Lottery Post analyzes the multi-state jackpot's slow 3-month ascent
By Todd Northrop
Normally a $280 million jackpot would prompt even lottery skeptics to consider buying a ticket, but for some reason Mega Millions players have been forced to endure tepid sales that are inching the game's jackpot upward at a snail's pace.
So lottery players looking to win a life-changing mega jackpot can be excused for asking the contradictory questions, "What's wrong with Mega Millions?" and, "Where can I buy a ticket?"
To put the current jackpot's gradual increase into perspective, in March of 2012 a Mega Millions jackpot that rolled 18 times set the record for the world's largest lottery jackpot — $656 million, won by three tickets from Illinois, Kansas, and Maryland. And that jackpot roll started at $12 million rather than the current $15 million starting point.
Despite the slowly-growing jackpot, the multi-state game has many loyal fans who play every drawing.
According to Paula Otto, Executive Director of the Virginia Lottery, the state lottery directors guiding the Mega Millions game are satisfied with the game's positioning.
"What our research showed is that players consider the Mega Millions game easier to win and like to have the $1 price point for a jackpot game," Otto said in response to Lottery Post's inquiry. "Rather than try to compete with Powerball (a game with the potential for $1 billion+ jackpots), the Mega Millions directors are comfortable with having a game that complements Powerball."
Mega Millions sales are down 10% to 20%, depending on the size of the jackpot, according to analysis conducted by Alan Hussey, Economic Research Manager for the Virginia Lottery.
"If we look back to a similar run from March 27 to June 2, 2015 we see a jackpot that grew to $260 million in 20 draws. Last night's jackpot of $260 million took 26 draws," Hussey said.
There are a couple of underlying reasons for the slower-than-normal jackpot increases.
Otto postulates that the first reason is a general lottery industry concept: when one game is thriving or has a huge jackpot, the other one often suffers a bit.
"This is an expected phenomenon, and is why having both Powerball and Mega Millions available to players in all lottery states is good for players and for the beneficiaries of state lotteries," Otto explained.
The second reason is a little more technical, and has to do with the current interest rates that determine the value of the annuity jackpot estimate.
"Today's low interest rates are not helping," Hussey concluded. "In last year's roll, every dollar in the jackpot pool was being multiplied by 1.64 to be converted into the advertised annuity.... In that June 2, 2015 draw, it took $159.9 million of cash for us to support a jackpot of $262.2 million.
"Last night, we had to have $174.2 million of cash on hand to support an advertised jackpot of $261.4 million. In other words, a dollar in hand is only worth $1.50 (vs. $1.64 a year ago) over the 30 payments."
This "double whammy" of Powerball's comparative success, plus today's lower interest rates, "are combining to noticeably slow down the time it takes for the jackpot to grow," Hussey said.
Despite the slow jackpot rise, the current Mega Millions jackpot represents a great lottery buy for players and non-players alike. Although the annuity estimate of $280 million is only #33 on the all-time list of US annuity jackpots, the cash value of $186.5 million is the 23rd-largest cash value in history. (See the complete top-25 jackpot cash value list below.)
Although the odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are a steep 1 in 258,890,850, they are still better than the 1 in 292,201,338 odds of winning Powerball, at half the cost. Buying 2 Mega Millions tickets (the equivalent cost of buying 1 Powerball ticket) would provide odds of 1 in 129.5 million in comparison to the 1 in 292.2 million odds of winning Powerball.
Another factor in Mega Millions' favor is that by purchasing the Megaplier option for an extra $1 per play, the second prize can increase to as much as $5 million, as opposed to Powerball's Power Play option, which increases the second prize to a capped $2 million.
The Megaplier option is available in all jurisdictions except California, where the fixed nature of the prize increase offered with the Megaplier is not compatible with California's pari-mutuel payouts. By law, California awards all prizes on a pari-mutuel basis, meaning the prizes will change each drawing based on the number of tickets sold and the number of tickets that won at each prize level.
Mega Millions is currently offered for sale in 44 states, plus Washington, D.C. and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Drawings are Tuesdays and Fridays at 11:00 pm Eastern Time. Tickets cost $1 each.
