed was access to enough cash to quietly push the jackpot to $2 million earlier than the lottery was predicting — which is exactly what Lu's group did Aug. 16.

Selbee said he could have done the same thing but believed it was unfair to the other players, who would miss the chance to jump in when the prizes were most valuable.

Lu has a documented history of high-tech pranks. A 2007 MIT graduate with majors in electrical engineering, computer science and math, Lu was an especially clever student — described by the school's daily newspaper, The Tech, as having a "distinguished academic record even by MIT standards." But he also gained a reputation as an accomplished hacker.

He once collected hundreds of passwords to MIT's computer system and sent them to the administration to show how easy it was, the paper reported. He also broke into the Chinese Student Club's website, replacing it with a "Hacked by Chinese" version. He at first agreed to be interviewed about Cash WinFall, but later did not return phone calls.

According to lottery officials, Yu appeared at headquarters in 2005 saying he was working on a statistics paper and wanted information about the game. Officials believe he was among the first to place large wagers on Cash WinFall.

During a four-day stretch between Aug. 13 and Aug. 16, 2010, Lu and his MIT classmate James Harvey, who also did not return phone calls from the Globe, bought nearly $1.4 million in tickets.

When the jackpot exceeded $2 million Aug. 16 and no one won, the rolldown automatically began. Lu's group cashed in winning tickets of between $2.3 and $2.5 million, by experts' estimates. (The lottery keeps records of only prizes cashed worth $600 or more.)

The lottery's failure to see the rolldown coming meant the general public did not increase their play in response to it, and cities and towns — the recipients of the state's lottery proceeds — lost revenue. Bresnahan said the lottery computers use a formula based on historical sales data to predict when the jackpot will be hit, and that that formula could not take account of Lu's sudden buying spree.

And because so few players bet, the payouts Aug. 16 — which included a prize of $30,282 for picking five numbers accurately — were the highest since 2008.

After the August rolldown caught him off guard, Selbee — whose 32-member group includes five lawyers, a certified public accountant and a bank vice president — wanted to make sure it didn't happen again.

In December 2010, just before Christmas, he suspected someone might try to manipulate the game again as the jackpot grew closer to the $2 million trigger.

Midday on Christmas Eve, Mardas called Lottery headquarters in Braintree to see whether anyone had started buying tickets in bulk. When he was told big blocs of tickets were being sold, the Michigan group jumped in, but had already lost a few hours of buying time. Had they known the rolldown was imminent, the machines would have started spewing tickets just after dawn.

At 3 a.m. Christmas morning, the lottery announced that the next jackpot would hit $2 million and could prompt a rolldown.

On Christmas Day, someone identifying himself as a member of one of the other gambling groups showed up at Jerry's Place, looking for Selbee. He suggested that if the groups coordinated their playing, it could be "mutually beneficial to both of us." Selbee said he turned him away.

"It's not illegal, but take a look at the effect of it," Selbee said. "It's unfair to all players, whether they're big or small.

On Dec. 27, 2010, the jackpot hit $2.3 million. No one matched all six numbers and the rolldown occurred. The prizes were smaller because this time, everyone played.

Boston Globe

Comments

rdgrnr's avatarrdgrnr

Typical Government CYOA (Cover Your Own Azz) by lottery officials.

Deny, deny, deny, punish some low level nobody somewhere and move on.

Same as it ever was.

dpoly1's avatardpoly1

Wow, must have been evil Republicans in charge, oh wait .............. this was in The Peoples Democratic Republic of Massachusetts. Red Devil

Can't wait for the next Powerball Drawing ! Sun Smiley

truecritic's avatartruecritic

Hey...Gerry Selbee from Michigan...if you are a member here, CONGRATULATIONS! 

Hey Dude! That's cool!

Likewise, Yuran Lu, congratulations!

Great Job!             Good Work!

If another "excellent" opportunity opens up somewhere, I have an extra $20 I can chip in, be sure to get a hold of me! ROFL

temptustoo's avatartemptustoo

OFF WITH THEIR HEADS

RJOh's avatarRJOh

These people are continuously referred to as very smart when anyone with lots of money and a little knowledge could have done the same thing. 

