Who has better odds of hitting 3 of 5 ?Prev Topic Next Topic

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Ronnie316

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Oct 9, 2012, 7:30 pm

Playing the 5/56 game with 46 QPs....

OR

Playing the 5/56 game with a 2 if 5 of 56 wheel with 46 lines....

I believe the wheel has almost 3 times better chance of hitting 3 of 5,

Im just not sure about the math.....
mcginnin56

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Oct 9, 2012, 8:52 pm

Quality raised, range free, grain fed, wholesome, pure random QP's, will always have the better odds.
AlgorithmGuru

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Oct 10, 2012, 3:28 am

Quote: Originally posted by mcginnin56 on Oct 9, 2012
Quality raised, range free, grain fed, wholesome, pure random QP's, will always have the better odds.

LOL. so I'm going to jump in and play a little semantics game really quick (this isn't an attack, just a semantical note lol). So the reality is, all the numbers have the exact same OODS of hitting in any drawing. The QP's don't have better odds, they have a better statiscal win history. That does not mean that the best numbers to play are QP's. Actually you could argue that QP's hit the most because the most people play them. All this is indicative of is the natural order of the randomness. In other words, in a random system of guessing, the more people guessing using a particular method will probably generate the most wins simply by the amount of guesses thrown at the game. Imagine instead if we didn't count the number of wins per se. But instead we count the number of wins versus the number of guesses versus the total amount of possibilities. In this case the results might be substantially different. For instance if my winning strategy produces winning results once a week per 10 guesses (1 out of 10) and quick pick results are 100 wins per 1,000,000 (1 out of 10,000) which would you prefer? Sure the qp's won 99 more times this week than my system, but you could evaluate the odds to 9 to 1 or 9,999 to 1. Of course like I said, the odds actually are the same, but what we're talking about is the imperical historical comparison of one system to another and rating the implied "odds" of those systems against each other.

Mcginnin: your signature says it all - the QP's have the SAME ODDS of hitting as do any numbers selected from a system. As for the OP's original question: I have no idea which method will give better historical evidence of a favor one way or the other. I know that every time I've ever played a QP i've lost, but then again I've never won by picking either. lol. Back to the drawing board. :) Sorry about the semantical digression, I just thought it was interesting to note.

If it's not consistent, it's irrelevant :)
Ronnie316

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Oct 10, 2012, 10:12 am

Thanks for the lengthy response,

but I came to this thread asking for a math solution not semantical digression.

Lets look at it this way. How many random lines can be played WITHOUT getting 2 of 5 on a single line?
mcginnin56

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Oct 10, 2012, 2:15 pm

Quote: Originally posted by AlgorithmGuru on Oct 10, 2012
LOL. so I'm going to jump in and play a little semantics game really quick (this isn't an attack, just a semantical note lol). So the reality is, all the numbers have the exact same OODS of hitting in any drawing. The QP's don't have better odds, they have a better statiscal win history. That does not mean that the best numbers to play are QP's. Actually you could argue that QP's hit the most because the most people play them. All this is indicative of is the natural order of the randomness. In other words, in a random system of guessing, the more people guessing using a particular method will probably generate the most wins simply by the amount of guesses thrown at the game. Imagine instead if we didn't count the number of wins per se. But instead we count the number of wins versus the number of guesses versus the total amount of possibilities. In this case the results might be substantially different. For instance if my winning strategy produces winning results once a week per 10 guesses (1 out of 10) and quick pick results are 100 wins per 1,000,000 (1 out of 10,000) which would you prefer? Sure the qp's won 99 more times this week than my system, but you could evaluate the odds to 9 to 1 or 9,999 to 1. Of course like I said, the odds actually are the same, but what we're talking about is the imperical historical comparison of one system to another and rating the implied "odds" of those systems against each other.

Mcginnin: your signature says it all - the QP's have the SAME ODDS of hitting as do any numbers selected from a system. As for the OP's original question: I have no idea which method will give better historical evidence of a favor one way or the other. I know that every time I've ever played a QP i've lost, but then again I've never won by picking either. lol. Back to the drawing board. :) Sorry about the semantical digression, I just thought it was interesting to note.

Thank you for that informative and educational response Algo.

I agree with everything, and was just giving 'ol Ronnie316 a run for his money.

He did very well last evening in the predictions board for MM's. Accordingly he should be treated with the highest level of respect and dignity.
mediabrat

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Oct 10, 2012, 4:47 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on Oct 10, 2012
Thanks for the lengthy response,

but I came to this thread asking for a math solution not semantical digression.

