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June 27, 2015
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Quote: Originally posted by RL-RANDOMLOGIC on Nov 27, 2015
AllenB
If you find something that works let me know. When working with random data it's always possible to come
to a solution that looks more probable than the others. The most probable will hit more often overall but this
does not tell us when. The problem is further compounded when working with more than one string.
In the above example " (0 45 2%) (1 299 11%) (2 792 29%) (3 1035 38%) (4 530 20%)." If we add the totals
of 2 and 4 we get 49%, so the two combined are greater than 3=38%. This is how random works. What we
need to know is, "When?" If we play the most probable then we will hit more often but don't expect it to hit on
que. The three top values would do very well game to game but then we are faced with too many lines to play.
My solution to this problem was to create a gauntlet of filters setting each one so that it covered the top 2 or 3
best values. Again this suffers the same effect if too many filters are required to reach a play budget.
Keep in mind that 0,1,2 and 4 will show in 62% of the draws and 3 is only expected to show 3.8 out of 10 on average.
0 and 1 can be eliminated as both added together equal 13% or around 1.3 out of 10 games on average. These 2 are
small enough to exclude without any real loss but lets say that you have to make a selection from 5 strings. The 13%*5
then becomes relevant in at least one of the 5 strings, which one, I don't have a clue. Sufficiently random is not random
but as it's name implies it's close enough to derail our best efforts much of the time.
Momentum seems to do well in prediction and one thing I have found is that a value, be it a filter, number, digit etc..
The #1 best time to play a value is right after it's self. A skip of zero shows more that any other skip.
RL
Sorry for the delay in responding. Being "Grampy" to 3 beautiful little girls is just more important.
I am updating the sequence together with it's "cousins" to try to go a little further down Prediction Road.
The sequence posted so far was derived as follows:
The basic concept was to separate the numbers into 2 groups and track the hits from each group on every draw. Sound a lot like Strings?”. My system is based on 4_Strings and The type of Draw (S,D,DD,T,Q).
Strings have the two groups of numbers that I start with. Rather than look for strings that I think will Break, I look at the strings that broke on the last draw. For each type of draw there is a fixed number of strings that break. S=15, D=35, DD=70, T=70 and Q=126. For each type of draw there will be a fixed set of numbers included on those broken strings and a fixed set that is not.
I name the groups; R for “Restart” and N for “New”. The R Group is the set of numbers that are included on the Broken Strings. The N group is the set of numbers that is not included. For a game following an S Draw there will always be 6 numbers in the R Group and 4 numbers in the N Group. Following a D Draw the groups include 7R, 3N. Following a DD Draw the groups include 8R, 2N. Following a T Draw 8R,2N.
I first noticed when looking at a matrix of Games and String Hits derived from Winsome’s fine Work, that from 63% to 100% of the Strings will start to reform on the next draw “Restart”. Looking back over all of the Ca Daily 4 Draws, I counted the number of hits from the R group for each draw. Each count is a String Event and that is the sequence I posted.
Whenever we play a Pick 4 Game by selecting numbers we make 4 decisions. 1 for each number. Our Odds of selecting the right number is 1:10 for each. Your odds of hitting a straight are 1:10000 and hitting a Box 1:417 (you have 24 possibilities of hitting a box) By creating the String event and making it's selection the first selection the odds of being correct are 1:5. The extreme difference in the counts make this selection more likely to be right because 3 of the options occur 88% of the time. Getting the decision correct reduces the number of combinations needed for a Box Win. The second decision is the type of Draw S,D,DD,T,Q. S and D occur in 94% of all draws. Getting this right further reduces the combinations from which the Box will come. For each game the Group numbers are set by the previous draw. Pairing the String Event with the Type is another sequence to predict from. Each game has a fixed set of numbers in each group as determined by the string event for the previous game. Pairing this with the String event for each game gives another sequence to predict from.
I will post the data and some tables for CA Daily 4 later tonight.