hypersoniq's Blog

interesting little experiment, works just like VB6 in that a call to RND(-1) always starts you at the same place in the list, brings up some interesting questions...

1.) does their RNG continue along the same path (no RNG(-1) call)?

2.) does the date play a factor?< RANDOMIZE(NOW()) vs. RANDOMIZE(TIMER) >

3.) are they using hardware sources for entropy or does the state's choice of COBOL as a programming language play any type of contributing factor?

I whipped up a userForm to play with the RNG in excel a bit. clicking the button initialized a variable to TIMER, printed it in a textbox, printed contents of (NOW()) in a second text box, and finally did another variable as TIMER and printed out the results in a third text box... just to see the amount of time it takes to perform the calculations.

they (microsoft) say that TIMER returns a single precision number that counts the number of seconds elapsed since midnight...

by program output, right now, TIMER = 75538.98 (9:00 PM)

by calculation, 9:00 PM in seconds since midnight = 76000 (guess I pushed GO a bit quick, but it is in the ballpark)

PA begins the RNG festivities at "approximately 1:10 PM" (results not till 1:35PM, and are first fed into an animation program... I don't like the intermediate step there)

1:10 PM = 47400 seconds since midnight, hence TIMER = approx. 47400.00

so I guess the first step is to run a "seed sweep", looking for values for RANDOMIZE that will produce an INT ((10-1+1)*RND+1) = chosen result first digit of the mid-day game (or INT((1000-1+1)*RND+1) for pick 3 at once and INT((10000-1+1)*RND+1) for pick4 at once.)................ and now I have a central number to begin with... 47400  ;-)

now, how far to go to hit "approximately 1:10PM"? 5 minute window? 10 minute window? and at what interval? .01 seconds? .001 seconds?

then, does the list need to be reset with each iteration?

first I will list a few numbers, try to match by seed sweep, which seeds (if any) can correctly pick a few in a row WITHOUT the RND(-1) call at the start. Now, how many draws? back 10? 100? 1,000? all of 'em?

so many questions, and the only answers will be empirical...

Plans finalizing for the excel RNG synch project...

1). 4 identical workbooks will be maintained, one that generates ONE 3 digit pick, one that generates a sequence of 3 one digit picks, one that generates ONE 4 digit pick and finally, one that generates a sequence of 4 one digit picks.

2.) sequence of events/experiments...

>>>> A.) Backsolving for the common seeds using past draw history.

>>>>B.) Generating picks with the seed results of backsolving. "paper play" the results for a week without betting.

>>>>C.) Live Bet tests. $14 is set aside for a full week test of $1 bets on the one pick per day for the mid-day games.

>>>>D.) 30 day accuracy tracking. IF the $14 nets a profit, then this will also be a live-bet test... otherwise just on paper... TOTAL out of pocket budget is $14.

>>>>E.) Operation Roll-Out. IF the 30-day test results in better than average hit ratio, I start posting my picks on the LP. IF I hit even once during any phase of testing (all straight bets, even one 3-digit hit is $500) I am going to pick up an LP platinum membership!

If the backsolving fails, so does the system and the $14 can go instead to PB and the rest of the events won't happen. regardless of the accuracy, anything better than average will get posts to the LP... why? to send the message to the multi-state games that they better NEVER even consider going to an RNG for number selection.

IF you see a pick from me in the 3/4 predictions page, then you know the game is on. IF you see my membership upgraded to platinum, then you know the pre-tests are going good.

Also, I will be documenting the steps... IF it works in PA, the files will be zipped up along with instructions for carrying out the same experiment in ALL states that dare to RNG and distributed FREELY to whoever wants them... but only IF it works... it may never get past backsolving.

I have already written a letter to PA asking that they use ball machines for the midday, no response... I bet THIS will get their attention... IF it works.

Happy Thanksgiving all!

CAD chart that had the error is now 100% fixed and has the draw connector lines in place. Trig formulas to capture the line length data and angular measurements draw-to-draw are also complete.

Now, what can I do with that data? Still pondering the possibilities... remembering that this is ONLY PB data (no white ball system yet). it's a 1:42 game at this point.

considering that I am still looking primarily outside the boxhere are some scenarios/ideas for further development...

1. 3 draws form a triangle (drawA to drawB is a line, drawB to drawC is a line and the third line comes from connecting drawA to drawC), therefore triangles must be categorized, for example isosceles, scalene, right...

2. center points can be calculated for triangles, this needs to be done, and those centers need to be connected. this needs to get on the spreadsheet.

3. sweep angles need to be examined to check for any patterns.

4. a list of posible fits need to be extracted using the line from the last 2 draws... then the third point should be (hopefully) a number that can be solved for and resolved into a playable number (by grid position)

this triangle pattern thing should overcome the problem with straight number announcers never announcing the same thing. Even if at first only 5 or so possible triangle patterns emerge, as long as they contain the winners then further refinement can be made.

