Do some people not care how much they spend on lottery and feel it will be worth it if you win?Prev Topic Next Topic

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Stack47

Kentucky
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February 14, 2006
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Sep 4, 2013, 12:55 pm

Quote: Originally posted by bigbear29 on Sep 3, 2013
Something does not sound right in what you said, "being in the right place at the right time". Would it matter where you buy the ticket, oppose to the time you buy the ticket? I'm one of those people that is still on the fence about the ramdomness of PB/MM picking the winning numbers.

It means some times one of the lottery terminals somewhere in one of the states will print the same numbers that are drawn. The trick is being the person that buys that ticket at the time it's printed. Where that ticket is printed and at what time it will be printed is just as random as the drawing. We can pick our own numbers and at some time those numbers will be drawn, but it could take millions of years.

Compare the number of drawings without a jackpot winning ticket to the number of tickets sold during that time to get an idea how difficult it is to win a jackpot. It's been 11 drawings since the last MM jackpot was won and close to 175 million tickets were sold. But because none of those tickets can win the next jackpot, we can only compare the numbers of tickets in that drawing to the number of overall combinations. If 20 million tickets are sold, there is about a 11% chance the next jackpot will be won. When over half the combinations are sold there is over a 50% probability the next ticket sold will have the same combination as one the tickets already sold so it may take 100 million tickets in one drawing just to get a 50% chance the jackpot is won.

"I'm one of those people that is still on the fence about the ramdomness of PB/MM picking the winning numbers."

We know when we purchase one QP the terminal will print out one of over 175 million different combinations and to win the jackpot, the combination we purchased must overcome another 175 million to one odds. Because I can see the method they use to pick the numbers, I'm more confident in the randomness of the drawing than the random process used to distribute QPs that I can't see. From the players' point of view, they asked for one of over 175 million combinations and get it. From the Lottery's point of view they gave the player one of over 175 million combinations regardless if that one combination was unique or several other tickets matched it.
LottoMetro

Happyland
United States
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September 1, 2013
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Sep 5, 2013, 5:50 am

A little bit can really add up. People who play even $5-10 a draw or buy scratchers every other day really don't realize how much they spend.

Like I mentioned in another post, several years ago I was a frequent player. The most I ever spent was a grand in one year. $1,000 down the tubes. That was really the wake-up call for me. I was winning but not enough to justify spending that much (might as well go to casino and bet it on red)!

Nowadays I do much better...I track every purchase, buy very infrequently and typically only get games with the best odds. So far this year I have won ~45% of tickets purchased with half of those being better than breakeven.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
GiveFive

Florida - West Coast
United States
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June 10, 2010
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Sep 5, 2013, 6:15 am

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Sep 4, 2013
It means some times one of the lottery terminals somewhere in one of the states will print the same numbers that are drawn. The trick is being the person that buys that ticket at the time it's printed. Where that ticket is printed and at what time it will be printed is just as random as the drawing. We can pick our own numbers and at some time those numbers will be drawn, but it could take millions of years.

Compare the number of drawings without a jackpot winning ticket to the number of tickets sold during that time to get an idea how difficult it is to win a jackpot. It's been 11 drawings since the last MM jackpot was won and close to 175 million tickets were sold. But because none of those tickets can win the next jackpot, we can only compare the numbers of tickets in that drawing to the number of overall combinations. If 20 million tickets are sold, there is about a 11% chance the next jackpot will be won. When over half the combinations are sold there is over a 50% probability the next ticket sold will have the same combination as one the tickets already sold so it may take 100 million tickets in one drawing just to get a 50% chance the jackpot is won.

"I'm one of those people that is still on the fence about the ramdomness of PB/MM picking the winning numbers."

We know when we purchase one QP the terminal will print out one of over 175 million different combinations and to win the jackpot, the combination we purchased must overcome another 175 million to one odds. Because I can see the method they use to pick the numbers, I'm more confident in the randomness of the drawing than the random process used to distribute QPs that I can't see. From the players' point of view, they asked for one of over 175 million combinations and get it. From the Lottery's point of view they gave the player one of over 175 million combinations regardless if that one combination was unique or several other tickets matched it.

What you so very expertly described in your second paragraph is called "coverage" by lottery officials.

