The Real Reason Why The Powerball Lottery Game Jackpot Will Be Impossible To Win At Odds Of 1:292MPrev Topic Next Topic

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THRIFTY

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Sep 14, 2015, 3:53 pm

It took 2.5 years for Ohio Classic Lotto jackpot to be won while the lottery sat on the money earning interest. The lottery has realized that longer jackpot rollovers means less probability of being short to fund the jackpots and more interest earned on the money.https://www.lotterypost.com/news/276971

Mega Millions and Powerball are hoping to do the same by changing the games matrices to impossible odds of winning the jackpot, thereof creating longer jackpot rollovers.

How does this benefit the lottery players? Correct me if I am wrong.
psykomo

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Sep 14, 2015, 4:36 pm

"T"

"It Just Don't Git No Better"
Ron5995

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Sep 14, 2015, 4:53 pm

Not sure the lottery would earn much on interest. Rates on safe investments are very low. And funds held as cash may earn little to zero, or even below zero interest (some banks charge fees for those with very large balances). Also, unlike Ohio Lotto, which rolled for years, a PB jackpot is unlikely to rollover for more than a few months. In short, interest is peanuts compared to simply selling more tickets at near 50% markup on a large jackpot.

As for impossibility, the Mega Millions jackpot odds are 1 in ~259 million, and it's still been getting hit relatively often. Struggles to get over $200 million. So 1 in ~292 million, presumably, won't be near tough enough. For anything approaching "impossibility" based on current level of sales, 1 in a few billion odds is what it would take. Or to put it another way, the percentage of combinations sold would need to be well under 1% for each draw...

However, with random events, there are no guarantees that would be sufficient, as the Monopoly Millionaires' Club (MMC) well illustrated - it had an early top prize winner despite relatively low percentage of combinations sold.

The big flaw in the MM, and soon to come, PB jackpot odds changes is it reduces play. So while the odds of hitting a jackpot in any drawing is worse, odds of the jackpot getting hit is also a function of the number of draws. Every draw, regardless of how few tickets (other than zero) sold, is a chance of the jackpot being hit. This is what doomed MMC - too little play per drawing. The ideal situation is a lot of play combined with difficult odds. Both MM and PB (by doubling the price) have upset that balance, leading to reduced sales and less super-sized large jackpots than in the past.

Excess greed is leading to the slow demise of both MM and PB. If the situation doesn't improve within a few years, and sales continue to stagnate / lack of super-sized jackpots, it's highly likely both could be combined into one game drawn twice per week. There simply may not be enough player interest to support two national jackpot games.
THRIFTY

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Sep 14, 2015, 5:16 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Ron5995 on Sep 14, 2015
Not sure the lottery would earn much on interest. Rates on safe investments are very low. And funds held as cash may earn little to zero, or even below zero interest (some banks charge fees for those with very large balances). Also, unlike Ohio Lotto, which rolled for years, a PB jackpot is unlikely to rollover for more than a few months. In short, interest is peanuts compared to simply selling more tickets at near 50% markup on a large jackpot.

As for impossibility, the Mega Millions jackpot odds are 1 in ~259 million, and it's still been getting hit relatively often. Struggles to get over $200 million. So 1 in ~292 million, presumably, won't be near tough enough. For anything approaching "impossibility" based on current level of sales, 1 in a few billion odds is what it would take. Or to put it another way, the percentage of combinations sold would need to be well under 1% for each draw...

However, with random events, there are no guarantees that would be sufficient, as the Monopoly Millionaires' Club (MMC) well illustrated - it had an early top prize winner despite relatively low percentage of combinations sold.

The big flaw in the MM, and soon to come, PB jackpot odds changes is it reduces play. So while the odds of hitting a jackpot in any drawing is worse, odds of the jackpot getting hit is also a function of the number of draws. Every draw, regardless of how few tickets (other than zero) sold, is a chance of the jackpot being hit. This is what doomed MMC - too little play per drawing. The ideal situation is a lot of play combined with difficult odds. Both MM and PB (by doubling the price) have upset that balance, leading to reduced sales and less super-sized large jackpots than in the past.

Excess greed is leading to the slow demise of both MM and PB. If the situation doesn't improve within a few years, and sales continue to stagnate / lack of super-sized jackpots, it's highly likely both could be combined into one game drawn twice per week. There simply may not be enough player interest to support two national jackpot games.

The lottery will be charging $5, $10, $20 or more for lottery drawn games tickets to keep up with inflation.

I do not see lottery players playing lottery drawn games with odds of 1:1 Billion.

Lottery players do not mind playing $5, $10, $20, $30 and $50 Instant Scratch-Off Games.
bigbear29

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Sep 14, 2015, 6:06 pm

Ron5995, I believe the same as far as Pb and MM. So, do you think that when they combine pb and mm, that they will reduce the price per ticket in the beginning to pull more people in, say the first two years in combine pb/mm play?
psykomo

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Sep 14, 2015, 6:08 pm

Quote: Originally posted by THRIFTY on Sep 14, 2015
The lottery will be charging $5, $10, $20 or more for lottery drawn games tickets to keep up with inflation.

I do not see lottery players playing lottery drawn games with odds of 1:1 Billion.

Lottery players do not mind playing $5, $10, $20, $30 and $50 Instant Scratch-Off Games.

T

(1) The lottery will only charge those prices if we hit HYPER INFLATION (which may B sooner?)

(2) Agree w/U (but, a bunch of FOOL's may rush-N)

(3) Because they believe odds good & payout meets their expections (some are desperate 4$)
Stack47

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Sep 14, 2015, 6:49 pm

Quote: Originally posted by THRIFTY on Sep 14, 2015
It took 2.5 years for Ohio Classic Lotto jackpot to be won while the lottery sat on the money earning interest. The lottery has realized that longer jackpot rollovers means less probability of being short to fund the jackpots and more interest earned on the money.https://www.lotterypost.com/news/276971

Mega Millions and Powerball are hoping to do the same by changing the games matrices to impossible odds of winning the jackpot, thereof creating longer jackpot rollovers.