The Mega Millions winning numbers are published at USA Mega (www.usamega.com) minutes after the drawing takes place.
Will you be playing Mega Millions in the Friday drawing? Sound off in the comments section below!
Top 25 United States cash value jackpots of all time
Friday's Mega Millions jackpot currently stands as the 23rd-largest lottery cash value jackpot of all time in the United States. Since many lottery winners collect their winnings in cash, the lump-sum payout is an important measure of what a winning ticket could be worth.
- Powerball: $983.5 million cash, Jan. 13, 2016 ($1.5864 billion annuity) - California, Florida, Tennessee
- Mega Millions: $471 million cash, Mar. 30, 2012 ($656 million annuity) - Illinois, Kansas, Maryland
- Powerball: $384.7 million cash, Nov. 28, 2012 ($587.5 million annuity) - Arizona, Missouri
- Powerball: $381.1 million cash, Feb. 11, 2015 ($564.1 million annuity) - North Carolina, Puerto Rico, Texas
- Powerball: $370.9 million cash, May 18, 2013 ($590.5 million annuity) - Florida
- Mega Millions: $347.6 million cash, Dec. 17, 2013 ($636 million annuity) - California, Georgia
- Powerball: $284 million cash, May 7, 2016 ($429.6 million annuity) - New Jersey
- Powerball: $258.2 million cash, Aug. 7, 2013 ($448.4 million annuity) - Minnesota, New Jersey (2)
- Mega Millions: $240 million cash, Jan. 4, 2011 ($380 million annuity) - Idaho, Washington
- Mega Millions: $233.1 million cash, Mar. 6, 2007 ($390 million annuity) - Georgia, New Jersey
- Mega Millions: $230.9 million cash, Mar. 18, 2014 ($414 million annuity) - Florida, Maryland
- Powerball: $227.8 million cash, Feb. 19, 2014 ($425.3 million annuity) - California
- Powerball: $224.7 million cash, Aug. 15, 2012 ($337 million annuity) - Michigan
- Powerball: $223.3 million cash, Sep. 18, 2013 ($399.4 million annuity) - South Carolina
- Mega Millions: $214 million cash, Aug. 28, 2009 ($336 million annuity) - California, New York
- Powerball: $211 million cash, Mar. 23, 2013 ($338.3 million annuity) - New Jersey
- Powerball: $210 million cash, Feb. 11, 2012 ($336.4 million annuity) - Rhode Island
- Mega Millions: $202.9 million cash, Mar. 25, 2011 ($319 million annuity) - New York
- Mega Millions: $197.5 million cash, Nov. 4, 2014 ($321 million annuity) - New York
- Powerball: $197.4 million cash, Sep. 30, 2015 ($310.5 million annuity) - Michigan
- Mega Millions: $194.4 million cash, Aug. 31, 2007 ($330 million annuity) - Maryland, New Jersey, Texas, Virginia
- Powerball: $191.9 million cash, Mar. 2, 2016 ($291.4 million annuity) - Florida
- Mega Millions: $186.5 million cash, Jun. 10, 2016 ($280 million annuity) - Preliminary estimate, not won yet
- Mega Millions: $185 million cash, Nov. 15, 2005 ($315 million annuity) - California
- The Big Game: $180 million cash, May 9, 2000 ($363 million annuity) - Illinois, Michigan
The number of cash value jackpots in the top 25, by lottery game, are:
- Powerball: 13
- Mega Millions: 11
- The Big Game: 1
The Big Game is the original name of Mega Millions, from the game's first drawing on Sep. 6, 1996 through May 14, 2002. The name was changed to Mega Millions starting with the May 17, 2002 drawing.
One tic with megaplier every draw.
Second prize works just fine for me.
The jump in the next Jackpot is getting larger in expectation of a Betting Frenzy!
Does buying 2 megamillions tickets really cut the odds in half to 1 in 129 million? That doesn't seem correct. Buying 2 tickets only takes 2 combinations out of the pool
Ponderously - New Vocabulary Word for Me. Let me educate myself.
Just making sure that I understand the word ponderously correctly, as it pertains to the lottery:
From Webster's online Dictionary:
Full Definition of ponderous
1 : of very great weight
2 : unwieldy or clumsy because of weight and size
3 : oppressively or unpleasantly dull : lifeless <ponderous prose>
It is correct.
