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• garyo1954

  

  Texas
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  May 2, 2004
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  Jan 30, 2023, 1:00 am

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  In response to Stack47

  Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Jan 30, 2023

  There is a way to lower the odds of winning the jackpot by purchasing 25 tickets each with a different bonus number. You won't know which ticket has a guaranteed odds of 1:11,688,054 of winning the jackpot until after the drawing but one ticket will. 

  Regardless of the odds, buying 25 tickets all with a different set of numbers gives that player 25 chances to win and 25 times more chances than only having one ticket.

  Much clearer explanation. Hats off!
  
  G
  
  (With that I'm going to bed)
  

  I'm probably here unless I'm not.
  Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain.
• Stack47

  

  Kentucky
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  Jan 30, 2023, 3:03 am

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  In response to garyo1954

  Quote: Originally posted by garyo1954 on Jan 30, 2023

  Maybe if you took some reading comprehension, you could understand what is being said.
  
  You're only right if you could compare all 50 sets vs the winning set. You can't.
  It's one set to one set.
  
  Or tell us the last time you went in with a winning ticket and got paid for having a number on one line, a number on another, and another number on another?
  
  I'll allow that you can mathematically state you reduced the odds.
  But you haven't for any one set. And we're back to one set to one set, not 50 to one.
  
  Read this then go tell your teacher to help you with reading comprehension as well.
  
  YOUR CHOICE.
  
  G

  "It's one set to one set."

  The last thing the lotteries want is their players "understanding how probabilities work". Their banking on players ignoring the fact whether they buy 2 unique tickets or 1000, only one of those tickets can win the jackpot. It doesn't take a math degree from MIT to understand buying multiple tickets gives players more chances to win. Whether or not they know only one of those chances can in fact win the jackpot is irrelevant.

  After a few years of asking, I still wasn't told what types of patterns I'm suppose to look for to help them filter a 25 number wheel. And now we have someone saying we don't "understand how probabilities work" in a game where the odds against winning seven bucks is 1:701.

  "When will we ever learn?"
• Stat$talker

  

  700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
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  Jan 30, 2023, 4:12 am

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  In response to cottoneyedjoe

  Quote: Originally posted by cottoneyedjoe on Jan 30, 2023

  On Lottery Post you will find people who vaguely understand that the probability of winning Pick 3 Straight with a single ticket is 1/1000, and for some reason they also think the probability of winning with 2 tickets is 1/999, and with 3 tickets it's 1/998, and with 4 tickets it's 1/997, etc. Impossible to reason with these people. Any mathematical explanation goes over their heads. They'll ask for a source for 1+1=2. I just ignore them unless they're entertaining, like Stat$.

  "I just ignore them unless they're entertaining, like Stat$".

                       I saw that..!!

  Noo, You engage ME, cauze ya wanna go down in History hangin onto da cyber-coattail of a Once -in -a-Lifetime Pioneer.!
• Stack47

  

  Kentucky
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  February 14, 2006
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  Jan 30, 2023, 5:31 pm

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  While we're on the subject of "the more tickets you buy, the greater your chances of winning", it's reasonable for one player to purchase 1000 PB tickets and easy for a group. Using the "number of the total outcomes divided by the number of chances" method, the odds are reduced to 1:292,201.

  But we need the probability before determining the odds of an event occurring. And despite the opinion that "95% of the people on this site do not understand how probabilities work",  the formula is simple. It's the number of chances (1000) divided by the total number of outcomes (292 million). Doing the math, there is a 0.0000003422% probability that one of the 1000 tickets will win the jackpot. Odds of 1:292,201 sure look much better, but the actual probability tells a much different story.

  For those relying on odds, 1000 tickets can reduce the odds to 1:11,688 by playing each of the 25 bonus numbers 40 times and with a minimum return of $160. For the probability people, there is a 0.000008558% probability of one of those 40 tickets winning the jackpot. The bad news is by default, 960 of those 1000 tickets have no chance of winning the jackpot.

  Hopefully players won't fool themselves by ignoring the fact 999 of the 1000 have no chance of winning the jackpot.