How does this benefit the lottery players? Correct me if I am wrong.

Benefiting the players depends what they realistically believe their chances of winning are and what prize they should expect. With PB, it's 1:12,245 to win $100 and MM is 1:10,720 to win $50. If those players understand their chances of winning the larger prizes are much less realistic, they could play games with similar odds with much higher prize payouts like pick-4. If they still want the unrealistic chance of winning the jackpot, using the powerplay and megaplier options will raise the prize while the odds against remain the same. Two PB tickets with the same combo cost $4 and at best we can only double the prize while spending $3 for powerplay guarantees at least doubling your money.

How many tickets should we buy to expect a realistic chance of winning the jackpot in either game?
THRIFTY

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Sep 14, 2015, 7:13 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Sep 14, 2015
Benefiting the players depends what they realistically believe their chances of winning are and what prize they should expect. With PB, it's 1:12,245 to win $100 and MM is 1:10,720 to win $50. If those players understand their chances of winning the larger prizes are much less realistic, they could play games with similar odds with much higher prize payouts like pick-4. If they still want the unrealistic chance of winning the jackpot, using the powerplay and megaplier options will raise the prize while the odds against remain the same. Two PB tickets with the same combo cost $4 and at best we can only double the prize while spending $3 for powerplay guarantees at least doubling your money.

How many tickets should we buy to expect a realistic chance of winning the jackpot in either game?

Mega Millions Odds Of Winning The Jackpot Are 1:258,890,850?

Powerball Odds Of Winning The Jackpot Are 1:175,223,510 Changing To 1:292 Million On October 2015. Size of the USA population is 300 Million?
yellowpig

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Sep 14, 2015, 7:29 pm

well after these changes they should leave it as is because if they make it any more harder then they will kill the game - meanwhile NY lotto in an ohio classic lotto type situation - 10 months and counting of rollover and coverage is averaging just over 4% at a 38m jackpot
weshar75

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Sep 14, 2015, 7:45 pm

My biggest hit from mega millions this year is $25 big ones and powerball is $35 big ones but on my state lotto megabucks I hit four numbers for $193.20 in august. So what should I play the rest of this year for october, november and december mega millions or powerball or megabucks. Decisions decisions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!-weshar75
RJOh

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Sep 14, 2015, 8:20 pm

Quote: Originally posted by THRIFTY on Sep 14, 2015
Mega Millions Odds Of Winning The Jackpot Are 1:258,890,850?

Powerball Odds Of Winning The Jackpot Are 1:175,223,510 Changing To 1:292 Million On October 2015. Size of the USA population is 300 Million?

I hadn't been buying any PB tickets because of their $2 price tag but with its odds going up in October and MM just having been hit, sounds like if I'm going to ever buy any again now is the time before the matrix change.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
maximumfun

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Sep 15, 2015, 4:18 am

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Sep 14, 2015
I hadn't been buying any PB tickets because of their $2 price tag but with its odds going up in October and MM just having been hit, sounds like if I'm going to ever buy any again now is the time before the matrix change.

**celebrating your win in advance**
RJOh

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Sep 15, 2015, 11:15 am

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Sep 14, 2015
Benefiting the players depends what they realistically believe their chances of winning are and what prize they should expect. With PB, it's 1:12,245 to win $100 and MM is 1:10,720 to win $50. If those players understand their chances of winning the larger prizes are much less realistic, they could play games with similar odds with much higher prize payouts like pick-4. If they still want the unrealistic chance of winning the jackpot, using the powerplay and megaplier options will raise the prize while the odds against remain the same. Two PB tickets with the same combo cost $4 and at best we can only double the prize while spending $3 for powerplay guarantees at least doubling your money.

How many tickets should we buy to expect a realistic chance of winning the jackpot in either game?

"How many tickets should we buy to expect a realistic chance of winning the jackpot in either game?"

That's an interesting question and it's probably not 259M for MM or 175M for PB but still more than a single person or group could afford. Maybe a better question would be "How many tickets should we buy to expect a realistic chance of winning the second prizes of a million dollars in either game?", that might an amount a small group of investors could afford.

Having said that the next question would be "How does one go about eliminating some of the 240M MM or 179M PB combinations that win nothing each drawing. Knowing the answer to that question would be helpful even if you only brought 5-10 tickets per drawing.

* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
psykomo

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Sep 15, 2015, 11:19 am

Quote: Originally posted by maximumfun on Sep 15, 2015
**celebrating your win in advance**

MF:

$185 Million PowerBall jackpot 9-16-15 waiting for "you"$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

TOMORROW is only a DAY AWAY!
rcbbuckeye

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Sep 15, 2015, 11:37 am

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on Sep 15, 2015
"How many tickets should we buy to expect a realistic chance of winning the jackpot in either game?"

That's an interesting question and it's probably not 259M for MM or 175M for PB but still more than a single person or group could afford. Maybe a better question would be "How many tickets should we buy to expect a realistic chance of winning the second prizes of a million dollars in either game?", that might an amount a small group of investors could afford.

Having said that the next question would be "How does one go about eliminating some of the 240M MM or 179M PB combinations that win nothing each drawing. Knowing the answer to that question would be helpful even if you only brought 5-10 tickets per drawing.

Just eliminating numbers 70-75 from your play in MM reduces the combinations from 258,890,850 to 168,577,695, wiping 90,313,155 combinations off the table.

Of course, if a number in the 70's is drawn, well, better luck next time.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)