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Crazy Wombat

United States
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December 3, 2014
328 Posts
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Jun 13, 2015, 5:34 am

I stumbled across a site dealing with actual odds of winning a lottery game. Since I am attracted to a 6/49 game with the "better odds" ... I found this depressing question dealing with a 6/49 game ... I can only imagine the answer for the PB and MM.

"I have been playing lotteries and sweepstakes now for two months straight. Will I ever hit a jackpot? And when?

The short answer is no, you will never win. The odds of winning the usual 6/49 lottery are 1 in 13,983,816. You would have to play the game 9,692,842 times to have a 50/50 chance of winning at least once. Assuming you bought 100 lottery tickets a day, it would take 265.6 years to have a 50% chance of winning. To have a 90% chance of winning, it would take 882.2 years."

I guess I will go back to one or two tickets and hope for Lady Luck to show up one day ... last week I bought 20 tickets ($40) for the Monday drawing and won nothing and just this past Thursday I bought 5 tickets ($10) and won nothing.

I don't know for sure if the figures for winning a jackpot in a 6/49 game are accurate ... but they seem about right to me ... as I said earlier, for the PB and MM ... how many years would that take?

So from now on when I go into a store and face down a Lottery Terminal ... holding my money in my hand ... I will think of the immortal words of Inspector Callahan, otherwards known as Dirty Harry ...

"Do you feel lucky? ... well do ya punk ???"

...
hearsetrax

United States
Member #52,343
May 21, 2007
3,796 Posts
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Jun 13, 2015, 5:55 am

Quote: Originally posted by Crazy Wombat on Jun 13, 2015
I stumbled across a site dealing with actual odds of winning a lottery game. Since I am attracted to a 6/49 game with the "better odds" ... I found this depressing question dealing with a 6/49 game ... I can only imagine the answer for the PB and MM.

"I have been playing lotteries and sweepstakes now for two months straight. Will I ever hit a jackpot? And when?

The short answer is no, you will never win. The odds of winning the usual 6/49 lottery are 1 in 13,983,816. You would have to play the game 9,692,842 times to have a 50/50 chance of winning at least once. Assuming you bought 100 lottery tickets a day, it would take 265.6 years to have a 50% chance of winning. To have a 90% chance of winning, it would take 882.2 years."

I guess I will go back to one or two tickets and hope for Lady Luck to show up one day ... last week I bought 20 tickets ($40) for the Monday drawing and won nothing and just this past Thursday I bought 5 tickets ($10) and won nothing.

I don't know for sure if the figures for winning a jackpot in a 6/49 game are accurate ... but they seem about right to me ... as I said earlier, for the PB and MM ... how many years would that take?

So from now on when I go into a store and face down a Lottery Terminal ... holding my money in my hand ... I will think of the immortal words of Inspector Callahan, otherwards known as Dirty Harry ...

"Do you feel lucky? ... well do ya punk ???"

...
CDanaT

Central TN
United States
Member #121,187
January 4, 2012
7,769 Posts
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Jun 13, 2015, 8:33 am

Quote: Originally posted by Crazy Wombat on Jun 13, 2015
I stumbled across a site dealing with actual odds of winning a lottery game. Since I am attracted to a 6/49 game with the "better odds" ... I found this depressing question dealing with a 6/49 game ... I can only imagine the answer for the PB and MM.

"I have been playing lotteries and sweepstakes now for two months straight. Will I ever hit a jackpot? And when?

The short answer is no, you will never win. The odds of winning the usual 6/49 lottery are 1 in 13,983,816. You would have to play the game 9,692,842 times to have a 50/50 chance of winning at least once. Assuming you bought 100 lottery tickets a day, it would take 265.6 years to have a 50% chance of winning. To have a 90% chance of winning, it would take 882.2 years."

I guess I will go back to one or two tickets and hope for Lady Luck to show up one day ... last week I bought 20 tickets ($40) for the Monday drawing and won nothing and just this past Thursday I bought 5 tickets ($10) and won nothing.

I don't know for sure if the figures for winning a jackpot in a 6/49 game are accurate ... but they seem about right to me ... as I said earlier, for the PB and MM ... how many years would that take?

So from now on when I go into a store and face down a Lottery Terminal ... holding my money in my hand ... I will think of the immortal words of Inspector Callahan, otherwards known as Dirty Harry ...

"Do you feel lucky? ... well do ya punk ???"

...

When it comes to possessing the winning numbers on a single ticket, I will reply with other famous Dirty Harry Callahan
"Go ahead,,,,, Make my day" !!!!!

Si vis pacem, para bellum.
Crazy Wombat

United States
Member #161,532
December 3, 2014
328 Posts
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Jun 13, 2015, 10:18 am

Quote: Originally posted by CDanaT on Jun 13, 2015
When it comes to possessing the winning numbers on a single ticket, I will reply with other famous Dirty Harry Callahan
"Go ahead,,,,, Make my day" !!!!!