  "When will we ever learn?"
• winoneday

  

  Canada
  Member #154,373
  April 14, 2014
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  Jan 30, 2023, 5:38 pm

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  In response to Stack47

  Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Jan 30, 2023

  While we're on the subject of "the more tickets you buy, the greater your chances of winning", it's reasonable for one player to purchase 1000 PB tickets and easy for a group. Using the "number of the total outcomes divided by the number of chances" method, the odds are reduced to 1:292,201.

  But we need the probability before determining the odds of an event occurring. And despite the opinion that "95% of the people on this site do not understand how probabilities work",  the formula is simple. It's the number of chances (1000) divided by the total number of outcomes (292 million). Doing the math, there is a 0.0000003422% probability that one of the 1000 tickets will win the jackpot. Odds of 1:292,201 sure look much better, but the actual probability tells a much different story.

  For those relying on odds, 1000 tickets can reduce the odds to 1:11,688 by playing each of the 25 bonus numbers 40 times and with a minimum return of $160. For the probability people, there is a 0.000008558% probability of one of those 40 tickets winning the jackpot. The bad news is by default, 960 of those 1000 tickets have no chance of winning the jackpot.

  Hopefully players won't fool themselves by ignoring the fact 999 of the 1000 have no chance of winning the jackpot.

  Thank you for providing clear and convincing evidence you are included in the group of people on this site that do not understand how probabilities work.

  As a member of the 95% group, you will never be lonely.
• Artist77

  

  United States
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  Jan 30, 2023, 6:40 pm

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  In response to winoneday

  Quote: Originally posted by winoneday on Jan 30, 2023

  Thank you for providing clear and convincing evidence you are included in the group of people on this site that do not understand how probabilities work.

  As a member of the 95% group, you will never be lonely.

  Wow. That is for certain.  Todd recently explained all of this again but no long term lp member should think 1000 tickets reduce the odds to that level. Nonsense.

  
• Stat$talker

  

  700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
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  Jan 30, 2023, 6:52 pm

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    Whut in da heck haz happened to common sense in diz Werld?...

  Real critical reazoning iz needed heaa...cauze

  "- Whut we have heeaa,.. iz a Failya to Communicate"

                        ( Cool Hand Luke )
• garyo1954

  

  Texas
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  May 2, 2004
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  Jan 30, 2023, 11:05 pm

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  Rather than going back and forth, I went to Quora and searched what mathematicians, statisticians, MBAs, etc., had to say.
  The question was, "How doesn’t buying two lottery tickets double my chance of winning the lottery, even if that chance is still minuscule?" (not quite the same as reducing the odds, here we're talking about doubling your chances) You'll see some explain you can't reduce the odds, you can only increase your chances.
  
  Here we go:
  
  

  Aaron Brown
  MBA in Finance & Statistics (academic discipline), The University of Chicago Booth School of Business - If you buy two tickets with different numbers, you double your chances of winning a single jackpot. Your chance of winning any prize at all goes up by slightly less than a factor of two.

  
  Brian Williams KY-LEXINGTON
  Studied Mathematics - If we’re talking about something like the Powerball lottery where there is no limit on the number of tickets sold, and the winner is decided by matching all the numbers that are drawn, then buying two tickets (with different sets of numbers) does double your chance of winning. But the odds are so long that even doubling your odds doesn’t do much to move your individual odds any meaningful distance from zero. The odds of winning the Powerball, for example, are 1 in 292,201,338. That about 3.4 x 10^(-9). If you buy two tickets your odds are 6.8 x 10^(-9).

  
  Larry Kessler
  MBA from UH Bauer College of Business - It does. In Texas, the lotto lets you pick 6 numbers between 1 and 54. Buying two tickets doubles your odds of winning from 1 in 18,595,558,800 to a whopping 2 in 18,595,558,800.

  
  Bill Drake
  MS (ABD) in Anthropology & Statistics (academic discipline), University of Cincinnati - Nope. Your chances are always 50/50. You win or you don’t. Now, the odds may change a little with multiple tickets but your chances remain the same. 50/50.

