How Many Number Combinations Were Sold For Saturday's Draw?Prev Topic Next Topic

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Redd55

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Jan 10, 2016, 7:50 am

Anybody know?
CARBOB

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Jan 10, 2016, 7:55 am

Quote: Originally posted by Redd55 on Jan 10, 2016
Anybody know?

I have always wondered, how many different combinations, are produced for each draw?? They must have the ability to pick and choose ranges, to print or not.
BrunoDog4

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Jan 10, 2016, 8:15 am

Great question. Did they abolish allowing syndicates from buying all tickets guaranteeing them a win? I know 20 or so years ago an Australian Syndicate did just that.
Redd55

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Jan 10, 2016, 8:25 am

I believe that somebody mentioned days ago when the pot was much smaller that 64% of the combinations were sold. Dont know if true or what the ultimate sale was.
grwurston

100

Same #'s. Different games.

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Jan 10, 2016, 5:15 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Redd55 on Jan 10, 2016
I believe that somebody mentioned days ago when the pot was much smaller that 64% of the combinations were sold. Dont know if true or what the ultimate sale was.

The LA Times said 1 billion tickets were sold. I googled that question earlier today. As far as how many of the combos, I don't know.
Murgatroyd

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Jan 10, 2016, 6:23 pm

Quote: Originally posted by grwurston on Jan 10, 2016
The LA Times said 1 billion tickets were sold. I googled that question earlier today. As far as how many of the combos, I don't know.

LA Times is wrong. That's the approximate total number of tickets that have been sold since the last time someone won. The number sold for the most recent drawing was around 440 million. There's no way to know for sure how many distinct combinations were sold, but probabilistically speaking, it was likely around 78% of all possible combinations, or about 227 million.

And there's nothing preventing some group from buying all possible combinations, except for the logistical issues involved in actually filling out 58 million play slips and getting the tickets before the drawing.
KY Floyd

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Jan 10, 2016, 7:29 pm

"There's no way to know for sure how many distinct combinations were sold"

Sure there is. Every single play is registered, so there's are databases that contain all the necessary information. The question is how much attention the states and/or MUSL pay to those details, and how much they're interested in releasing to the public. We occasionally see snippets of info about some combinations being played excessively, so they obviously pay some attention to that.

The information I've seen suggests that about 440.3 million tickets were sold. As a purely random distribution that would be just about 77.85% of combinations. If the 28 5+0 winners all had a unique powerball then 77.78% of the powerballs would have been used for that particular combination.
Stack47

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Jan 10, 2016, 10:14 pm

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on Jan 10, 2016
"There's no way to know for sure how many distinct combinations were sold"

Sure there is. Every single play is registered, so there's are databases that contain all the necessary information. The question is how much attention the states and/or MUSL pay to those details, and how much they're interested in releasing to the public. We occasionally see snippets of info about some combinations being played excessively, so they obviously pay some attention to that.

The information I've seen suggests that about 440.3 million tickets were sold. As a purely random distribution that would be just about 77.85% of combinations. If the 28 5+0 winners all had a unique powerball then 77.78% of the powerballs would have been used for that particular combination.

There are 11,238,513 combinations in a 5/69 matrix and using that ratio, there should be 39 (440 million divided by 11,238,513) five number matches. Saturday's drawing was on the low side, but still in standard deviation range. There is no guarantee if 500 million tickets are sold the jackpot will be won, but likely with a 85% chance.
SilverLion

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Jan 11, 2016, 3:46 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Jan 10, 2016
There are 11,238,513 combinations in a 5/69 matrix and using that ratio, there should be 39 (440 million divided by 11,238,513) five number matches. Saturday's drawing was on the low side, but still in standard deviation range. There is no guarantee if 500 million tickets are sold the jackpot will be won, but likely with a 85% chance.

What do you mean by low side? How many were there?
dddwww

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Jan 11, 2016, 3:59 pm

Quote: Originally posted by SilverLion on Jan 11, 2016
What do you mean by low side? How many were there?

28
KY Floyd

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Jan 11, 2016, 4:15 pm

Quote: Originally posted by SilverLion on Jan 11, 2016
What do you mean by low side? How many were there?

There were fewer 5+0 winners than suggested by probability. Since there are 11,238,513 possible combinations for the 5 regular balls, probability suggests there will be 1 ticket matching all 5 numbers for every 11,238,513 sold. Since there's a chance that any ticket matching the 5 regular numbers will also match the powerball the odds of only having the 5+0 match is a bit lower at 1 in 11,688,053.52.

With 440.3 million tickets sold probability suggests that there will be 440,300,000/11,688,053.52, or 37.7 5+0 tickets. Obviously the actual number of tickets has to be a whole number, so figure 37 or 38 is what we might "expect".
SilverLion

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Jan 11, 2016, 4:28 pm

Quote: Originally posted by dddwww on Jan 11, 2016
28

Thanks. So ten lower than "normal" or what "probability" would dictate. That's quite a substantial deficiency considering the "number of combination" sold.

I think also that the quantity of combinations sold for any particular draw can be very misleading in regards to the chance that a JP will be hit. Especially

without a real lexigraphic distribution count. This is something that MUSL might have to do if the Jackpot continues to roll for many drawings without a winner.

(After all they will definitely be able to afford it) A lexi count would make it easier to see and analyze duplicate combinations.

We all know and can assume that 1 million combinations will have the combo 1 2 3 4 5 PB 6

We all know and can assume that 1 million combinations will have the combo 5 10 15 20 25 PB 30

We all know and can assume that 1 million combinations will have the combo 8 16 24 32 48 PB

So that's three million combos wasted and any analysis has to be re-evaluated.

And that's just a small sample of some very less than scientific combinations that will be played in mass.

Without a lexi breakdown, any analysis of "coverage" is just as the Republicans might say,

VOODOO LOTTERY STATISTICS
savagegoose

adelaide sa
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Jan 11, 2016, 6:47 pm

if you know what percent f purchases goes to the jackpot then the mount of the jackpot increase tells you how much was spent then just divide tht y 2 for how many tickets where sold

" Still swinging, still missing "
2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 = -1171; 2017 = -1257 ; 2018 = - 1380 = TOT = - 6233

keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 =-427; 2018= -223 TOT = -3968

:
TRUEBELIEVER

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Jan 12, 2016, 6:11 am

I read some where online that only 80% of combinations were bought

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