Yeah ... that's good ... forgot that one!

I am thinking that the Lottery Terminal with the flashing lights is actually laughing at me ... calling me a punk loser ... but I can throw that right back at it ... "Go ahead,,,,, Make my day" !!!

...
Coin Toss

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
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January 17, 2006
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Jun 13, 2015, 11:01 am

There's a thread or a post here on LP that was about some study that said your numbers will come up but it might take 483 years.
Another said over 1100 years.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
Crazy Wombat

United States
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December 3, 2014
328 Posts
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Jun 13, 2015, 11:16 am

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Jun 13, 2015
There's a thread or a post here on LP that was about some study that said your numbers will come up but it might take 483 years.
Another said over 1100 years.

CT ... Of course I can only speak for myself ... but I can't wait that long !

Others may have a different view or time frame.

...
noise-gate

* In hot pursuit of $ *

White Shores- California
United States
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December 12, 2012
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Jun 13, 2015, 11:56 am

From time to time l will look at a map of the Continental US and know that somewhere out there, is one convenience store or other, that will be selling the winning ticket and that for me is a sobering thought. Armed with that image, l know going in that when l give my playslip to the store clerk- l have as much of a chance of pulling it off as anyone else. Reality must kick in before putting down your money..at least it does for me.

** As Yoda once said to Luke Skywalker " Remember the Cave." For me it"s " Remember the Map."

* Voice of Reason *

* People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it- George Bernard Shaw.
zephbe

South Carolina
United States
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July 15, 2009
950 Posts
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Jun 13, 2015, 1:46 pm

Some people have played for 6 months -some played for years before they finally won. They just did not give up. That encourages me to keep tickets in for the game(s) I want to win. Persistence.
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
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March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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Jun 13, 2015, 7:44 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Crazy Wombat on Jun 13, 2015
CT ... Of course I can only speak for myself ... but I can't wait that long !

Others may have a different view or time frame.

...

Nobody can wait that long but what other choice do you have?

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
bthom04

Presque Isle, ME
United States
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November 17, 2013
25 Posts
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Jun 13, 2015, 8:23 pm

People beat the odds all the time it's just a matter of persistence and patience!
LottoMetro

Happyland
United States
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September 1, 2013
1,176 Posts
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Jun 13, 2015, 8:38 pm
100 tickets per day.......

50% chance of win:
- MM ≈ 4916 years
- PB ≈ 3327 years
90% chance of win:
- MM ≈ 16332 years
- PB ≈ 11054 years
Important to point out that this and the OP calculation assumes all tickets are randomly generated each time (i.e. no deterministic unique selections). Because of this, in order to meet the 90% confidence interval in MM you would have to buy nearly 600 million tickets. In reality, anybody buying a sum of tickets greater than the casual player would not be using quick picks due to the advantage that dependent selection has for lowering variance.
If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
Crazy Wombat

United States
Member #161,532
December 3, 2014
328 Posts
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Jun 14, 2015, 3:54 am
Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Jun 13, 2015
100 tickets per day.......

50% chance of win:
- MM ≈ 4916 years
- PB ≈ 3327 years
90% chance of win:
- MM ≈ 16332 years
- PB ≈ 11054 years
Important to point out that this and the OP calculation assumes all tickets are randomly generated each time (i.e. no deterministic unique selections). Because of this, in order to meet the 90% confidence interval in MM you would have to buy nearly 600 million tickets. In reality, anybody buying a sum of tickets greater than the casual player would not be using quick picks due to the advantage that dependent selection has for lowering variance.
Thanks LM for the additional information ... that's what was missing from this conversation.

Now we can all plan accordingly for future plays ... I'm sure it will only be a "matter of time" till some LP member lands a jackpot.

To get serious ... maybe odds don't register or relate to the average person but changing the "odds" to "years" and we can all understand that.

I play the 6/49 game type for the better odds over MM and PB ... so in my head I think I have a shot at some decent money with that strategy ... but change the "odds" to "years" and it starts to sink in better.

Of course there is still Lady Luck and some people play a few times or a few years and get rewarded.

It was just one year ago yesterday (Fri June 13, 2014) that the 24 year woman from MI won the MM jackpot ... started playing at 19 buying five tickets every MM drawing and won 66 million at age 24 on Friday the 13th.

----------

24-Year-Old Single Michigan Mom Wins $66 Million Lottery

STERLING HEIGHTS, Mich. (AP) -- The Michigan Lottery says a Port Huron woman is the winner of a $66 million Mega Millions jackpot that was drawn in mid-June.

Kelsey Zachow says in a statement that she "could barely breathe" when she learned she was the winner.

The 24-year-old is getting her jackpot as a one-time lump sum cash payment of nearly $38 million and will take home nearly $27 million after taxes.