I now have the easy stuff done and now is when the math gets funky, so further development will be slow and backtest algorithms need to be worked out at each step (rather than after the fact, which was always my downfall)

I feel the need to get back into an Excel-based system for dealing with the PA Mid-Day drawings...
I don't play them, and don't plan on it unless backtesting shows success, but I am more interested in seeing if any of my rusty VB skills can be carried over into Excel's built-in VBA (something I can trudge through, but not fluently).

Simple Plan

Objective... Beat the PA mid-day computerized pick3/pick4, not talking reducing number pools or trapping, but really beating them at their own game using seed manipulation and some keen observation and testing to "synchronize" (props to GURU for the original idea) the Excel RNG with PA's RNG.

Requirements...
1.) Use ONLY Excel, since that is something more readily available should this become a group project. (any hardy souls with either excel2000 or excel2002 (XP) feel free to jump right in)
2.) HEAVILY documented VBA code. (proper comments and descriptive component names)
3.) Try and document every possible scenario (RNG a 3/4 digit number in one shot vs. RNG 1 number 3/4 times with a shift in the time as the seed modifier)

almost forgot saturday's pleasant surprise... matched the 17, 37 and 41  with the powerplay for a cool $28.

given my 1 ticket per draw habbit, that's 14 free draws ;-) (7 "bye weeks" courtesy of the MUSL... 'bout time)

while performing some line drawing operations, I noticed I skipped a grid rowabout 1/3 down, leaving me to re-enter 2/3 of the data (easy to do by changing y values in line endpoint data, but time-consuming!)

in the first 1/3, I have begun to create the triangles defined  by each set of 3 numbers. (alternating red and yellow lines that connect one draw with the draw 2 draws back) This produces the detailed visual of Chief's BellCurve that I was hoping for.

once rework is done to fix my foul-up, the LONG and painstaking search for indicators will begin... could take a long time... but at least I got it started.

glad to be back in the R&D mode !

 

Chief was very active in the PB/MM hunt. It was there he explained to myself and countless others the wicked simplicity of his excel based "Bell Curve". (search the JP forum and see for yourself)
To date that was the only system in excel that I have tried that showed promise. He was always entertaining and jumped right in when someone put up a PB "Challenge", or more often, just to post his picks. Always entertaining posts and exposure to some really cool native American art are the things I will remember right up there with the bell curve.

I offer the sincerest condolences to his family.

I also hope his family can continue to pursue his dream of an RV park in Virginia ( http://www.cherokeeruncamp.com/ ).

I'm still in shock...

Rest in Peace Ken (kbcherokee) B., you WILL be missed and you WILL be remembered...

I don't really even play the 3/4/cash5/match6/lucky4life... just pb, BUT...

anyone interested in brainstorming and collaborating on some new ideas to reverse-solve the RNG system PA is using for the computerized day draws?

just curious...

If so, we can develop out in the open in the lottery systems thread ;-)

draw to draw lines have now been done, also an excel sheet has been created that lists date, draw number, powerball number, vector (SW/S/SE), magnitude (length), line angle with respect to horizontal & line angle with respect to vertical.

 

rather than go through the rigors of hand-dimensioning each individual line, I cooked up 2 excel formulae to do that for me... using trig (arctangent) and learned something about excel... all excel trig functions operate in Radians, not Degrees, which is what I wanted... but functions exist that convert, also multiplying by (180/pi) does the conversion quicker.

I hand-dimensioned about 20 test points to be sure the excel data is valid and gels with the CAD data... it does. but this is just draw to draw for now, there is more that I will need to gather, but I need to bone up on some more trig to figure out what.

 

for those hardy souls still playing the home game, the excel formulae look like this...

for H Angle (Horizontal sweep)

=IF(D3="SE",(ATAN(1/E3)*180/PI()),IF(D3="SW",(-1*(ATAN(1/E3)*180/PI())),0))

for V Angle (Vertical Sweep * note the easier formula that is derived from the H Angle)

=IF(D3="SE",90-F3,IF(D3="SW",(-90-F3),0))

now that the grid is complete, time to add lines connecting the points that represent the drawn numbers.
In order to make validation easier, the lines are alternately green and blue. I have about 80 in place, there are 300+, so it may take awhile.
no text elements on the screen, just points inside squares... I can tell the number based on the X,Y value of the crosshairs... gotta love AutoCAD!

the road ahead...

1. raw data gathering (angles, both acute and complimentary obtuse for each set of 3 numbers... and also deviance from both horizontal and vertical of each pair of drawn numbers) this will go, most likely as decimal degrees (rather than degree/min/sec or radians) into an excel sheet.

2. "needle in the haystack search" looking for what formula or measurement could possibly be used to zero in on draws based on past draws... same deal as any number system, only with angles. this is the search for rules-of-thumb.

