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Quote: Originally posted by garyo1954 on May 5, 2019
The deeper I get into replicating statistics for the Texas 5/35, the more I reminded of the Law of Large Numbers.
Seems that (Law of Large Numbers) is the true obstacle in prediction, whether by computer or human logic. You can have the greatest prediction in the world for tonight's draw and the Law will not guarantee it (but it does not deny that possibility).
The Law does not say it will comply with our best laid plans. And often does not play by its own rules, telling us one thing while doing another. That's the Law of Laws.
All we know it at some point it will begin to fall in line with what it says it will do. Maybe today, maybe tomorrow, maybe next week, next month, next year.....the Law is a playful kitten with a ball of yarn. Its just happy at the moment.
The Law is a trump card. You play your best ace and she says, "Hold my beer......"
Looking at the pairs that have hit is to see the Law smirk. The consecutive pair 11,12 has not hit since the realignment of the game, 192 draws ago. And yet classical probability tell us we should see every consecutive pair hit once in 60 draws. Three rounds of 60 says that's a lie. 11,12 has lost 192 consecutive draws.
Now, on the other end of the spectrum 17,23 has hit 10 times, (about 1:20) defeating the Law, the rule, and most common sense.
So what is it that tells us we need a premium on consecutive pairs? What makes them so special?
G
garyo,
Now, on the other end of the spectrum 17,23 has hit 10 times, (about 1:20) defeating the Law, the rule, and most common sense.
The sample of 192 draws is obviously way too small for the Law of large numbers to apply. As the time goes by the pair 11,12 will start hitting for sure. The problem is: can you time it? I don't believe so although lucky shots are always possible.
Unfortunately randomness and common sense are seldom good partners. Generally I avoid pairing them together, as it usually results in boo-boo. If I catch a pattern that is winning now I do not analyse it for logic or sensibility - just play the darn thing no matter how illogical, perhaps even stupid, it appears.
So what is it that tells us we need a premium on consecutive pairs? What makes them so special?
I think it's just another proof that in random distribution anything may happen with equal probability. However, you can observe trends among pairs and see how they perform at any given time and in comparison with other pairs as well as with the past. This would definitely make sense to me as after 5 17,23 pair hits I would definitely assume that this pair might be a future winner as well (and in this case I would be correct). As 11,12, as the time went by, never hit most likely I would never select them as well - unless, for some reason, I decided to play overdue.
Years ago I had a function for selecting most frequent pairs in a given period of time. I called the function "Best partners". Unfortunately, with the computer speeds in late 80-ties one computation for 6/49 and several hundred draws would take overnight at least so I gave up and never went back to the issue, perhaps wrongly.
And yet classical probability tell us we should see every consecutive pair hit once in 60 draws.
If such regularities were common in random lotteries it would be actually easy to win. Definitely not the case. Whatever Igor discovered or invented, if it's based on assumption of regularity and timing in randomness, it's a lost cause by default - randomness very rarely, if ever, becomes regular and thus predictable.
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Quote: Originally posted by aquariuslottery on May 6, 2019
garyo,
Now, on the other end of the spectrum 17,23 has hit 10 times, (about 1:20) defeating the Law, the rule, and most common sense.
The sample of 192 draws is obviously way too small for the Law of large numbers to apply. As the time goes by the pair 11,12 will start hitting for sure. The problem is: can you time it? I don't believe so although lucky shots are always possible.
Unfortunately randomness and common sense are seldom good partners. Generally I avoid pairing them together, as it usually results in boo-boo. If I catch a pattern that is winning now I do not analyse it for logic or sensibility - just play the darn thing no matter how illogical, perhaps even stupid, it appears.
So what is it that tells us we need a premium on consecutive pairs? What makes them so special?
I think it's just another proof that in random distribution anything may happen with equal probability. However, you can observe trends among pairs and see how they perform at any given time and in comparison with other pairs as well as with the past. This would definitely make sense to me as after 5 17,23 pair hits I would definitely assume that this pair might be a future winner as well (and in this case I would be correct). As 11,12, as the time went by, never hit most likely I would never select them as well - unless, for some reason, I decided to play overdue.
Years ago I had a function for selecting most frequent pairs in a given period of time. I called the function "Best partners". Unfortunately, with the computer speeds in late 80-ties one computation for 6/49 and several hundred draws would take overnight at least so I gave up and never went back to the issue, perhaps wrongly.
