The Low Down on the Mega Millions Numbers (Pick 5 Part)Prev Topic Next Topic

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Do you think the drawn numbers were too low?

Yes

[ 14 ]

[ 34.2% ]

Maybe

[ 6 ]

[ 14.6% ]

[ 21 ]

[ 51.2% ]

Total valid votes

[ 41 ]

Discarded votes

[ 4 ]

JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
4,811 Posts
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Mar 21, 2012, 11:01 am

Here's a run down on some probabilities.

Mega Millions Pick 5 Part
- Probability of Having -		% Probability
None Greater Than	None Less Than	% Probability
5	52	0.00002618%
6	51	0.00015708%
7	50	0.00054976%
8	49	0.00146604%
9	48	0.00329859%
10	47	0.00659718%
11	46	0.01209482%
12	45	0.02073398%
13	44	0.03369272%
14	43	0.05241090%
15	42	0.07861635%
16	41	0.11435106%
17	40	0.16199733%
18	39	0.22430400%
19	38	0.30441257%
20	37	0.40588342%
21	36	0.53272199%
22	35	0.68940493%
23	34	0.88090631%
24	33	1.11272375%
25	32	1.39090469%
26	31	1.72207248%
27	30	2.11345259%
28	29	2.57289880%
29	28	3.10891938%
30	27	3.73070326%
31	26	4.44814619%
32	25	5.27187697%
33	24	6.21328357%
34	23	7.28453936%
35	22	8.49862925%
36	21	9.86937591%
37	20	11.41146589%
38	19	13.14047588%
39	18	15.07289880%
40	17	17.22617006%
41	16	19.61869368%
42	15	22.26986850%
43	14	25.20011435%
44	13	28.43089824%
45	12	31.98476052%
46	11	35.88534107%
47	10	40.15740549%
48	9	44.82687124%
49	8	49.92083388%
50	7	55.46759320%
51	6	61.49667942%
52	5	68.03887936%
53	4	75.12626263%
54	3	82.79220779%
55	2	91.07142857%
56	1	100.00000000%

The One Over None
I Know...

HoLeeKau

Idaho
United States
Member #94,279
July 17, 2010
2,453 Posts
Offline

Mar 21, 2012, 11:56 am

"Do you think the drawn numbers were too low?"

Too low for what?
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
4,811 Posts
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Mar 21, 2012, 12:19 pm

Quote: Originally posted by HoLeeKau on Mar 21, 2012
"Do you think the drawn numbers were too low?"

Too low for what?

Exactly.

Answering a question with a question doesn't answer the original question.

At best, you restated the original question.

The One Over None
I Know...
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
4,811 Posts
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Mar 21, 2012, 12:33 pm

Anyone answering this with another question will be interpreted as 'Rhetorical'; a question you are asking yourself out loud and must be answered by yourself.

The One Over None
I Know...
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline

Mar 21, 2012, 3:29 pm

While the last drawing had the lowest sum(36) in MegaMillions/BigGame history, other drawings had smaller ranges and lower highest numbers.

03/20/12 - 01 04 06 11 14 +30
09/10/10 - 11 12 17 21 23 +20
09/15/09 - 29 30 32 35 41 +39
09/27/02 - 23 27 30 33 36 +05
-BigGame became MegaMillions-05/17/02
04/02/02 - 34 37 38 39 42 +21
12/04/01 - 17 21 22 24 30 +07
05/25/01 - 12 13 17 20 22 +33
01/02/01 - 07 08 11 12 13 +12
02/22/00 - 33 35 36 40 43 +11
02/20/98 - 09 11 12 17 19 +13

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
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Member #21
December 7, 2001
4,811 Posts
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Mar 21, 2012, 4:40 pm

Here's the symmetry of none greater than 14... none less than 43.

Just as a comparison.

The One Over None
I Know...
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
4,811 Posts
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Mar 21, 2012, 4:49 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on Mar 21, 2012
Here's the symmetry of none greater than 14... none less than 43.

Just as a comparison.

We did a search and didn't find any draws where all the Pick 5 numbers had none less than 43.

The One Over None
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mediabrat

upstate NY
United States
Member #108,786
March 31, 2011
549 Posts
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Mar 21, 2012, 10:34 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on Mar 21, 2012
Exactly.

Answering a question with a question doesn't answer the original question.

At best, you restated the original question.

Perhaps it was a request for clarification.

Personally, I don't understand the original question. Or, to be more precise, I don't understand the premise of the original question. Yes, all of the numbers were on the lower end of the spectrum, and yes, that's statistically improbable. But I wouldn't attribute anything to it beyond the luck of the draw.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline

Mar 22, 2012, 12:21 am

Quote: Originally posted by mediabrat on Mar 21, 2012
Perhaps it was a request for clarification.

Personally, I don't understand the original question. Or, to be more precise, I don't understand the premise of the original question. Yes, all of the numbers were on the lower end of the spectrum, and yes, that's statistically improbable. But I wouldn't attribute anything to it beyond the luck of the draw.

