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LottoMetro

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Dec 16, 2013, 9:37 pm

The cash jackpot record will not be broken Tuesday. Friday, maybe.

I actually don't think the current annuity record will be broken Tuesday either. I'm thinking it will rise to $600 million.

MM director is predicting 65-70% of combinations will be sold. She verified that they have NEVER sold every Mega Millions combination for any drawing. With the new matrix, they would have to sell well over a billion tickets to do so. She also said the annuity will most certainly be $1 billion or more if the game rolls to Christmas Eve. I agree with this assessment.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
Six balls

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Dec 16, 2013, 10:31 pm

I agree, Metro. At the current CV/JP ratio (which has been advertised at a consistent 53-54% since the annuity change), JP value would have to exceed $872 mil to break the $471 mil CV record. That's a far reach from where we're at.

In the event of a single ticket winner, Gloria's $370.9 mil record would be broken at $687 mil. Also a stretch, but a "Wee, record JP!" frenzy might pull it off.
Stack47

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Dec 16, 2013, 10:55 pm

Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Dec 16, 2013
The cash jackpot record will not be broken Tuesday. Friday, maybe.

I actually don't think the current annuity record will be broken Tuesday either. I'm thinking it will rise to $600 million.

MM director is predicting 65-70% of combinations will be sold. She verified that they have NEVER sold every Mega Millions combination for any drawing. With the new matrix, they would have to sell well over a billion tickets to do so. She also said the annuity will most certainly be $1 billion or more if the game rolls to Christmas Eve. I agree with this assessment.

"With the new matrix, they would have to sell well over a billion tickets to do so."

The probability is 1 five number match for every 17,259,390 tickets sold and a billion in sales should create 58 five number matches. Each five number match has a 1 in 15 chance of winning the jackpot and 518 million in sales creates 30 five number matches. The percentages favor at least one of those 30 combos matching the bonus number. It's possible 15 five number matches could each match a different bonus number and a quarter billion in sales could have a jackpot winner. There is no guarantee one of the 58 five number matches will the bonus number making $1 billion in sales not enough.

Based on sales during this run, the next run will grow even slower. Many regular players will purchase extra tickets for tomorrow's drawing and only 7% of them will win anything. To keep the regular players happy and continue playing, the MM people are hoping for at least 3 jackpot winners and a bunch of $1 plus winners too.
LottoMetro

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Dec 16, 2013, 11:24 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Dec 16, 2013
"With the new matrix, they would have to sell well over a billion tickets to do so."

The probability is 1 five number match for every 17,259,390 tickets sold and a billion in sales should create 58 five number matches. Each five number match has a 1 in 15 chance of winning the jackpot and 518 million in sales creates 30 five number matches. The percentages favor at least one of those 30 combos matching the bonus number. It's possible 15 five number matches could each match a different bonus number and a quarter billion in sales could have a jackpot winner. There is no guarantee one of the 58 five number matches will the bonus number making $1 billion in sales not enough.

Based on sales during this run, the next run will grow even slower. Many regular players will purchase extra tickets for tomorrow's drawing and only 7% of them will win anything. To keep the regular players happy and continue playing, the MM people are hoping for at least 3 jackpot winners and a bunch of $1 plus winners too.

Yes, it would take more than a billion to guarantee all combinations sold.....I stated "well over a billion" for simplicity sake. In fact to literally "guarantee" all combinations sold, it could take upwards of 8,769,827,519 tickets (assuming random selection and using 30 digit accuracy). Of course that is an extreme example; sales of 1 billion would have a ~98% chance of there being at least one winner, sales of 2 billion would have a 99.96% chance of there being at least one winner, and sales of 3 billion would have a 99.999% chance of there being at least one winner.

I am curious as to how players will react once we've topped a $1 billion jackpot, especially since they have pumped so much into lower jackpots. People can only spend so much, so the rate of jackpot growth will probably start to dimish (aka 'fatigue'). I wouldn't be surprised if eventually the lotteries instituted a casino-type progressive jackpot where values are updated in real-time. This would eliminate the need for projections and risk of overstated advertisements, while at the same time decreasing the delay between frenzy periods.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
bigbear29

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Dec 17, 2013, 1:33 am

I just don't get it! So, are we saying that repeat numbers sets are not given out with quicks picks? Are we going to have repeat number sets quick picks for this drawing? May-be it's just me that thinks this is not that simple. You have to use up all 259 million possibilities for someone to win????? If only four people played the lotto total, and one ticket won, what does that say? It's late, and I just don't get it.