If they were really smart enough to beat a lottery that hadn't been set up to favor them, then they would be in Ohio trying to win its Classic Lotto(649) which has a jackpot of $50M and odds of 1:14M of winning it.

Problem is the only way to guarantee winning the jackpot is to buy all 14M possible combinations and hope no one else does the same with a $1 QP.  Even then they could break even since the cash value is $25M and they would win 258 match5 prizes worth $1500 ea., 13545 match4 prizes worth $70 ea. and 246820 match3 prizes worth $2 ea.

joshuacloak's avatarjoshuacloak

dont blame the players

blame the game

jackpot caps, and share the wealth that is the idea behind 'rolldowns" is the enemy

 

a "rolling" jackpot game should never have cap

powerball getting rid of the cap come 2012 changes

 

the fact is, the state designed a major design fall, the rundown, and  these groups did the math, and and came out on top. cease lower prizes paid will NOW.

 

as to what , RJOh , your spot on

the fact is,  these groups can't buy all 14M possible combinations, its to much of a RISK.      they like a sure thing

the amount that sells is the jackpot, higher it is, the better. 

caping the jackpot and giving lower end winners more money is not smartest design via redirecting jackpot prize pool to lower prize pools in my mind.

and the fact is if you reward match 4 out 6, 5 out of 6, at cost of  jackpot,   stuff like this is bond to happen,  glad these people used  it , it just shows us how stupid such designs are in lottery jackpot games.

Genome

Im going to buy $100 worth when it hits that $2,000,000 mark in 1 or 2 draws. Hopefully I can match 4 once and Ill be good with an $800 win instead of the $150 win.

maringoman's avatarmaringoman

Quote: Originally posted by Genome on Oct 16, 2011

Im going to buy $100 worth when it hits that $2,000,000 mark in 1 or 2 draws. Hopefully I can match 4 once and Ill be good with an $800 win instead of the $150 win.

Good luck man. I think its great to do that. I myself I'm still chasing the MegaBucks JP to the point that I'm blind to the other games.

I hope you hit big.

Genome

Quote: Originally posted by maringoman on Oct 16, 2011

Good luck man. I think its great to do that. I myself I'm still chasing the MegaBucks JP to the point that I'm blind to the other games.

I hope you hit big.

Yeah I want that MB jackpot too. 7.9 million. Someone has to win that soon, if its not me, I hope its you.

maringoman's avatarmaringoman

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Oct 16, 2011

These people are continuously referred to as very smart when anyone with lots of money and a little knowledge could have done the same thing. 

If they were really smart enough to beat a lottery that hadn't been set up to favor them, then they would be in Ohio trying to win its Classic Lotto(649) which has a jackpot of $50M and odds of 1:14M of winning it.

Problem is the only way to guarantee winning the jackpot is to buy all 14M possible combinations and hope no one else does the same with a $1 QP.  Even then they could break even since the cash value is $25M and they would win 258 match5 prizes worth $1500 ea., 13545 match4 prizes worth $70 ea. and 246820 match3 prizes worth $2 ea.

If I lived in Ohio I'd only play the Classic Lotto especially with a JP that high. The odds are much lower than those of pb and mm.

RJOh's avatarRJOh

Quote: Originally posted by maringoman on Oct 16, 2011

If I lived in Ohio I'd only play the Classic Lotto especially with a JP that high. The odds are much lower than those of pb and mm.

True if you're only looking at the jackpots, but the overall odds of winning a prize playing MM and PB are 1:40 and 1:35 while the overall odds of winning a Classic Lotto prize are 1:54 and that prize is likely to only $2. 

It's only the jackpot size that makes it more attractive than the other two games.  Still with a jackpot of $105M, PB may attract more players Wednesday.  Fortunately, OCL has no competition on Monday.

RJOh's avatarRJOh

Quote: Originally posted by joshuacloak on Oct 16, 2011

dont blame the players

blame the game

jackpot caps, and share the wealth that is the idea behind 'rolldowns" is the enemy

 

a "rolling" jackpot game should never have cap

powerball getting rid of the cap come 2012 changes

 

the fact is, the state designed a major design fall, the rundown, and  these groups did the math, and and came out on top. cease lower prizes paid will NOW.

