Could this apply to Pick 3 vs jackpot games?Prev Topic Next Topic

Coin Toss

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Dec 9, 2013, 5:39 pm

Interesting quote:

"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars:
I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over."

—Warren Buffett: American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
RJOh

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Dec 9, 2013, 8:11 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Dec 9, 2013
Interesting quote:

"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars:
I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over."

—Warren Buffett: American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist

No! If winning Pick 3 was as easy as stepping over a one-foot bar, it wouldn't exist. Lottery prizes are half of the sales amounts regardless if the top prize is $500 or $500M, someone wins $500 when 1000 chances are sold and someone wins $500M when one billion chances are sold.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
onlymoney

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Dec 9, 2013, 11:02 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Dec 9, 2013
No! If winning Pick 3 was as easy as stepping over a one-foot bar, it wouldn't exist. Lottery prizes are half of the sales amounts regardless if the top prize is $500 or $500M, someone wins $500 when 1000 chances are sold and someone wins $500M when one billion chances are sold.

But it's easier to jump over a one foot bar.

I'd rather figure out how to make the incremental work on a regular basis, than trying to reinvent the wheel by attempting to attain a miracle like a major JP win just once.
rdgrnr

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The Hall Of The Mountain Kings Tennessee
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Dec 9, 2013, 11:32 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Dec 9, 2013
Interesting quote:

"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars:
I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over."

—Warren Buffett: American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist

"I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over."

—Warren Buffett: American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist

"I look for four-foot bars with barstools in front of them."

--Ridge Runner: Oracle of The Appalachians, boozer and philanderer
rcbbuckeye

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Dec 9, 2013, 11:40 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Dec 9, 2013
Interesting quote:

"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars:
I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over."

—Warren Buffett: American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist

If I could figure out how to hit P3 straight at least once a month for a profit I might agree with his statement.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)
Coin Toss

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Dec 10, 2013, 12:19 am

RJOH,

Yeah, but I was thinking of some posters here on LP...... to hear some tell it .........

rdgrnr,

rcbuckeye,

Yup!

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
LottoBoner

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Dec 10, 2013, 1:07 am

Warren who?
LottoBoner

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Dec 10, 2013, 1:10 am

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Dec 9, 2013
No! If winning Pick 3 was as easy as stepping over a one-foot bar, it wouldn't exist. Lottery prizes are half of the sales amounts regardless if the top prize is $500 or $500M, someone wins $500 when 1000 chances are sold and someone wins $500M when one billion chances are sold.

Maybe it is as easy as stepping over a one foot bar.

The problem perhaps is just that people have two feet.

Thus they fall into the quandary of which foot to use first.

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Dec 10, 2013, 1:14 am

Quote: Originally posted by onlymoney on Dec 9, 2013

But it's easier to jump over a one foot bar.

I'd rather figure out how to make the incremental work on a regular basis, than trying to reinvent the wheel by attempting to attain a miracle like a major JP win just once.

Attaining a miracle by reinventing the wheel IS incremental work.

Although wth would you know.

onlymoney: Statistics Summary

Summary

Statistic	Current Month	Last Month	Current Year	Last Year	Lifetime
Picks	0	0	358	332	690
Hits	0	0	0	2	2
Hit Ratio	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.60%	0.29%
Winnings	$0	$0	$0	$80	$80
Prize Ratio	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	24.10%	11.59%

Although its nice to see you finally took the effort to step up to the plate and place a wager. You might want to work on that system though. I hear there is a traveler coming from alaska.

Lucky Loser

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Dec 10, 2013, 12:09 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Dec 9, 2013
Interesting quote:

"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars:
I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over."

—Warren Buffett: American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist

It absolutely does apply to Pick3 & Pick4 SPECIFICALLY...FIRST. Look, if a player can't even manage to match just (3) numbers out of (10) at least some of the time with SKILL, then how in the hell can they expect to STRATEGIZE on a (50+) number game and have to match all (6) for the cigar? These games are about PERMUTATIONS and matching the correct one's at the right time for a win...no? A person can put together enough combos in Pick3 and have killer chances of matching boxed very consistently...IF they'd hunker down and spend enough money the RIGHT WAY at the RIGHT TIME. With a little tweaking, a straight is almost inevitable. But, this can be accomplished on such SMALL games with LOW NUMBER COUNTS as we're only dealing with 0-9.