Factors: Quick Picks and peoples own numbers mmmmmmmmm.......... let me check the lotto computer to see if half of the combinations have been used.
LottoMetro

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Dec 17, 2013, 11:11 am

Quote: Originally posted by bigbear29 on Dec 17, 2013
I just don't get it! So, are we saying that repeat numbers sets are not given out with quicks picks? Are we going to have repeat number sets quick picks for this drawing? May-be it's just me that thinks this is not that simple. You have to use up all 259 million possibilities for someone to win????? If only four people played the lotto total, and one ticket won, what does that say? It's late, and I just don't get it.

Factors: Quick Picks and peoples own numbers mmmmmmmmm.......... let me check the lotto computer to see if half of the combinations have been used.

Except in "limited liability" lotteries, there is no limit on the number of duplicate/repeat number sets. In the case of Mega Millions, if they sell 200 million tickets, approximately 60-61 million of those will be duplicates. This assumes random selection but it is inclusive of both quick picks and personal picks. Duplicate number sets are the reason why the chance of multiple winners goes up as sales increase.

To guarantee a winner, yes technically you would need to sell all combinations. However, in most cases it takes far fewer combinations until there is a winner. Less than 50% of MM combinations were sold last drawing, so there was less than 50% chance of a winner. This is referred to as "coverage," which is not the same thing as sales by the way. Tonight's drawing is expected to have 65-70% chance of a winner. Needless to say I have seen drawings won before with only 20% of combinations sold.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
KY Floyd

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Dec 17, 2013, 12:46 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Dec 16, 2013
"With the new matrix, they would have to sell well over a billion tickets to do so."

The probability is 1 five number match for every 17,259,390 tickets sold and a billion in sales should create 58 five number matches. Each five number match has a 1 in 15 chance of winning the jackpot and 518 million in sales creates 30 five number matches. The percentages favor at least one of those 30 combos matching the bonus number. It's possible 15 five number matches could each match a different bonus number and a quarter billion in sales could have a jackpot winner. There is no guarantee one of the 58 five number matches will the bonus number making $1 billion in sales not enough.

Based on sales during this run, the next run will grow even slower. Many regular players will purchase extra tickets for tomorrow's drawing and only 7% of them will win anything. To keep the regular players happy and continue playing, the MM people are hoping for at least 3 jackpot winners and a bunch of $1 plus winners too.

Were you trying to make a point that's related to the part you quoted?

"The percentages favor at least one of those 30 combos matching the bonus number."

The percentages favor a jackpot winner as soon as they sell 50.00001% of the combinations, but if they sell 258,890,800 combinations we could still see a rollover even if 250 people match 5+0.
Stack47

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Dec 17, 2013, 2:18 pm

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Dec 17, 2013
Were you trying to make a point that's related to the part you quoted?

"The percentages favor at least one of those 30 combos matching the bonus number."

The percentages favor a jackpot winner as soon as they sell 50.00001% of the combinations, but if they sell 258,890,800 combinations we could still see a rollover even if 250 people match 5+0.

Nope and I wasn't arguing how much in ticket sales it would take for every combination to be sold either. I know you like to feel better about yourself by making things complicated, but they will draw one bonus number and whether or not there is a jackpot winner depends on if that number is on a 5 + 0 match. For all we know the winning jackpot ticket was sold on Saturday morning.

"but if they sell 258,890,800 combinations we could still see a rollover even if 250 people match 5+0."

It doens't matter how many tickets they sell because 93% will match nothing. Mathematically there should be one 5 +0 match for every 17,259,390 tickets sold. There was a 64% chance of a jackpot winner in the last drawing when 11 million tickets matched the bonus number. It looks like ticket sales will be at least three times more so it's highly likely 33 million tickets will match the bonus number. That doesn't guarantee a jackpot winner, but it's highly probable and only 10% of the 4.3 billion in sales you said was necessary.
KY Floyd

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Dec 17, 2013, 5:57 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Dec 17, 2013
Nope and I wasn't arguing how much in ticket sales it would take for every combination to be sold either. I know you like to feel better about yourself by making things complicated, but they will draw one bonus number and whether or not there is a jackpot winner depends on if that number is on a 5 + 0 match. For all we know the winning jackpot ticket was sold on Saturday morning.

