What the final rollover probability on the 590.4M Jackpot was.Prev TopicNext Topic

• Prob988

  

  New Jersey
  United States
  Member #21,205
  September 4, 2005
  963 Posts
  Offline
  May 19, 2013, 9:37 pm

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  The outcome, one winner, was in fact, this time, the most probable outcome.

  For the 464.5M dollars worth of tickets sold, with the number of tickets being half that amount the final probabilities using a randomized Poison distribution was as follows:

  k, number of winners	p(m,k)
  0	26.57%
  1	35.21%
  2	23.34%
  3	10.31%
  4	3.42%
  5	0.91%
  6	0.20%
  7	0.04%
  8	0.01%

  The second most probable outcome was another rollover, which might have brought the jackpot close to a billion dollars.     The ridiculously low expectation values for most powerball drawings - this one did not exceed 1.00 but managed to be 0.93 - assures that the powerball will produce similar jackpots in the future, owing to the irrationality of players.   And yes, I did play this one myself, so I'm as irrational as the next guy.    It does seem probable that every 4th or 5th time the jackpot reaches this kind of figure, it will rollover again, producing a new record jackpot.
• ressuccess

  

  United States
  Member #93,160
  June 23, 2010
  3,141 Posts
  Offline
  May 23, 2013, 4:35 pm

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  Prob988, Florida won this Powerball Jackpot at 590.5 million dollars with the winning numbers are 10-13-14-22-52 Powerball 11.
• duckman

  

  Jacksonville Florida
  United States
  Member #23,017
  October 6, 2005
  1,111 Posts
  Offline
  May 23, 2013, 8:42 pm

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  In response to Prob988

  Quote: Originally posted by Prob988 on May 19, 2013

  The outcome, one winner, was in fact, this time, the most probable outcome.

  For the 464.5M dollars worth of tickets sold, with the number of tickets being half that amount the final probabilities using a randomized Poison distribution was as follows:

  k, number of winners	p(m,k)
  0	26.57%
  1	35.21%
  2	23.34%
  3	10.31%
  4	3.42%
  5	0.91%
  6	0.20%
  7	0.04%
  8	0.01%

  The second most probable outcome was another rollover, which might have brought the jackpot close to a billion dollars.     The ridiculously low expectation values for most powerball drawings - this one did not exceed 1.00 but managed to be 0.93 - assures that the powerball will produce similar jackpots in the future, owing to the irrationality of players.   And yes, I did play this one myself, so I'm as irrational as the next guy.    It does seem probable that every 4th or 5th time the jackpot reaches this kind of figure, it will rollover again, producing a new record jackpot.

  What would really be interesting to see is the actual number of combinations not picked ...
• veganlife125

  

  United States
  Member #142,771
  May 18, 2013
  263 Posts
  Offline
  May 24, 2013, 12:09 pm

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  Good work Prob.  I'd like to see the probability numbers for the Friday March 30, 2012 mega millions which was at $656 Million but with an added KICKER.  Substitute the new 1 in 258 million odds vs the current 1 in 175 million odds and lets see a comparison.

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