  Terry Dickinson - If you have 2 different sets of numbers it does mathematically halve your odds, but, I look at it like this: if there are 1 million tickets buying one means you have 999,999 chances to lose if you buy 2 you have 999,998 chances to lose, not a great improvement.

  David Vanderschel
  PhD in Mathematics & Physics, Rice - Yes. It also doubles what you are paying for your doubled chance.

  Larry Nutter
  Former Mental Health Evaluator at University of Colorado Hospital - You have hit the correct answer to your question within your question. Your chance of winning Powerball with each ticket is 292 million to one. If you purchase 50 tickets, it does not substantially improve your chance of winning. 
  
  And finally, a man after my own heart......
  
  Stefan Gebhardt
  Studied at Munich University of Applied Sciences - Statistically it's true, in reality it isn't. Let me explain.

  Statistically if the chance of winning is 1 in 1 million, and you buy two tickets, it's now 2 in 1 million. That's double the odds of course. But odds aren't the same as actual chance of winning.

  Statistically you can also say that 2 in 1 million is the same as 1 in 500,000. That's true mathematically, but not in reality. By buying a second lottery ticket you haven't eliminated 500,000 possibilities.

  1 in a million means 999,999 chances of being wrong. Two in a million means 999,998 chances of being wrong. It does not mean suddenly 499,999 chances of being wrong. So for lotteries statistics are misleading.

  If you buy 1,000 tickets you still have 999,000 chances of being wrong, while people assume that it's the same as 1 in 1,000, so only 999 chances of being wrong. It isn't. But that's why lotteries make so much money.
  
  So do these highly educated math people need math courses too?
  

   
  G

  I'm probably here unless I'm not.
  Dreaming would be a perfectly useless function if it's only purpose was to entertain.
• Stack47

  

  Kentucky
  United States
  Member #32,651
  February 14, 2006
  10,301 Posts
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  Jan 30, 2023, 11:44 pm

  ▲▼
  In response to garyo1954

  Quote: Originally posted by garyo1954 on Jan 30, 2023

  Rather than going back and forth, I went to Quora and searched what mathematicians, statisticians, MBAs, etc., had to say.
  The question was, "How doesn’t buying two lottery tickets double my chance of winning the lottery, even if that chance is still minuscule?" (not quite the same as reducing the odds, here we're talking about doubling your chances) You'll see some explain you can't reduce the odds, you can only increase your chances.
  
  Here we go:
  
  

  Aaron Brown
  MBA in Finance & Statistics (academic discipline), The University of Chicago Booth School of Business - If you buy two tickets with different numbers, you double your chances of winning a single jackpot. Your chance of winning any prize at all goes up by slightly less than a factor of two.

  
  Brian Williams KY-LEXINGTON
  Studied Mathematics - If we’re talking about something like the Powerball lottery where there is no limit on the number of tickets sold, and the winner is decided by matching all the numbers that are drawn, then buying two tickets (with different sets of numbers) does double your chance of winning. But the odds are so long that even doubling your odds doesn’t do much to move your individual odds any meaningful distance from zero. The odds of winning the Powerball, for example, are 1 in 292,201,338. That about 3.4 x 10^(-9). If you buy two tickets your odds are 6.8 x 10^(-9).

  
  Larry Kessler
  MBA from UH Bauer College of Business - It does. In Texas, the lotto lets you pick 6 numbers between 1 and 54. Buying two tickets doubles your odds of winning from 1 in 18,595,558,800 to a whopping 2 in 18,595,558,800.

  
  Bill Drake
  MS (ABD) in Anthropology & Statistics (academic discipline), University of Cincinnati - Nope. Your chances are always 50/50. You win or you don’t. Now, the odds may change a little with multiple tickets but your chances remain the same. 50/50.

  Terry Dickinson - If you have 2 different sets of numbers it does mathematically halve your odds, but, I look at it like this: if there are 1 million tickets buying one means you have 999,999 chances to lose if you buy 2 you have 999,998 chances to lose, not a great improvement.

  David Vanderschel
  PhD in Mathematics & Physics, Rice - Yes. It also doubles what you are paying for your doubled chance.