If 50% of all the possible 175 million combinations have been purchased ("covered"), then there's a 50% chance someone will win the jackpot. With most drawings, coverage is far less than 50%, that's why jackpots aren't won and grow.

There's an online game here in New York that The Lottery freely admits has a "coverage problem". Very rarely is a jackpot won. Although the odds of winning one million dollars are very good (it has the lowest odds to win one million dollars that I've ever seen anywhere) players dont particularly like the prize structure of the game, therefore they don't buy many tickets. Consequently coverage has run at about 10% of the 3.8 million possible combo's for almost all of the drawings. 10% cverage means 90% of the possible 3.8 million combo's are "uncovered" or not purchased.

Play Smart!
Romancandle

Upacreek
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Sep 5, 2013, 10:52 am

Quote: Originally posted by Artist77 on Sep 3, 2013
"I've had so many loses over these last almost 4 years of playing. I'm still trying to be optimistic about winning the lottery even with all my bad luck. When I get the urge to just go nuts on playing I have a pep talk with myself and try to remember that I must continue to be a responsible lottery player. Have to say though, there are times that I wish I had never started to play the lottery because I would now have that money in the bank."

I know this will be ignored and I have said this before but I am concerned with how the lottery seems to depress you and how you blame yourself. I have not won a major JP and I would never blame myself (it is random and luck) and 99.99% of the people on this site are not internalizing it like you are. You echo these same themes over and over in your past posts. If you regret spending the money and are obviously missing that money, then you should not play. I have a feeling you are spending way more that you are admitting. I really hope you find the means to focus on other things in your life, then the lottery will be less central to your life. I cannot in good conscience pat you on the head and say "awwww....your ship will come in someday." It is very unlikely you will even get the money back that you spent. It will not solve your existing issues.

Well said Artist77

You may win "someday", but don't bet your lunch money on it...

I echo what Artist77 said, nothing wrong with believing that you'll hit it and being a little disappointed when you don't, but getting depressed; well that's not healthy for you in the long run... perhaps you should find another hobby.

-RC
Stack47

Kentucky
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February 14, 2006
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Sep 5, 2013, 5:16 pm

Quote: Originally posted by GiveFive on Sep 5, 2013
What you so very expertly described in your second paragraph is called "coverage" by lottery officials.

If 50% of all the possible 175 million combinations have been purchased ("covered"), then there's a 50% chance someone will win the jackpot. With most drawings, coverage is far less than 50%, that's why jackpots aren't won and grow.

There's an online game here in New York that The Lottery freely admits has a "coverage problem". Very rarely is a jackpot won. Although the odds of winning one million dollars are very good (it has the lowest odds to win one million dollars that I've ever seen anywhere) players dont particularly like the prize structure of the game, therefore they don't buy many tickets. Consequently coverage has run at about 10% of the 3.8 million possible combo's for almost all of the drawings. 10% cverage means 90% of the possible 3.8 million combo's are "uncovered" or not purchased.

There is another aspect of "coverage" I hadn't thought about until you mentioned coverage. The overall combination coverage determines the chances of winning, but how well each of the individual numbers are covered should make the chances better if the drawn numbers have a larger than average coverage. If the QP distribution is as random as the drawing, some numbers should appear more frequent on the QPs, similar to a past drawing statistics chart. The effect should be greater if the bonus number was on more tickets than average.

When the sales coverage is just about 50%, I don't think the number coverage would raise or lower that percentage very much, but it should have an effect on the secondary prize payoffs. When MM changes to 15 bonus numbers there should be spikes in the payoffs when widely played bonus numbers are drawn and they appear more than average on QPs.
dallascowboyfan

Oklahoma
United States
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November 12, 2009
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Sep 5, 2013, 9:28 pm

I think everyone plays to win the jackpot no matter how much it takes you had the NBA player that spent $10,000 and didn't win anything.

I Love Pink & Green 1908
JoshUK

London
United Kingdom
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March 24, 2013
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Sep 5, 2013, 9:32 pm

I'm too tight to spend too much, I quit playing 5 lines on the Euro and now only play 2. Also I don't gamble on anything else, no casino's or sports bets nothing just the Lottery and mostly the EuroMillons.

So the 4 GBP is a small price to pay to maybe win a life changing amount of money and I also enjoy playing.

£2.50 and a dream!

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