Yes, "ponderous" is of very great weight, but ponderously, as an adverb, is to act in a heavy ponderous manner. Which is the action of the current jackpot ascent.
Yes also to the question of whether or not people care. A fast-growing jackpot gains great attention and excitement, whereas a slow-moving jackpot tends to be overlooked by the masses — which itself maintains the slow pace of growth.
Mega Millions Drawing in YouTube is unclear and seems rigged while Powerball drawing is clear
"Excitement" - Agreed. However, I was thinking that it may also be an underlying issue of GREED !!!
People simply want to win MORE MONEY, as Much Money as possible !!!
Why can't people be Appreciative and Happy Enough with Small Jackpots ???
The Divine Lesson to learn is GRATITUDE !!! Even for "Small Jackpots" of $40 Million + !!!
Feel - Thank You Divinity !!!
Todd, It was probably just a typo but the $656 million MM jackpot from March 2012 only rolled over 18 times and not 26. You do bring up a very valid point that it's taking considerably more draws to reach frenzy size jackpots.
Great catch! I have fixed the error, thanks.
DC- the word "ponderously" is almost always associated with the way Elephants walk, just to give you a word picture.
Anyways- l want this ponderous jackpot to take it's sweet time between now & Friday before coming to rest in California, preferably in my bank account
"Can't win" is so strong with this run that I can see it rolling to over $2 billion and becoming the largest JP of all time.
Yep, second prize is why I like MM over PB that and the odds on MM are slightly better.
Also, three tickets within 100 miles of me have won second prize while two tickets have taken the jackpot.
There haven't been any such winners on PB like that around here.
Odds of winning MM Million dollar prize: 1:18,492,204
Odds of winning PB Million dollar prize: 1:11,688,054
A 10 to 20 percent drop in ticket sales? More like 30-40... I looked at the break even payout last drawing and it's huge in Georgia, over 50,000 winners not including megaplier. And in Tennessee over 17,000... Which is a huge jump... People are playing. They are being too conservative... Need to boost it to 300 million before Friday and sit back and count the dollars coming in. Especially if Powerball is won.
but after the last $2 spent,
I think I'm gonna wait a drawing or two and let it grow on someone else's money instead of mine
Good luck to those that play every drawing
Yep, Michigan is a "Can't lose" state. I wish I could buy tickets there!
Price of PB ticket 2$, Price of MM ticket $1.
18,492,204/2 = 9,246,102 for 2 tix on MM!
Odds of JP on PB 292,201,338
Odds of JP on MM 258,890,250
258,890,250/2 = 129,445,425!
For Mega Millions, I am playing two self-picks and one quick pick. The quick pick is good for another 19 draws.
I hope Fate delivers a jackpot win to a LP member. $112,000,000.00 Here in California looks pretty sweet.
This is what billion dollar jackpots can do... Anything less than 500 isn't news or frenzy worthy anymore.
until then... Putt. Putt putt
still find it hard to believe MM increased less than PB min amount of 10 mil increments last week... Terrible
You are absolutely correct.
When the JP was over 1B, people were crossing not only state lines, but the north and south borders and the international sales through theLotter website crashed. Greed, greed and more greed.
Greed can be good. Such as when you must earn a living to support your family. You will need money for everything from a Home to a car, clothes, furniture, electronics, medical and dental insurance, insurance for other things, the list could be endless.
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Thank you, Mr. Hearsetrax,
For now, I am one of those who play every single drawing of MM and PB.
And for over a year (and a half?), I have been doing just that; not just keeping an eye on
the "largest" jackpots.
I'm sure many others here on LP do as well. Why on this corrupt, unfair, harsh planet wouldn't you?
I'm looking for every possible, easy edge that I can manage, within my means.
I'm just as anxious and greedy as the next lotto player, just to win the 2nd prize.
Mr. Groppo
If I won this $280M jackpot I'd be more than happy! I don't need it to be $1B in order for me to get jazzed about the opportunities this would provide me.
Why would $280M make me happy? Because happiness is:
Ms. Lopez, I know this is our first date but my goal tonight is to get you pregnant!!!!!!