  Larry Nutter
  Former Mental Health Evaluator at University of Colorado Hospital - You have hit the correct answer to your question within your question. Your chance of winning Powerball with each ticket is 292 million to one. If you purchase 50 tickets, it does not substantially improve your chance of winning. 
  
  And finally, a man after my own heart......
  
  Stefan Gebhardt
  Studied at Munich University of Applied Sciences - Statistically it's true, in reality it isn't. Let me explain.

  Statistically if the chance of winning is 1 in 1 million, and you buy two tickets, it's now 2 in 1 million. That's double the odds of course. But odds aren't the same as actual chance of winning.

  Statistically you can also say that 2 in 1 million is the same as 1 in 500,000. That's true mathematically, but not in reality. By buying a second lottery ticket you haven't eliminated 500,000 possibilities.

  1 in a million means 999,999 chances of being wrong. Two in a million means 999,998 chances of being wrong. It does not mean suddenly 499,999 chances of being wrong. So for lotteries statistics are misleading.

  If you buy 1,000 tickets you still have 999,000 chances of being wrong, while people assume that it's the same as 1 in 1,000, so only 999 chances of being wrong. It isn't. But that's why lotteries make so much money.
  
  So do these highly educated math people need math courses too?
  

   
  G

  "So for lotteries statistics are misleading"

  Even if a PB ad said "You'll need to purchase almost 3 million tickets just to get a 1% chance of winning the jackpot", people would still line up to buy tickets.

  IMO, the real misleading stats are the advertised jackpots. In most states the winner won't collect 60% of the cash value after taxes and even if someone wants to wait 29 years to collect that will be less than 60% where state taxes apply.

  "So do these highly educated math people need math courses too?"

  At least two people here are saying they need refresher courses, but neither has offered anything to prove those experts wrong.

  Great information, Gary!

  "When will we ever learn?"
• Stack47

  

  Kentucky
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  Jan 30, 2023, 11:49 pm

  ▲▼
  In response to Stat$talker

  Quote: Originally posted by Stat$talker on Jan 30, 2023

    Whut in da heck haz happened to common sense in diz Werld?...

  Real critical reazoning iz needed heaa...cauze

  "- Whut we have heeaa,.. iz a Failya to Communicate"

                        ( Cool Hand Luke )

  True or false,

  Probability is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes?

  "When will we ever learn?"
• Stack47

  

  Kentucky
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  February 14, 2006
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  Jan 30, 2023, 11:55 pm

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  In response to Artist77

  Quote: Originally posted by Artist77 on Jan 30, 2023

  Wow. That is for certain.  Todd recently explained all of this again but no long term lp member should think 1000 tickets reduce the odds to that level. Nonsense.

  Without explaining why my math is wrong, you must be one of the "over 95% of the people on this site do not understand how probabilities work"

  "When will we ever learn?"
• BobP

  

  Dump Water Florida
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  June 5, 2002
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  Jan 31, 2023, 1:41 am

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  Seen to recall, back when we had state games giving two tickets for a dollar, they would give the odds per dollar as half what the odds would be at a dollar per ticket.   Suppose they ought to know or paid someone to know.   Not the hill I'm planning to die on, just saying. 
  
  Bob
• dr san

  

  bgonçalves
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  June 9, 2010
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  Jan 31, 2023, 2:16 am

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  mathematicians don't help you win a big lottery prize
• Stat$talker

  

  700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
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  September 1, 2019
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  Jan 31, 2023, 3:22 am

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  In response to Stack47

  Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Jan 30, 2023

  True or false,

  Probability is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes?

  True, that iz the Clinical definition of the concept of Probability..

  But, whut'z not being properly done iz...framing this particular issue at hand..IMO

  That'z why I often suggest stickin one'z head in a good book on Probability...or study the Great Mathematical Masterz of Old..
• Stat$talker

  

  700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
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  Member #200,642
  September 1, 2019
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  Jan 31, 2023, 3:56 am

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  In response to dr san

  Quote: Originally posted by dr san on Jan 31, 2023

  mathematicians don't help you win a big lottery prize

                          Riiight Doc..!

                  It'z the Math that duzz..!!