 

as to what , RJOh , your spot on

the fact is,  these groups can't buy all 14M possible combinations, its to much of a RISK.      they like a sure thing

the amount that sells is the jackpot, higher it is, the better. 

caping the jackpot and giving lower end winners more money is not smartest design via redirecting jackpot prize pool to lower prize pools in my mind.

and the fact is if you reward match 4 out 6, 5 out of 6, at cost of  jackpot,   stuff like this is bond to happen,  glad these people used  it , it just shows us how stupid such designs are in lottery jackpot games.

fact is if you reward match 4 out 6, 5 out of 6, at cost of  jackpot,   stuff like this is bond to happen

I agree, if the point was to design a game with larger payouts and jackpots won at $2M-$2.5M then they should have designed a game that was easier for everyone to win, not just the big spenders.

mjwinsmith's avatarmjwinsmith

Pure plain and simple the idiots in Massachusetts got beat at their own game, so they blame the Group of players. Give me a <snip> break, it's YOUR game, you make the rules, if someone comes in and wins pay 'em and shut the f&#$ UP!

>Michael

This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

rdgrnr's avatarrdgrnr

Re RJOh's Post:     

 "...they should have designed a game that was easier for everyone to win..."

That's a concept beyond the capacity of government bean counters to grasp.

They could no more do that than accept the fact that lowering taxes can increase revenue.

Does not compute. 

CLETU$

Quote: Originally posted by mjwinsmith on Oct 17, 2011

Pure plain and simple the idiots in Massachusetts got beat at their own game, so they blame the Group of players. Give me a <snip> break, it's YOUR game, you make the rules, if someone comes in and wins pay 'em and shut the f&#$ UP!

>Michael

This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

Yep,makes perfect sense to me.Now go change the rules so nobody can win.

time*treat's avatartime*treat

This story contrasts well with the one about the TN lottery. https://www.lotterypost.com/news/237608

State does well, it's all good.

Players do well, throw a fit & end the game.

Stack47

The state lottery allowed this to go on because it made 40% to 50% profit from all the wagers. The integrity of the game became an issue when it was discovered small groups of people were winning the majority of the secondary prizes. And because of the size of the bets, it diluted the amount of payoffs expected by regular players.

Because the larger secondary prize payoffs were a result of the rollback of the jackpot, the lottery had already made its profit. The lottery did alert all the players when a rollback was expected, but one of the groups found a way to create the rollback that was unexpected and players were not notified until it was too late.

PERDUE

I admit that I am so slow, I'm going backwards.......

Does this mean that if I follow my gut instinct on 4 key numbers in my number crunching and decide to drop somewhere between $500 to $10,000 following a hunch, that I am doing something wrong?

I understand that these "whales" had a larger budget to work with.

But does that mean when the "non-whales" go for it we are going to be denied the opportunity to see if we were right or wrong?

Does this mean that if we are right on the money with our 4 key numbers and we spend the $500 to $10,000, then we don't get paid all of our winnings?

Seems to me that the other "whales" are miffed because "young buck" beat them at their own game and forced their hand.

I find it hard to believe that the original "whales" gave a "fat-rats'-azz" about the other lottery players getting in on the rolldown payout.

This is AMERICA!!

Rule #1:  "THE BANKROLL RULES.........." (Sir-Mix-Alot)

That's why during "rolldown season" the "whales" swim to the bank with millions and the average joe blow don't.

JonnyBgood07's avatarJonnyBgood07

Quote: Originally posted by time*treat on Oct 17, 2011

This story contrasts well with the one about the TN lottery. https://www.lotterypost.com/news/237608

State does well, it's all good.

Players do well, throw a fit & end the game.

my thoughts exactly

rdgrnr's avatarrdgrnr

Quote: Originally posted by time*treat on Oct 17, 2011

This story contrasts well with the one about the TN lottery. https://www.lotterypost.com/news/237608

State does well, it's all good.

Players do well, throw a fit & end the game.

Oh, the state always does well in TN.

Even if they have to make sure the computer doesn't let any doubles win for a while.

It's like Malcolm X said: "By any means necessary."

End of comments
Subscribe to this news story