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Is Mega Millions paying ?? Or are the odds just too high?Prev TopicNext Topic
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There have been NO JACKPOT winners yet. I count 12 2nd place wins and 1 BONUS 2nd place win since the change of the game. While Powerball has had multiple jackpot winners, and 2 times as many 2nd place wins in the same amount of time.
So are the ODDS just too high? I kinda think they may be, I am wondering if we WILL see a jackpot winner? Or if it will just grow & grow with no winner...
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With five 5+0 winners the last drawing and only 15 possible megaballs, can there still be any doubt about there being a MM jackpot winner in the near future?
* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
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According to the Poisson cumulative probability distribution, if you include the non-winning draws before the matrix change there is about 84% chance of a winner in this draw or any of the previous ones. Really not that significant. Sales have not really increased after the change, and with odds of more than double the prior matrix likewise it will take longer before there is a winner.
Honestly, I don't understand the fanfare with the previous $205 million and current $230 million jackpots. Look how many rolls it took to get there, then compare it to the game's history. The last 3 times MM was $220 million (notice $10 M less than present) and rolled afterwards, it went to $265 M, $270 M, and $290 M. If it rolls tonight it isn't even going to $260 M! So the claim of "faster growing jackpots" is either bunk or just suffering from holiday shopping season. Or should only apply when it gets to astronomical sizes. If you think about it, the only way a jackpot can grow faster is with increased sales. The current minimum rollover amount was already happening before the change.
I won't be impressed by the change until MM elapses the previous MM record. Hopefully that happens
If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
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According to the Poisson cumulative probability distribution, if you include the non-winning draws before the matrix change there is about 84% chance of a winner in this draw or any of the previous ones. Really not that significant. Sales have not really increased after the change, and with odds of more than double the prior matrix likewise it will take longer before there is a winner.
Honestly, I don't understand the fanfare with the previous $205 million and current $230 million jackpots. Look how many rolls it took to get there, then compare it to the game's history. The last 3 times MM was $220 million (notice $10 M less than present) and rolled afterwards, it went to $265 M, $270 M, and $290 M. If it rolls tonight it isn't even going to $260 M! So the claim of "faster growing jackpots" is either bunk or just suffering from holiday shopping season. Or should only apply when it gets to astronomical sizes. If you think about it, the only way a jackpot can grow faster is with increased sales. The current minimum rollover amount was already happening before the change.
I won't be impressed by the change until MM elapses the previous MM record. Hopefully that happens
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According to the Poisson cumulative probability distribution, if you include the non-winning draws before the matrix change there is about 84% chance of a winner in this draw or any of the previous ones. Really not that significant. Sales have not really increased after the change, and with odds of more than double the prior matrix likewise it will take longer before there is a winner.
Honestly, I don't understand the fanfare with the previous $205 million and current $230 million jackpots. Look how many rolls it took to get there, then compare it to the game's history. The last 3 times MM was $220 million (notice $10 M less than present) and rolled afterwards, it went to $265 M, $270 M, and $290 M. If it rolls tonight it isn't even going to $260 M! So the claim of "faster growing jackpots" is either bunk or just suffering from holiday shopping season. Or should only apply when it gets to astronomical sizes. If you think about it, the only way a jackpot can grow faster is with increased sales. The current minimum rollover amount was already happening before the change.
I won't be impressed by the change until MM elapses the previous MM record. Hopefully that happens
According to the Poisson cumulative probability distribution, if you include the non-winning draws before the matrix change there is about 84% chance of a winner in this draw or any of the previous ones.
Unless you've invented a time machine, there is 0% chance of a winner on previous draws!
The probability of having a winner for an upcoming draw is independent of past draws, and is based on projected sales. There is a probability of about 15% that there will be a winner on 12/3 based on projected sales of $43.3M.
Also, prior to 10/22 draw was the old MM matrix, a different game with different odds, so it does not make sense to include those draws. If you want to take a historical view and talk in terms of cumulative probability, there is a probability of about 74% that there would be a winner by 12/3 based on total accumulated sales of $345.8M since 10/22. Previous draws would have succeedingly less cumulative probability.
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According to the Poisson cumulative probability distribution, if you include the non-winning draws before the matrix change there is about 84% chance of a winner in this draw or any of the previous ones.
Unless you've invented a time machine, there is 0% chance of a winner on previous draws!
The probability of having a winner for an upcoming draw is independent of past draws, and is based on projected sales. There is a probability of about 15% that there will be a winner on 12/3 based on projected sales of $43.3M.
Also, prior to 10/22 draw was the old MM matrix, a different game with different odds, so it does not make sense to include those draws. If you want to take a historical view and talk in terms of cumulative probability, there is a probability of about 74% that there would be a winner by 12/3 based on total accumulated sales of $345.8M since 10/22. Previous draws would have succeedingly less cumulative probability.
If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
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If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
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WOW, could you imagine you WIN a BILLION dollar jackpot, BEFORE taxes...
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You can't predict random.
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