The ticket for the June 13 drawing of the multistate lottery game was sold at Sonny Tarhini's Mount Clemens gas station and store. The lottery says Zachow bought five Mega Millions plays that day and her fifth set of numbers, an easy pick, was the winner.

----------

So a few people here and there will be lucky but for most players it's just not going to happen.

Just to add ... I did play the 6/49 game game in PA along with the MM and PB this past week ... I guess I still figured I could beat the odds ... next week maybe not ... possibly just the 6/49 game.

...
RJOh

100

mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
Offline

Jun 14, 2015, 8:04 am

Quote: Originally posted by Crazy Wombat on Jun 14, 2015
Thanks LM for the additional information ... that's what was missing from this conversation.

Now we can all plan accordingly for future plays ... I'm sure it will only be a "matter of time" till some LP member lands a jackpot.

To get serious ... maybe odds don't register or relate to the average person but changing the "odds" to "years" and we can all understand that.

I play the 6/49 game type for the better odds over MM and PB ... so in my head I think I have a shot at some decent money with that strategy ... but change the "odds" to "years" and it starts to sink in better.

Of course there is still Lady Luck and some people play a few times or a few years and get rewarded.

It was just one year ago yesterday (Fri June 13, 2014) that the 24 year woman from MI won the MM jackpot ... started playing at 19 buying five tickets every MM drawing and won 66 million at age 24 on Friday the 13th.

----------

24-Year-Old Single Michigan Mom Wins $66 Million Lottery

STERLING HEIGHTS, Mich. (AP) -- The Michigan Lottery says a Port Huron woman is the winner of a $66 million Mega Millions jackpot that was drawn in mid-June.

Kelsey Zachow says in a statement that she "could barely breathe" when she learned she was the winner.

The 24-year-old is getting her jackpot as a one-time lump sum cash payment of nearly $38 million and will take home nearly $27 million after taxes.

The ticket for the June 13 drawing of the multistate lottery game was sold at Sonny Tarhini's Mount Clemens gas station and store. The lottery says Zachow bought five Mega Millions plays that day and her fifth set of numbers, an easy pick, was the winner.

----------

So a few people here and there will be lucky but for most players it's just not going to happen.

Just to add ... I did play the 6/49 game game in PA along with the MM and PB this past week ... I guess I still figured I could beat the odds ... next week maybe not ... possibly just the 6/49 game.

...

I play the 6/49 game type for the better odds over MM and PB ... so in my head I think I have a shot at some decent money with that strategy ... but change the "odds" to "years" and it starts to sink in better.

The odds of winning a jackpot in a 6/49 game has always been 1:13,983,816 which have always meant players could buy tickets over several life times and never win a jackpot. Such games going months and some times a year without a winner just drives that point home. Any one thinking their turn to win is just around the corner is just dreaming but playing the lotteries is about dreaming.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
zephbe

South Carolina
United States
Member #77,165
July 15, 2009
950 Posts
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Jun 14, 2015, 8:17 am

Quote: Originally posted by bthom04 on Jun 13, 2015
People beat the odds all the time it's just a matter of persistence and patience!

just keep playing
Crazy Wombat

United States
Member #161,532
December 3, 2014
328 Posts
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Jun 14, 2015, 8:46 am

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Jun 14, 2015
I play the 6/49 game type for the better odds over MM and PB ... so in my head I think I have a shot at some decent money with that strategy ... but change the "odds" to "years" and it starts to sink in better.

The odds of winning a jackpot in a 6/49 game has always been 1:13,983,816 which have always meant players could buy tickets over several life times and never win a jackpot. Such games going months and some times a year without a winner just drives that point home. Any one thinking their turn to win is just around the corner is just dreaming but playing the lotteries is about dreaming.

Hi RJOH ... I hope you and others are not taking these posts too serious ... "odds are odds" and 'years are years" and if ever the two should meet, it still means most people will die broke in "lottery terms".

There will be a few "lucky ducks" ... there always are, but most will be lucky to win only some "chump change" in their lifetime !!!

Now as to the 6/49 game ... what you say is true, except for PA ... the PA 6/49 game is the easiest 6/49 game to hit of all the various 6/49 games. There's possibly a reason for that, I'll go into detail later.

I've watched this change over the last three years ... three years ago the average jackpot was around $4 million + before being hit ... then it dropped to $2 million before being hit ... since late 2014 and all of 2015 so far ... the jackpot hardly gets above $1 million, it does so only occasionally. It's averaging a hit every 1 to 1 1/2 months.

There hasn't been a $2 million jackpot since sometime in 2014 ... maybe it's been since 2013.

My theories only ... more people dropping MM and PB for a game with lower odds ... who can say and also 6/49 tickets cost $2 but a player get three chances to win the jackpot, so there is more coverage.

It's all very interesting ... the Lottery Gods have their fun with us poor lottery mortals !

...

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