OK, if 258,890, 250/2 = 129, 445, 425
it only takes 29 more times to divide by 2 to get the odds to 0.241103, that's right, ZERO POINT 241103, odds under 1.
So just put up $30 bucks and you've got a lock, right?
Or get 30 people to put up $1, etc...ad nauseam.
Are you at all embarrassed that we've been over this a dozen or more times but it still confuses you?
It isn't having another ticket that cuts the odds in half. It's having twice as many tickets. If you've only got 1 ticket it only takes 1 more to have twice as many, but when you've got 2 tickets having twice as many requires 2 more tickets. When you've got 4 tickets you'll need 4 more to have twice as many. And so on.
To double the number of tickets 30 times you'd need to have 1,073,741,824 tickets. That's a fairly big number, but it's still very simple math. Do you think it's just a weird coincidence that 258,890,250/1,073,741,824 = 0.241103?
its official the little maggots are starting to get restless ...........
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If I won, the house you've selected is ok, but the Smart Car?
And then Morticia? I guess she could wax the car and clean the house.
(but please, no Gomez or Uncle Fester, or Grand Ma Ma. . . . or Lurch).
We've been over this more than a dozen times and the urban legend still is believed to be true.
I don't care how many tickets are involved, each individual set of numbers is up against the same odds. One and only one set of winning numbers is drawn.
Does any LP blogger believe as I do that lottery fatigue has set in? Still, I'd be happy with the five #'s with Powerplay or Megaplier and be set for life.
Golfer1960- You have very modest and down to earth taste on the kind of home or vehicle it takes to make you happy. On the other hand, a high maintenance person like J.Lo would quickly evaporate your winnings.
BTW, the second home with the golf cart beneath looks very similar to our current residence. Instead of the hardiplank siding and stone we opted for brick and stone.
It should be the huge prize that gets people to buy tickets but the odds deter them from buying more. The pools have changed too many times to increase jackpots ,as a result many people don't bother to buy a ticket.
Wow, you think J. Lo looks like Morticia Adams?
I think Morticia is cute too.
Hi D!! I didn't realize my taste were modest but I love your house!!!!
Yes, J. Lo would be high maintence but isn't she worth it?
If not, do you know any J. Lo lookalikes?
"the odds deter them from buying more"
You hit the nail on the head. I agree that the odds are a major deterrent keeping folks from parting with their hard earned money. Many simply wait until the jackpot gets larger not because a base jackpot of either $15 or $40 million isn't enough but the long odds just don't make economic sense to play each and every draw.
This is just another reason why so many gravitate toward the pick 3 or 4 games as they have a much greater chance of success.
The current Mega Millions Jackpot is just fine by me!
I don't get your reasoning but I think it's ironic that anyone who plays any lottery game, especially one with a starting point of $40M would call anyone else greedy.
Why play? Why not be satisfied with income from working? Why go for more? Isn't that being greedy and ungrateful?
If I'm going to put money into something as far fetched as a lottery jackpot, of course I'm going to shoot for the highest number I can get. I will be unbelievably grateful for any amount I win, whether it be 2nd, 3rd or 4th tier, I will consider it a blessing, but with the odds being what they are, I'd rather not put money in when the JP is low. I'd rather put ticket $$ aside and improve my odds by buying more tickets when the jackpot is higher. The more money I get, the more people I'd be able to help without worrying overly much about my own financial future.
I hope the jackpot continues to roll until one ticket wins the largest Mega Millions jackpot ever (with lump sum).
The guy claims he was a Craps dealer in Vegas where odds are calculated as a ratio of ways to lose to ways to win, but still wants to debate meaningless lottery odds trivia.
MM sales were about 1.6 million more last night than the sales for last Friday's $251 million jackpot and it looks like not many new players bought tickets. At some point (and it may take a few more drawings) the players who are sitting out will begin buying tickets and LP will have the next round of advice for jackpot winners that won't read it.
depends on if those 2 tickets have the same 6 numbers on then or not. use a 6 sided dice its easier to get your head around hopw that works. same practice, just with 1 in 6 odds .
just roll it 24 times and count how many 1 or 2 's come up. compare that to how many ones come up. roughly double.