"but if they sell 258,890,800 combinations we could still see a rollover even if 250 people match 5+0."

It doens't matter how many tickets they sell because 93% will match nothing. Mathematically there should be one 5 +0 match for every 17,259,390 tickets sold. There was a 64% chance of a jackpot winner in the last drawing when 11 million tickets matched the bonus number. It looks like ticket sales will be at least three times more so it's highly likely 33 million tickets will match the bonus number. That doesn't guarantee a jackpot winner, but it's highly probable and only 10% of the 4.3 billion in sales you said was necessary.

I know you like to feel better about yourself by thinking you've got a grasp of reality, but you're the one who's making it complicated.

It's actually very simple. As a simple matter of probability, selling every combination only becoems very likely when sales are several times the number of possible combination.

What else is very simple, though a completely separate matter, is that the chance of a winner is a function of probability, and correlates directly with the percentage of combinations that are sold. What actualy happens may closely approximate probability, or it could be something extremely unlikely, but it's still very simple.
helpmewin

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Dec 17, 2013, 6:46 pm

Quote: Originally posted by haymaker on Dec 16, 2013
Impossible to win tonight, maybe you have a time machine ?

why?
haymaker

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Dec 17, 2013, 7:52 pm

Quote: Originally posted by helpmewin on Dec 17, 2013
why?

B/C he posted that yesterday, the draw is tonight.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds -- Charles Mackay LL.D.
Stack47

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Dec 17, 2013, 9:23 pm

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Dec 17, 2013
I know you like to feel better about yourself by thinking you've got a grasp of reality, but you're the one who's making it complicated.

It's actually very simple. As a simple matter of probability, selling every combination only becoems very likely when sales are several times the number of possible combination.

What else is very simple, though a completely separate matter, is that the chance of a winner is a function of probability, and correlates directly with the percentage of combinations that are sold. What actualy happens may closely approximate probability, or it could be something extremely unlikely, but it's still very simple.

They are talking about being very close to record breaking sales (650 million tickets) and simply divide that by 17,259,390. Hopefully you'll get 38 five number matches. If you didn't miss the memo saying there are now just 15 bonus numbers, divide 650 million by 15. That 43.3 million five number combos for every bonus number. Based on the sales figures, there should be at least two jackpot winners.

The 12/13 sales were 167 million, divide it by 17,259,390, and let me know how close your answer is to the 9 tickets that matched 5 numbers.

"As a simple matter of probability, selling every combination only becoems very likely when sales are several times the number of possible combination."

Keeping it simple, the number 258,890,850 (the total possibilities) is irrelevant. When are you going to tell the LP members you haven't a clue how many ticket sales it would take to cover all those outcomes and why it's not necessary?

"and correlates directly with the percentage of combinations that are sold."

It's the number of five number matches sold and I gave you a simple formula to find it. Nine wasn't enough on Friday, but 38 should be.
Hamp101

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Dec 17, 2013, 10:11 pm

still has time to close the gap,! When is the cut off for the latest you can buy a ticket ? Saw on the National News Lines were Out the door .

Just 1 person was in line in front of me today where I went to get my 20 lines 4 ticket wager, Meeting street, downtown, Charleston SC .

I went after 8:pm lol
mrcraft

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Dec 17, 2013, 10:18 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Hamp101 on Dec 17, 2013
still has time to close the gap,! When is the cut off for the latest you can buy a ticket ? Saw on the National News Lines were Out the door .

Just 1 person was in line in front of me today where I went to get my 20 lines 4 ticket wager, Meeting street, downtown, Charleston SC .

I went after 8:pm lol

In California, the cut-off is 7:45 local time, 15 minutes prior to the draw.
Hamp101

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Dec 17, 2013, 10:19 pm

I don,t think over 5 people will get 5+0 numbers tonight just saying LOL