And yet classical probability tell us we should see every consecutive pair hit once in 60 draws.
If such regularities were common in random lotteries it would be actually easy to win. Definitely not the case. Whatever Igor discovered or invented, if it's based on assumption of regularity and timing in randomness, it's a lost cause by default - randomness very rarely, if ever, becomes regular and thus predictable.
Aquarius
Definitely some good points.
Texas just doesn't seem to have good luck with their five ball games. The 5/39 failed for various reasons, most stemming from poor sales and lack of winners, which go hand in hand. No ones winning, no ones buying.
They rode the 5/37 into the dirt with parimutuel payouts until it ate dust paying out below $8000 per jackpot.
There seems to be no lack of winners this time around, but the lowest jackpot of any 5/35 in the nation at $25,000. Massachusetts and Connecticut pay $100,000 and South Dakota is a rollover game, if it hasn't been won, would be above $300,000.
Whether Texas can sustain this game is yet to be seen. Mostly though, I'm lamenting all the lost data that comes with a new game.
There is plenty of people who recommend all the data be in accordance with the change in matrix. One makes the point using the sums distribution. In years of tracking a 5/35 sums distribution should fall between 68 and 112. My chart with the 5/39 and 5/37 data was between 76 and 117. In such a case, I'll defer to the expert.
Its well known that timing is not the key with pairs and triples. Instead the other way around. Pairs and triples act much like key or power numbers in which you replace the two to three numbers while continuing to play the same pair or triple. Since pairs hit about 50% of the time there's no lack of possibilities.
In my view, playing "win tonight" is not a sound statistical philosophy. The odds seem to be as good as having a snowball fight in my backyard on Christmas. (We've had two snowfalls in the ten years I've been here)
And I don't think anyone means 'discovered' in the terms they originated the idea. I hope they don't anyway. I think they mean their eyes were opened to certain things through their research. As I said having read several, they all seem to come to common ground from different directions. And from their varying points of view they developed systems to confront the problem (from their viewpoint).
While not identical, there is common ground with good points in all of them (and points I don't care for).
In this case, I'm attempting to mesh the good ideas with my "good" ideas. So at this point I'm not going to direct my comments to any specific system but discuss the good/common ideas of a system.
You know, I've got 15 years, 3 days here. I'm too close to my 20 year T-shirt to venture into the DANGER ZONE!
G
I'm probably here unless I'm not.
Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain.
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After hundreds of hours, I finally figured out a way for my spreadsheet to automatically show the pattern for the 14th round in the powerball lottery. All the way back to October, 2015. Wooohoooo!!!
Ohio United States
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Quote: Originally posted by Cmoore50 on May 11, 2019
After hundreds of hours, I finally figured out a way for my spreadsheet to automatically show the pattern for the 14th round in the powerball lottery. All the way back to October, 2015. Wooohoooo!!!
Way to go Cmoore50!
It's nice to see someone take the time and to have the patience and determination to learn and find a way to help themselves.
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Rolling Cash Five..Monday, May 1th was 9-10-24-27-34
I haven't started the two third spreadsheets for the rolling cash five yet. But this morning I went over the last 16 draws for the hell of it to see which numbers haven't been drawn. The 9-19-37 are the zeros after 80 numbers. So I played those numbers together..9-19...9-37..19-37..then picked the rest using pairs/triplets and even/odd strategy. Here's two tickets I played..9-10-11-24-37....9-10-11-34-37....oh so close to 4 out of 5..Didn't have 27 anywhere. Spent 10 bucks...Getting back $22...First time I've played the rolling cash five in months..
Check this out...Before Saturdays Powerball on May 11th...If you were to look over the last 28 drawings. Which is 140 total numbers. The numbers that didn't hit over that span were... 9-11-22-40-57-58...9 and 40 came in.. I have those spreadsheets done all the way up to 28 draws. Since December 5th 2018 there were 17 times six numbers weren't hit after 28 draws..Twice, two of those six came in...Three times, just one number came up. Not the greatest stats. There are two other double digit hit in that time span using 11 numbers..(54 tickets to get 2 numbers...and you'd only have it once..but they were both odd/even hits..Cut it in half doing that..Side note...the two six number hits were odd/even hits also...Maybe I'm on to something..lol!!
Next..Powerball...Numbers that haven't hit after 28 draws are 11-22-57-58....