68 tickets matching five of any combination is statistically improbable and there seems not to have been a common source as in the PB fortune cookie incident.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
Masone

United States
Member #124,808
March 20, 2012
219 Posts
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Mar 22, 2012, 12:49 am

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Mar 22, 2012
68 tickets matching five of any combination is statistically improbable and there seems not to have been a common source as in the PB fortune cookie incident.

I attribute it to people playing birthdays. A lot of people play birthdays, which means a lot of people play low numbers. I was for sure someone was going to win it when I seen all those low numbers. Had I played my family's birthdays, I would have gotten 4+0. It must have killed all those people to just miss out on the mega number, that's my worst nightmare. The money isn't bad(you're 250k richer!), but just missing out on 241 million? Ouch.
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
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December 7, 2001
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Mar 22, 2012, 7:50 am

For further clarity, we see an answer to a question with a question as being in one of two beginning categories:

1. You are confounded by the original question.

2. You are trying to confound the original question.

The first, we'd have to say look at the question everyone: no big words and it asks for an opinion, not another question.

We suggest anyone with a definition question find a dictionary, library with a dictionary, or here's the online dictionary; wikitionary at http://en.wiktionary.org .

It's recommended that anyone having problems with the wording look up the word they are stumbling on and see how it's being used in the basic context of the question.

The second, well, that deserves no response.

Thinking this will throw in the sabot, "Define _________ ", that too is a question.

This isn't an insurance policy or someone trying to weasel their way out of court case.

We're using same language we all can agree on and is fully defined.

The One Over None
I Know...
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
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December 7, 2001
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Mar 22, 2012, 9:53 am

Here's a wheel we generated from our program at http://www.jadexcode.com/JADEXHOME/ASimpleWheelGenerator.aspx for the Pick 5 part.

You might want to use it for those really tight spots like the one we've seen here.

Hint-hint, wink-wink.

Wheel
- Pick 5
- 14 Numbers
- 14 Combinations
- 0.699301% Coverage of 2,002 Combinations

Condition
- If 5 Drawn Numbers are in the Set of 14 Numbers,
- Then at least 1 Combination has 3 Winning Numbers.
____________________________________________
02 04 05 09 13
01 02 06 08 14
03 04 09 11 12
01 03 04 08 13
05 07 08 10 12
01 04 05 12 14
01 02 07 11 12
03 06 07 09 10
06 10 11 12 13
01 05 06 09 11
02 04 08 10 11
05 07 11 13 14
08 09 10 13 14
02 03 10 12 14
____________________________________________

The One Over None
I Know...
JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
4,811 Posts
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Mar 22, 2012, 10:04 am

Oh, and by the way, our initial probabilities statement, the symmetry reference, and recently posted wheel is meant for those trained in the Mathemagical Arts.

Those of you not familiar with wheels or other mathemagical related items are free to research them by using the Lottery Post 'Search for something' feature in the upper right under the menu bar heading 'Resources'.

In addition, you have a whole World Wide Web at your disposal, use it; that's what it's there for.

The One Over None
I Know...

dallascowboyfan

Oklahoma
United States
Member #82,389
November 12, 2009
6,374 Posts
Offline

Mar 22, 2012, 12:09 pm

Quote: Originally posted by JADELottery on Mar 21, 2012

Here's a run down on some probabilities.

Mega Millions Pick 5 Part
- Probability of Having -		% Probability
None Greater Than	None Less Than	% Probability
5	52	0.00002618%
6	51	0.00015708%
7	50	0.00054976%
8	49	0.00146604%
9	48	0.00329859%
10	47	0.00659718%
11	46	0.01209482%
12	45	0.02073398%
13	44	0.03369272%
14	43	0.05241090%
15	42	0.07861635%
16	41	0.11435106%
17	40	0.16199733%
18	39	0.22430400%
19	38	0.30441257%
20	37	0.40588342%
21	36	0.53272199%
22	35	0.68940493%
23	34	0.88090631%
24	33	1.11272375%
25	32	1.39090469%
26	31	1.72207248%
27	30	2.11345259%
28	29	2.57289880%
29	28	3.10891938%
30	27	3.73070326%
31	26	4.44814619%
32	25	5.27187697%
33	24	6.21328357%
34	23	7.28453936%
35	22	8.49862925%
36	21	9.86937591%
37	20	11.41146589%
38	19	13.14047588%
39	18	15.07289880%
40	17	17.22617006%
41	16	19.61869368%
42	15	22.26986850%
43	14	25.20011435%
44	13	28.43089824%
45	12	31.98476052%
46	11	35.88534107%
47	10	40.15740549%
48	9	44.82687124%
49	8	49.92083388%
50	7	55.46759320%
51	6	61.49667942%
52	5	68.03887936%
53	4	75.12626263%
54	3	82.79220779%
55	2	91.07142857%
56	1	100.00000000%

I voted no, just mad that I didn't play those numbers.....LOL

JADELottery

Native American Eagle Sun

MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
4,811 Posts
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Mar 22, 2012, 12:14 pm

Quote: Originally posted by dallascowboyfan on Mar 22, 2012
I voted no, just mad that I didn't play those numbers.....LOL

At this point, I'm the only one that voted 'maybe'.

Part of me says 'no' based on probability, but part of me says 'yes' due to the imbalance in symmetry.

We'll see how things go from here on out.

The One Over None
I Know...

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