A thirteen million dollar rollover on a $280M annuity jackpot.
Paula Otto says they're "satisfied." Well, I know why I don't play MM very often. They nearly doubled the odds against winning the jackpot while announcing that they were improving the odds, doublespeak, in typical lottery fashion.
If you reduce the value of a product, you should not expect sales to go up, but they did, and they're satisfied.
Wow.
I look at these small roll overs as more chances for us regular players to win before it hits a new record jackpot.
I will be very satisfied when I get the check for $148,680,650.00
Just imagine how I could invest that principal and live off the interest/dividends.
Tuesday night can't come quick enough.
Last night's rollover was 13 million for the annuity, but 11.7 for the cash lump-sum. The ratio of cash to annuity increased again, from about .666 to around .676. Has the annuity ever looked worse, as far as getting locked in to a low interest rate for 29 years?
The cash payout should move up a bit on the top 25 list, despite not producing the frenzy-inducing major news headlines yet.
People aren't bothering to play because "Can't win" is so strong with this one.
It will not be won until EVERY possible number combination is sold, bank on it.
By the way, look at the numbers drawn last night, it was trends!
You have to know that this is their PR spin.
No way was marketing going to let them make a statement having to acknowledge that they went through the time and expense of a complete matrix change in the hopes of achieving fewer but higher jackpot values, only to have sales be embarrassingly decreased just a few years after the fact.
What's happening now is the opposite of what they want or expected, but since "OOPS" doesn't make for a good headline, they're putting their best foot forward and claiming satisfaction. I'd actually love to see Powerball overtake them, just to hear what the spin would be then.
Yes, I know this is PR spin.
Even though they generally assume that lottery players are stupid by raising the odds and announcing that they're reducing them - a bald faced lie - I think they themselves are smart enough to recognize that their plan isn't working.
I assume we'll see some kind of change to this game within the next few months. They've pretty much destroyed it, producing a game with 27 rollovers and nothing like a record jackpot, not even close to one.
The people who don't understand it failed basic statistics in school.
Ladies and Gentlemen now back to your original programming. Lottery fatigue again strikes, MM only went up $13 million from the last draw.
In Craps just like in MM and PB there are multiple ways to lose, but unlike in jackpot games where only one of millions of combos can win, in Craps there are more than one to win. For instance if the point is "six" there are 5 ways to roll a six and 6 ways to lose rolling "seven". The odds are 6/5 against winning the bet.
No matter how many different tickets are purchased, only one of the 258 million plus MM combos will be drawn.
Imagine if no one wins it Tuesday and it doesn't even get to 300M (293 now). If that happens, they'll panic.
Perhaps if Powerball wasn't climbing along side of it, MM would definitely jump another $7 million for Tuesday. Who knows, maybe they will round it up.
That would indeed be a shocker but I highly doubt it won't exceed $300million if it rolls over.
It certainly would go over $300 million if it rolls over, I think that is what you meant to say. Anyway it doesn't matter---get your lucky ticket(s)!
Powerball is at 150M, it's not a factor in the slow growth of MM.
Neither do I, but it technically could given MM only has a 5M minimum increase requirement.
I know that, what I'm trying to say when lotteries are chasing one another, the jackpot grow slower. Look at the times when one was 'low' and the other much higher. The subsequent drawings for the higher one took off like a rocket, just look at previous jackpots over the years.
I'm ready for a piece of it...
Ditto to that. I second that emotion as Smokey Robinson would sing.
I'd be happy if I hit the 5 regular balls, that would be a cool million plus whatever the megaplyer is.
I'm going to win it hahahahah
Rollover, JP is now $310M.
______________________
MoneyMike$,
Looks like your sig. over rode your post!
With a rollover of $17M on a nearly 300M jackpot. Cash went up $12.3M. Cash is now 68.1% of the Jackpot.
Whenever I consider the thirty-year payment plan I just have to think about inflation. It would eat up your future payments.
Remember inflation during the 1970's and early '80's.
The same applies to the Lump Sum but you will have the opportunity to invest and beat inflation.
Here in California, I am looking at $127.5 million after all taxes are paid by April 15, 2017.