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Quote: Originally posted by Cmoore50 on May 13, 2019
Rolling Cash Five..Monday, May 1th was 9-10-24-27-34
I haven't started the two third spreadsheets for the rolling cash five yet. But this morning I went over the last 16 draws for the hell of it to see which numbers haven't been drawn. The 9-19-37 are the zeros after 80 numbers. So I played those numbers together..9-19...9-37..19-37..then picked the rest using pairs/triplets and even/odd strategy. Here's two tickets I played..9-10-11-24-37....9-10-11-34-37....oh so close to 4 out of 5..Didn't have 27 anywhere. Spent 10 bucks...Getting back $22...First time I've played the rolling cash five in months..
Check this out...Before Saturdays Powerball on May 11th...If you were to look over the last 28 drawings. Which is 140 total numbers. The numbers that didn't hit over that span were... 9-11-22-40-57-58...9 and 40 came in.. I have those spreadsheets done all the way up to 28 draws. Since December 5th 2018 there were 17 times six numbers weren't hit after 28 draws..Twice, two of those six came in...Three times, just one number came up. Not the greatest stats. There are two other double digit hit in that time span using 11 numbers..(54 tickets to get 2 numbers...and you'd only have it once..but they were both odd/even hits..Cut it in half doing that..Side note...the two six number hits were odd/even hits also...Maybe I'm on to something..lol!!
Next..Powerball...Numbers that haven't hit after 28 draws are 11-22-57-58....
Rolling Cash five was May 13th...I messed up...31 hasn't come in either..So going into Tuesday nights (May 14th) drawing...19-31-35-37 haven't hit in the last 16 drawings in the rolling cash five..
Ohio United States
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Two Thirds sheet..May 18th's number was 2-10-25-66-67.....66 is listed a 4 but for patterns, its really a 3..The 4 just means it came up 4x in 14 draws
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Quote: Originally posted by garyo1954 on May 5, 2019
The deeper I get into replicating statistics for the Texas 5/35, the more I reminded of the Law of Large Numbers.
Seems that (Law of Large Numbers) is the true obstacle in prediction, whether by computer or human logic. You can have the greatest prediction in the world for tonight's draw and the Law will not guarantee it (but it does not deny that possibility).
The Law does not say it will comply with our best laid plans. And often does not play by its own rules, telling us one thing while doing another. That's the Law of Laws.
All we know it at some point it will begin to fall in line with what it says it will do. Maybe today, maybe tomorrow, maybe next week, next month, next year.....the Law is a playful kitten with a ball of yarn. Its just happy at the moment.
The Law is a trump card. You play your best ace and she says, "Hold my beer......"
Looking at the pairs that have hit is to see the Law smirk. The consecutive pair 11,12 has not hit since the realignment of the game, 192 draws ago. And yet classical probability tell us we should see every consecutive pair hit once in 60 draws. Three rounds of 60 says that's a lie. 11,12 has lost 192 consecutive draws.
Now, on the other end of the spectrum 17,23 has hit 10 times, (about 1:20) defeating the Law, the rule, and most common sense.
So what is it that tells us we need a premium on consecutive pairs? What makes them so special?
G
The Law of Large Numbers (a.k.a. "the Central Limit Theorem") says that as the number of independent trials goes up, the variance goes down and the mean (average) of the trials will approach the expected value. It has absolutely nothing to do with with "predicting" the next drawing... something that simply cannot be done (other than cheating).
Don't waste your money on a book; you'll get zero return. Spend the same amount of money on lottery tickets, and you'll have a chance to win that money back and then some, not to mention saving yourself an awful lot of time.
For a 5/39 game, the probability of winning is 1 in 39 choose 5, which is 39!/(34! * 5!) = (39*38*37*36*35)/(5*4*3*2*1), so 1 in 575,757.
The Law of Large Numbers means that if you buy 5,757,570 tickets (ten times the odds), the number of times you win the jackpot should be fairly close to 10 (exactly 10 being the expected value). If you buy 57,575,700 tickets (100 times the odds), there will be less variance than just 10 times, so the number of times you win the jackpot should be even closer to 100. No matter how many tickets you buy, you can never guarantee that the number of times you win the jackpot will be exactly equal to the expected value. But as you buy more and more tickets, the variance gets smaller and smaller. Unfortunately the drawings are not held every second or so, so the amount of time it would take to buy 10 or 100 times the odds of winning is longer than a human being can live (aside from the fact that you would need millions of dollars to spend on this).