Man, when you start dealing with ANYTHING over around 20-30 numbers to choose (5) from, there's no real strategy that can be applied which will lend itself to helping the player close in on a calculated win. There's just too many numbers even after the all odd/all even combos and any very low probability combos are extracted. You've still got MILLIONS of combos which will only succomb to LUCK and LUCK only...with the amount of money that can be reasonably played within the average Joe's budget which is +- $10 per draw. Now, if we take a filthy rich person like Warren Buffet and show him where enough money can be spent to win within "X" amount of draws based on these combos due to these specific reasons, then he'd be able to do it. But, most rich folk just don't get into the lotteries, or, the specifics thereof in terms of mathematics because they've already got tons of money coming in elsewhere.

This may be hard to accept, but it's fair and it's the truth...not trying to rain on anyone's parade (hope). Trying to skillfully...intentionally match (5) numbers on a game with (50) numbers and have either never, or barely matched 1-2 numbers on a 0-9 game leaves me completely dumbfounded. The only difference is that the JP games have no str8 or boxed deal...just match all the numbers. However, it still boils down to permutations and the right numbers must all be on the same line and ATTACHED one to another...and it costs to do it.

Coin, this is a very good post and I've seen it before in my reading. Makes perfect sense and is why I stick to my 'itty-bitty' games where I win and have something to show for my efforts. To each their own with what they like, you know. But, one must be very careful with their balance of 'hope', 'expectation', 'capability', and 'reasoning' with this game.

L.L.

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

#lotto-4-a-living
RJOh

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Dec 10, 2013, 12:29 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Dec 10, 2013
RJOH,

Yeah, but I was thinking of some posters here on LP...... to hear some tell it .........

rdgrnr,

rcbuckeye,

Yup!

I was thinking players are fooled into thinking they can win more playing pick3 because of the better odds, but in fact all games only payout 50% of sales in prizes. The difference is a pick3 game has a bunch of small wins and a jackpot game usually has one big win.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
Lucky Loser

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Dec 10, 2013, 12:37 pm

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Dec 9, 2013
No! If winning Pick 3 was as easy as stepping over a one-foot bar, it wouldn't exist. Lottery prizes are half of the sales amounts regardless if the top prize is $500 or $500M, someone wins $500 when 1000 chances are sold and someone wins $500M when one billion chances are sold.

someone wins $500 when 1000 chances are sold and someone wins $500M when one billion chances are sold.

Actually, more people win on the 1000 deal than the one billion deal and it's much, much, much, much, much, much......easier to be (1) of the winners of the $500 than THE WINNER of $500M. Sure, more people lose on Pick3 than actually win and it isn't hard to understand why. If every single person in Texas spends only $5 on Pick3, do you know how much FREE MONEY that is in relevance to the few tickets that actually hit boxed and str8? The losses are inevitable and the agencies know that players aren't going to spend enough to really have a chance and this is what they base their lottery average income off of.

They can more than afford to pay to the lucky, willing, and skilled one's that win boxed and str8 due to all the losses of the unlucky, unskilled, and unwilling one's. If you feel that $10 isn't raising any worth while hell on the Pick3/Pick4 in terms of a real chance, then surely you must understand what you're up against with $10 on a JP game...right? This is nothing more than arithmetic and money to apply that arithmetic. You're just not going to increase the number count by (5X's) while sustaining the same chance of winning with the same amount of money. There must be a balance in terms of what can be spent, capability of winning, and expectation based on the math. I find it strange that people 'sneeze' at the small money that can be made, or, the recovery of monies on Pick3 when math/money is applied properly.

L.L.

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

#lotto-4-a-living
NightStalker

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Dec 10, 2013, 12:38 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Dec 9, 2013
Interesting quote:

"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars:
I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over."

—Warren Buffett: American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist

Even one-foot bars are a huge challenge when you are sitting on your a$$.

Life's Too Short To Be Unhappy
maringoman

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Dec 10, 2013, 5:25 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Dec 9, 2013
Interesting quote:

"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars:
I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over."

—Warren Buffett: American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist

If he's talking about looking for easiest challenges first then it makes sense. If you look at the number of winners in every pick 3 & 4 draw vs the number of winners in every jackpot game draw you can correctly conclude that pick 3 & 4 games are the "one-foot bars" in the analogy. In individual cases though it could be very different.

That money's gone fo ever
LottoBoner

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Dec 10, 2013, 5:41 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Dec 9, 2013
Interesting quote:

"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars:
I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over."

—Warren Buffett: American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist

I was curious as to where you found this quote and whether it is legit.

Is there a book, or a video?

My gecko is dying to know.

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Could this apply to Pick 3 vs jackpot games?Prev TopicNext Topic

Could this apply to Pick 3 vs jackpot games?Prev Topic Next Topic