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Coin Toss

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Dec 7, 2017, 11:54 pm

The Nov. 2017 issue of Money had an article about Powerball. Most of what was in the article were topics already discussed on LP but the last item was a little different.

That part was about bankruptcies of neighbors of jackpot winners. It mentioned that when jackpot winners male purchases of things they previously couldn't afford, the neighbors do the same, despite mot having won a jackpot.

I'm sure that's not exclusive to powerball jackpots.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
Raven62

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Dec 8, 2017, 6:25 am

Trying to keep up with the Joneses by living above one's means will have that negative social effect.

A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

Catch-22: A dilemma or difficult circumstance from which there is no escape because of mutually conflicting or dependent conditions.

Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges: When the republic is at its most corrupt the laws are most numerous.

The best way to learn is to never stop being an Experiential Student!
eddessaknight

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Dec 8, 2017, 6:29 am

A significant revelation, Coin, for inquiring students of human nature or gaming psychology, wouldn't you think?

Good Luck & Good Night

EddessaKnight
JeffLebowski

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Dec 8, 2017, 7:41 am

Social instinct is a dangerous thing in many ways... But I still can understand such neighbours. Being able to control oneself in such a situation is more than just challenging..
hearsetrax

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Dec 8, 2017, 8:57 am
DELotteryPlyr

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Dec 8, 2017, 6:28 pm

Interesting, how did they KNOW the neighbors filed BK? And how many instances did they see this? I get the feeling they came across it once or twice and extrapolated it to apply to most Jackpot winners.
Coin Toss

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Dec 8, 2017, 8:45 pm

Raven62, Edessa, JeffLebowski, agree on all points.

DELotteryPlyr,

Such data is not at all hard to find out in this day and age.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any. So many systems, so many theories, so few jackpot winners.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.
DELotteryPlyr

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Dec 9, 2017, 11:27 am

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on Dec 8, 2017
Raven62, Edessa, JeffLebowski, agree on all points.

DELotteryPlyr,

Such data is not at all hard to find out in this day and age.

Yes you are correct that this information is available. I guess I would have wanted to see if they listed any sources or mentioned how they located the information. In today's reporting/press ect its rare that actual work is done for a article. And I would also think they would mention how they located that information given all the 'fake news' claims being tossed about.
realtorjim

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Dec 9, 2017, 5:06 pm

Quote: Originally posted by DELotteryPlyr on Dec 9, 2017
Yes you are correct that this information is available. I guess I would have wanted to see if they listed any sources or mentioned how they located the information. In today's reporting/press ect its rare that actual work is done for a article. And I would also think they would mention how they located that information given all the 'fake news' claims being tossed about.

I believe "fake news" is becoming passe. 'Alternate truth' seems more fitting today.

I'm feeling a $312,000,000.00 jackpot win coming my way!
KY Floyd

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Dec 9, 2017, 9:59 pm

Quote: Originally posted by DELotteryPlyr on Dec 8, 2017
Interesting, how did they KNOW the neighbors filed BK? And how many instances did they see this? I get the feeling they came across it once or twice and extrapolated it to apply to most Jackpot winners.

Bankruptcies are public records. Knowing where the lottery winners live is probably the most challenging part of it.

The basic idea is old news. I don't remember much detail, but I saw an article about a correlation between lottery winners and neighbors filing for bankruptcy quite a while back. There's an online article from August that might be the one CoinToss saw, and it's based on a study (that wasn't done by Money) published in October 2016. You can read the abstract and download the full paper here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2731562 I'm reasonably sure that the article I saw was from more than 14 months ago. The study makes reference to some research from 2011, so perhaps what I saw was related to that.

I didn't read the study, but a quick search shows that they excluded any prize of more than 150k Canadian, so they didn't include any jackpot winners, except perhaps from from games where the top prize is relatively modest. I expect that prizes of 250k to a million or two may have had an effect on neighbor's bankruptcies, but I'm inclined to think that at some point the win is unlikely to have much effect, if any, because people who win a lot of money tend to move. In those new neighborhoods the neighbors are usually farther away, where they may not be as aware of the expensive toys the winner may buy, and/or the neighbors are also pretty well off and far less likely to have financial problems because of spending an extra 5, 10, or even 50k.
LiveInGreenBay

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Dec 10, 2017, 9:58 am

Given the mentality of juries now days, I wouldn't be surprised if one of the neighbors sued and won a substantial amount. They forced me to buy those toys. LOL

Never give up.
lejardin

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Dec 10, 2017, 3:48 pm

hahahahahahahahahahaha good one Hearsetrax! And LiveinGB, you are probably right about the lawsuit lol.
Teddi

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Dec 10, 2017, 5:07 pm

Quote: Originally posted by DELotteryPlyr on Dec 9, 2017
Yes you are correct that this information is available. I guess I would have wanted to see if they listed any sources or mentioned how they located the information. In today's reporting/press ect its rare that actual work is done for a article. And I would also think they would mention how they located that information given all the 'fake news' claims being tossed about.

The study isn't a new one as we discussed it here over a year ago. All the sources and data used were provided by the study and ridiculously easy to obtain, for all those who don't take issue with reading instead of simply jumping on the bandwagon of claiming fake news for everything they can't be bothered to look up. Unlike the Bowling Green massacre touted by Corpse Bride, this is something that actually existed so the details are there for all to see.

The study itself only included lottery winners who won within a set dollar range and only included winners who never moved from the neighborhood they were in when they won.

The study only extrapolated a THEORY, they never made it a FACT as one glaring and obvious omission in the study was that it wasn't known what the state of the finances were of the people who filed for bankruptcy prior to the neighbor winning the lottery. We don't know if the spikes were attributed to something else entirely, such as divorces, illnesses/medical expenses, sudden change in employment status etc. All we know is that there is a small spike in bankruptcies in the neighbors of lottery winners. It could be the cause, it could be pure coincidence, further studies are needed to form an accurate conclusion.

Same thing happens when we see a cancer cluster. Maybe it's the contaminated well water, maybe it's a coincidence, but because the cluster is an anomaly in and of itself, it gets reported. The bankruptcies were anomalous clusters, hence the articles. It's a fascinating social behavior and psychological theory that warrants further study and reporting...in the news.
Teddi

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Dec 10, 2017, 5:31 pm

Quote: Originally posted by DELotteryPlyr on Dec 8, 2017
Interesting, how did they KNOW the neighbors filed BK? And how many instances did they see this? I get the feeling they came across it once or twice and extrapolated it to apply to most Jackpot winners.

Instead of getting a "feeling" why don't you just read the actual report. Wouldn't it be easier and smarter to read the report BEFORE making assumptions about what you THINK it might contain and how you THINK how they gathered their data? Or is that just me?
Raven62

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Dec 10, 2017, 5:47 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Raven62 on Dec 8, 2017
Trying to keep up with the Joneses by living above one's means will have that negative social effect.

Why Lottery Winners Make Dangerous Neighbors:

http://time.com/money/4503078/powerball-jackpot-lottery-winner-neighbors-bankrupt/

A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

Catch-22: A dilemma or difficult circumstance from which there is no escape because of mutually conflicting or dependent conditions.

Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges: When the republic is at its most corrupt the laws are most numerous.

The best way to learn is to never stop being an Experiential Student!

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