This is simply a mathematical exercise when it comes to one player. However, it can be observed if you consider all the ticket buyers for the lottery rather than just yourself.
If you buy just one ticket, the Law of Large Numbers has no meaning whatsoever. Your chances of winning are exactly the same regardless of what numbers you choose... 1 in 575,757. Whether certain numbers were picked more frequently or less frequently in the last 8 drawings is meaningless.
If you think that the lottery game in question is biased towards certain numbers and thus biased against other numbers, then we're not talking about the Law of Large Numbers, we're talking about loaded balls in the drum or a flawed RNG, which is a completely different thing. Even then, in order to statistically prove that such is the case and then take advantage of it, you would need to observe hundreds of thousands of drawings.
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I'm been looking over my data. Last 17 draws in the powerball, there has been 3 drawings with a single number that has hit back to back. The average for 18 draws is 5. Going to play a repeat number..I'm throwing out 66 from the last drawing..66 came up 4x in the last ten drawings..For it to come up a 5th time in eleven drawings would make it only the 4th time that's happened...So 66 is a throw out...Watch it come in..LOL!! Using numbers 2-10-25 and 67..I might play a double digit repeat...Meaning two of those from last drawing might repeat...
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Excluding these numbers 11-13-22-38-57-58...The reason being...After the last 28 draws in the powerball..These six numbers haven't hit. For one of these to hit..That would take it down to five numbers that haven't hit..There's only 14 instances where five numbers haven't hit since the new powerball format..here's the breakdown
28 drawings (140 numbers)..This is a running count of 28 drawings..So a drawing would be added and one dropped.
Haven't hit
1 number only...4x
2 numbers........2x
3 numbers.........7x
4 numbers.......12x
5 numbers........14X
6 numbers......41X
7 numbers.......50x
8 numbers.....42X
9 numbers......51x
10 numbers....54X
Side note: no additonal numbers are adding to list after tonights drawing (May22nd)...
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Quote: Originally posted by Cmoore50 on May 22, 2019
Excluding these numbers 11-13-22-38-57-58...The reason being...After the last 28 draws in the powerball..These six numbers haven't hit. For one of these to hit..That would take it down to five numbers that haven't hit..There's only 14 instances where five numbers haven't hit since the new powerball format..here's the breakdown
28 drawings (140 numbers)..This is a running count of 28 drawings..So a drawing would be added and one dropped.
Haven't hit
1 number only...4x
2 numbers........2x
3 numbers.........7x
4 numbers.......12x
5 numbers........14X
6 numbers......41X
7 numbers.......50x
8 numbers.....42X
9 numbers......51x
10 numbers....54X
Side note: no additonal numbers are adding to list after tonights drawing (May22nd)...
Cmoore50,
You're doing a wonderful job pursuing this system! I applaud you for wading through and getting the worksheets done! That in itself is no easy task and you've done a great job!
G
I'm probably here unless I'm not.
Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain.
Reno, NV United States
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Quote: Originally posted by Cmoore50 on May 22, 2019
I'm been looking over my data. Last 17 draws in the powerball, there has been 3 drawings with a single number that has hit back to back. The average for 18 draws is 5. Going to play a repeat number..I'm throwing out 66 from the last drawing..66 came up 4x in the last ten drawings..For it to come up a 5th time in eleven drawings would make it only the 4th time that's happened...So 66 is a throw out...Watch it come in..LOL!! Using numbers 2-10-25 and 67..I might play a double digit repeat...Meaning two of those from last drawing might repeat...
The conditional probability of a particular number showing up in the next drawing has nothing to do with whether it was drawn in a previous drawing. All the drawings are independent of one another, with all the winning numbers being replaced back in the drum.
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Thanks Gary..These worksheets can make your head spin for a novice like myself. Just got the book the other day. Kindle version just wasn't cutting it.
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Quote: Originally posted by Cmoore50 on May 22, 2019
Thanks Gary..These worksheets can make your head spin for a novice like myself. Just got the book the other day. Kindle version just wasn't cutting it.
The Kindle version made my head spin for days!
I think RL had to right idea......get some screen shots for reference!
I know I need to go back and read it like 47 dozen more times, but so much happening that needs attention.
I'm lucky. Never had to recover from spring storms like so many people. This year our number came up. So now I appreciate and understand the struggles other people go through.
I still think its a solid system. The fact he won a jackpot with it helps my confidence level too!
I'm probably here unless I'm not.
Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain.