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Quote: Originally posted by Sarge0202 on Jul 20, 2019
What makes you think Michigan uses AI? Why would they need to use AI? It is a simple database query to figure out unpicked set of numbers at draw time. A Random Number Generator is not AI.
Are you saying the Michigan AI is "rigged" because nobody wins it frequently, or because you haven't been wining frequently? According to their website , the odds of wining the jackpot is 1 in 10,737,573. If 4-6 million a game played, sure you will get more winners. Looking at the last game, you had about 22,000 winners total, with the 1 in 47 overall odd of winning (worst case) you have about 1 million playing, many with duplicate numbers. At 2 games a week it can take a while.
The overall odds of wining ANYTHING is 1 in 47, so basically you can easily spend 47$ to win 5$. This is not AI, this is simple math. I personally won't play the game since I don't like the odds (math).
They are not "rigging" it to get to a certain profit, they make profit EVERY GAME! Ok, I remember reading somewhere that the bigger jackpot games don't really start to profit until after a few draws, but since nobody wins that frequently (math again), it doesn't matter.
The classic lotto 47 in Michigan starts at $1 million. If it were to hypothetically hit every time, then every drawing, the lottery would need to pay out $1 million (taxes and lump sum factors aside). But when it doesn't hit and rolls, it doesn't increase by $1 million, only 100K-200K typically. So the lottery gets more profits when it doesn't hit for a long time. When I started playing years ago, commonly it would hit once every few drawings. For it to go up to even the 3 million range was uncommon. But lately, it rolls for flipping ever. Currently it is at 12.7 million. The last time it hit was over five months ago! Nearly half a year! Same thing happened in second half of 2018, it rolled forever, for months on end, it was ridiculous. And not only does this mean the lottery commission gets way more money than if it hit every few times, but they also know that when the jackpot gets so big after sitting there for half a flippin year, that the winner will likely take the lump sum.. which means that the jackpot gets cut in half.
I didn't play expecting to win big. I played because it was fun. I played while knowing other people who played, and when it would get up to say 3 million, we would go all in and jokingly compete with each other. Then when it would hit and reset, we would all basically be like aw shucks, well next time.. you know how it is. Now that is just too exhausting financially and not fun anymore. I have one friend who still plays religiously and even they are just annoyed now. They will chat me up on a Wed or Sat and they can't afford to go all out spending $50 on tickets (that's a lot for us) because it's not some special event. This thing has been rolling for 5 months now.
And so anyway, yes I do think it is rigged to not let a jackpot hit (using AI) until the commission is satisfied with the profits and/or they notice a downward trend in sales as people are getting burnt out with the current jackpot. I'm not saying it's a fact, because that would be ridiculous. It's just what I suspect is true. Governments have done way crazier and more sinister things than that.
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Quote: Originally posted by Rook on Jul 20, 2019
The classic lotto 47 in Michigan starts at $1 million. If it were to hypothetically hit every time, then every drawing, the lottery would need to pay out $1 million (taxes and lump sum factors aside). But when it doesn't hit and rolls, it doesn't increase by $1 million, only 100K-200K typically. So the lottery gets more profits when it doesn't hit for a long time. When I started playing years ago, commonly it would hit once every few drawings. For it to go up to even the 3 million range was uncommon. But lately, it rolls for flipping ever. Currently it is at 12.7 million. The last time it hit was over five months ago! Nearly half a year! Same thing happened in second half of 2018, it rolled forever, for months on end, it was ridiculous. And not only does this mean the lottery commission gets way more money than if it hit every few times, but they also know that when the jackpot gets so big after sitting there for half a flippin year, that the winner will likely take the lump sum.. which means that the jackpot gets cut in half.
I didn't play expecting to win big. I played because it was fun. I played while knowing other people who played, and when it would get up to say 3 million, we would go all in and jokingly compete with each other. Then when it would hit and reset, we would all basically be like aw shucks, well next time.. you know how it is. Now that is just too exhausting financially and not fun anymore. I have one friend who still plays religiously and even they are just annoyed now. They will chat me up on a Wed or Sat and they can't afford to go all out spending $50 on tickets (that's a lot for us) because it's not some special event. This thing has been rolling for 5 months now.
And so anyway, yes I do think it is rigged to not let a jackpot hit (using AI) until the commission is satisfied with the profits and/or they notice a downward trend in sales as people are getting burnt out with the current jackpot. I'm not saying it's a fact, because that would be ridiculous. It's just what I suspect is true. Governments have done way crazier and more sinister things than that.
They are not using AI, they are using math.
Looking at your jackpot history , it goes up starting at 50K and your last draw went up 550K$. Looks like the double play that started this year is helping the bigger jackpots. The game has always been a 6/47, so they didn't change the odds by changing the matrix like MM/PB did.
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Quote: Originally posted by Rook on Jul 20, 2019
The classic lotto 47 in Michigan starts at $1 million. If it were to hypothetically hit every time, then every drawing, the lottery would need to pay out $1 million (taxes and lump sum factors aside). But when it doesn't hit and rolls, it doesn't increase by $1 million, only 100K-200K typically. So the lottery gets more profits when it doesn't hit for a long time. When I started playing years ago, commonly it would hit once every few drawings. For it to go up to even the 3 million range was uncommon. But lately, it rolls for flipping ever. Currently it is at 12.7 million. The last time it hit was over five months ago! Nearly half a year! Same thing happened in second half of 2018, it rolled forever, for months on end, it was ridiculous. And not only does this mean the lottery commission gets way more money than if it hit every few times, but they also know that when the jackpot gets so big after sitting there for half a flippin year, that the winner will likely take the lump sum.. which means that the jackpot gets cut in half.
I didn't play expecting to win big. I played because it was fun. I played while knowing other people who played, and when it would get up to say 3 million, we would go all in and jokingly compete with each other. Then when it would hit and reset, we would all basically be like aw shucks, well next time.. you know how it is. Now that is just too exhausting financially and not fun anymore. I have one friend who still plays religiously and even they are just annoyed now. They will chat me up on a Wed or Sat and they can't afford to go all out spending $50 on tickets (that's a lot for us) because it's not some special event. This thing has been rolling for 5 months now.
And so anyway, yes I do think it is rigged to not let a jackpot hit (using AI) until the commission is satisfied with the profits and/or they notice a downward trend in sales as people are getting burnt out with the current jackpot. I'm not saying it's a fact, because that would be ridiculous. It's just what I suspect is true. Governments have done way crazier and more sinister things than that.
As Sarge said, math. Part of the reason no one is winning is because not nearly enough people are playing to cover all of the 10,737,573 possible combinations. It could be lottery fatigue like you describe or it could be that winning $500,000 (the cash option on the starting million) isn’t sexy enough when compared to games like Powerball but people just are not putting down the cash to have the jackpot won on a regular basis.
Keeping in mind that the annuity value went up $550,000 so the cash value only went up $275,000 that means they expect to sell way under the 10,737,573 number combinations to be guaranteed a winner. Depending on how much of each dollar goes to the jackpot it is more likely they expect less than 1.4 million sold.
Also, as a side note, no one needs AI to rig the jackpot as you described. It would be a relatively simple thing for the state to do, if the state was so inclined, with a few lines of code. I’m almost positive they save the AI computers to maximize the wait at the DMV.
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Quote: Originally posted by LottoLucy on Jul 21, 2019
As Sarge said, math. Part of the reason no one is winning is because not nearly enough people are playing to cover all of the 10,737,573 possible combinations. It could be lottery fatigue like you describe or it could be that winning $500,000 (the cash option on the starting million) isn’t sexy enough when compared to games like Powerball but people just are not putting down the cash to have the jackpot won on a regular basis.
Keeping in mind that the annuity value went up $550,000 so the cash value only went up $275,000 that means they expect to sell way under the 10,737,573 number combinations to be guaranteed a winner. Depending on how much of each dollar goes to the jackpot it is more likely they expect less than 1.4 million sold.
Also, as a side note, no one needs AI to rig the jackpot as you described. It would be a relatively simple thing for the state to do, if the state was so inclined, with a few lines of code. I’m almost positive they save the AI computers to maximize the wait at the DMV.
I actually think the second drawing is a a very good idea. A smaller portion will play the second drawing meaning an even LESS chance of someone winning. So the second drawing is basically "free money" to increase the pot size.
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Quote: Originally posted by Sarge0202 on Jul 21, 2019
I actually think the second drawing is a a very good idea. A smaller portion will play the second drawing meaning an even LESS chance of someone winning. So the second drawing is basically "free money" to increase the pot size.
I don’t think the double play money goes towards the jackpot. For winning 6/6, if you play double play, you win a fixed amount of $1.5 million not the advertised jackpot. It is really just a chance to play the same set of numbers in two different games packaged together. I think you’re right that it might drive sales at least at first.
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Quote: Originally posted by LottoLucy on Jul 21, 2019
As Sarge said, math. Part of the reason no one is winning is because not nearly enough people are playing to cover all of the 10,737,573 possible combinations. It could be lottery fatigue like you describe or it could be that winning $500,000 (the cash option on the starting million) isn’t sexy enough when compared to games like Powerball but people just are not putting down the cash to have the jackpot won on a regular basis.
Keeping in mind that the annuity value went up $550,000 so the cash value only went up $275,000 that means they expect to sell way under the 10,737,573 number combinations to be guaranteed a winner. Depending on how much of each dollar goes to the jackpot it is more likely they expect less than 1.4 million sold.
Also, as a side note, no one needs AI to rig the jackpot as you described. It would be a relatively simple thing for the state to do, if the state was so inclined, with a few lines of code. I’m almost positive they save the AI computers to maximize the wait at the DMV.
The cover excuse is not sustainable. IMO, its a lazy mans decree. I cant win because...A.
I cant win because B.
I cant win because C.
My "quantum" math contradicts your claim. No one needs AI to rig anything. But IMO AI will rig everything one day...if we let it.
Thats why I bought two honest lottery tickets today. Real balls.
Have you entered the place where the snow is stored?Or have you seen the storehouses of hail, Which I hold in reserve for times of trouble,for the day of battle and war? JOB 38:22 HCSB