Lets look at it this way. How many random lines can be played WITHOUT getting 2 of 5 on a single line?

That's the thing with random, though: you can't predict random. I could play two QPs and hit 2 out of 5 on one or both of them. I could play 10, 15, 20 QPs or more and not get two matches on any of them. There is no reliable mathematical solution.
Ronnie316

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Oct 10, 2012, 4:54 pm

Quote: Originally posted by mediabrat on Oct 10, 2012
That's the thing with random, though: you can't predict random. I could play two QPs and hit 2 out of 5 on one or both of them. I could play 10, 15, 20 QPs or more and not get two matches on any of them. There is no reliable mathematical solution.

Finding a "reliable mathematical solution" is not the objective.

If a 2 if 5 of 56 wheel is guarenteed a 2 of 5 match on 46 lines, someone plaease explain why any random 46 lines is NOT guarenteed a 2 of 5 match??
Ronnie316

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Oct 10, 2012, 5:07 pm

In other words, why are the odds of hitting 3 of 5 BETTER on a 2 if 5 of 56 wheel than on QPs.

Am I to understand that the odds are NOT better?? Its just the luck of the draw??
Ronnie316

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Oct 10, 2012, 5:18 pm

Quote: Originally posted by mcginnin56 on Oct 10, 2012
Thank you for that informative and educational response Algo.

I agree with everything, and was just giving 'ol Ronnie316 a run for his money.

He did very well last evening in the predictions board for MM's. Accordingly he should be treated with the highest level of respect and dignity.

If I'm just dreaming here I will be happy to find out that I'm wrong........ But when I have a 2 number match guaranteed on 46 lines and the other 54 numbers have 3 chances to land on that same line my odds are 3 in 54 of hitting 3 of 5 and that's about 3 times BETTER than the 46 in 308 chance that your QPs have.........

Someone do the math please, and tell me if I'm wrong??
Coin Toss

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Oct 10, 2012, 5:28 pm

Quote: Originally posted by mcginnin56 on Oct 9, 2012
Quality raised, range free, grain fed, wholesome, pure random QP's, will always have the better odds.

Free Range QP's?

Boy would that look great on a playslip:

QP

FRQP

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
Ronnie316

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Oct 10, 2012, 5:30 pm

Quote: Originally posted by mediabrat on Oct 10, 2012
That's the thing with random, though: you can't predict random. I could play two QPs and hit 2 out of 5 on one or both of them. I could play 10, 15, 20 QPs or more and not get two matches on any of them. There is no reliable mathematical solution.

Thats like saying it doesnt really matter if I play 60 tickets and you play 20 tickets because you "could" have more winners on your 20 tickets than I have on my 60 tickets
Coin Toss

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Oct 10, 2012, 5:57 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on Oct 10, 2012
Thats like saying it doesnt really matter if I play 60 tickets and you play 20 tickets because you "could" have more winners on your 20 tickets than I have on my 60 tickets

Happens all the time, doesn't it?

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
Ronnie316

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Oct 10, 2012, 7:03 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Oct 10, 2012
Happens all the time, doesn't it?

Sure...... In some alternate reality......
mcginnin56

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Oct 10, 2012, 7:32 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Ronnie316 on Oct 10, 2012
If I'm just dreaming here I will be happy to find out that I'm wrong........ But when I have a 2 number match guaranteed on 46 lines and the other 54 numbers have 3 chances to land on that same line my odds are 3 in 54 of hitting 3 of 5 and that's about 3 times BETTER than the 46 in 308 chance that your QPs have.........

Someone do the math please, and tell me if I'm wrong??

Sounds like you need a certified mathematician/Lotto Guru/programmer analyst to assist you in this area.

Normally I would recommend speaking to the reputable IndianaKid, but he is temporarily on a leave of extended absence.

You might consider running this by THRIFTY, RJ, or Stack for further analysis.

Good luck Ronnie316!
riscknight

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Oct 11, 2012, 9:49 am

Hello Ronnie316.

You select 5 numbers from 56.

In order to have 3 numbers correct, your "chances" are 1 in 300. That equals to 12.750 combinations that you'll have to play.

For getting 2 numbers, 1 in 18 and 208.250 combinations.

Would you like to let me know how many numbers you're thinking about wheeling? And, if you can copy & paste those numbers here in order to test & verify them on some filters?

Regards.

I'd rather ask for forgiveness instead of permission

6/49 dis(assembly)

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