3. search for activity that precedes palindrome draws (example... 05-17-28-17-05 over 5 draws... has happened in PB red ball data more than once, though usually presents as a shorter chain such as 15-41-15)

4. announcers and the exhaustive search for what, if anything, they are trying to "announce".

5. many more tests yet to be determined.

First step conquered in the quest to mis-apply trigonometry/geometry and search for red ball patterns using precise angular measurements.



a very helpful person gave me code to generate the main analysis grid, I'll pass it along to anyone playing along at home...



(((autoLISP routine for grid generation--- 42 squares representing the powerball numbers x 500 draws [old matrix data still good for PB red ball + room to work.])))

<<< written for AutoCAD 2004 >>>

-----------------------begin code----------------------------------

(defun c:grd (/ e1 e2 ss)

(command "rectang" '(0 0) '(1 1))

(setq e1 (entlast))

(setq ss (ssadd))

(ssadd e1 ss)

(command "point" '(0.5 0.5))

(setq e2 (entlast))

(ssadd e2 ss)

(command "-array" ss "" "r" 500 42 1 1)

)

-----------------------end code-------------------------------------



I don't even know what I am looking for, so I have no helpful hints to pass on at this time, except to re-iterate that the layout is very similar to kbcherokee's bell curve system posted many moons ago over in the jackpot system threads. His used excel, My adventure will plot lines between connecting draws, and I will be searching for ANY indicators or "rules-of-thumb" that will aid in determining the next powerball... regardless of how goofy I think they might sound at the time. I know that my initial search will be for precursors of palindromes and the puzzling question of why announcers don't seem to work.



As before, I tend to develop out in the open and welcome comments/corrections/improvements.



I also don't plan on pursuing this for the white ball data unless I dig up some real gold in the red balls, so I am not holding myself to any timetable ;-)



continued good luck all !

I think I will ramp up to full line predictions over time, right now I am concentrating 100% on picking the red ball... in this way it stays simple... also if I can't make progress in the 1:42 odds there's really no point at moving on to the 1:140,000,000 odds.

First on the chopping block is the AutoCAD system. this is a much more precise version of the bell curve, where angles will have accurate measurements and I will intentionally mis-apply trig formulas on the resultant angles rather than the numbers themselves... I have tried just about every system that uses actual numbers and came up dry, perhaps those elusive number patterns would be more easily seen in a different context... one immediate benefit is forcing myself to learn LISP (AutoCAD macro programming) to generate the grid because it is tedious to do by hand one line at a time.

the points of interest will be... angle formed from draw to draw, area of the triangle formed by connecting the 2 angles from 3 consecutive draws, incidence and reflection of announcers... also, overall trends, angles formed between individual number skips, palindrome precursors... should be a blast... and I will need to master that LISP language to move into the white ball arena (no way to do that by hand, especially playing out possibilities such as each number separate by position and draw vs. sort order).

I see a long devel cycle, so in parallel development will be the conversion of the red ball data into musical notes across 3 and 1/2 octaves. this introduces a whole new area of analysis with all new tools and challenges.

I am psyched up for this round of experimentation... taking the numbers out of number crunching ;-)

well, no more huge jackpot. perfect time to whip up another system and begin the long tedious task of coding and backtesting... if I only had a new direction...

my criteria still remains the same...

1. no trapping (too expensive as a number selection technique), unless that trapping is further refined

2. no mixing matrices (5/55 is new but 1/42 is over 300 draws and still valid)

3. end result not to exceed one and only one pick (one $2 ticket, gotta power up)

4. raw statistics are out, I have done them to death with no positive results.

I already use the QP in lieu of a better system so it won't change my purchasing at all, just something about picking my own line that I have missed the last year or so...

but I'm not jumping into anything quickly. I forsee a multi-level system, using only components that show promise at each stage... right now I only have one idea for the first component, and that would be the "bell curve " (kbcherokee system in excel, only moved to AutoCAD grid for accurate angles). I will probably start  with just the powerball itself and eventually add in the white balls...

when? don't know... why? because one QP is economical but no fun... apparently when it comes to QP's, I'm apparently not "meant to" win :-(

this time I am embracing accidental results and looking for "dumb luck" by the intentional mis-application of methods having nothing to do with more traditional prediction and trapping... the more outlandish the concept, the more fun it will be... I'm breaking into such diverse areas as trigonometry, analytic geometry (for bell curve analysis) and mis-applied calculus.

I am hoping to develop a system that works by accident. I have already tried going down the routes deemed "mainstream", systems for numbers that most would agree have merit... what I am contemplating would not really make any sense to the seasoned number cruncher... I have given the state a chance for long enough to pick my one line... even tho I used to pick my own with roughtly the same results... it's the whole process that makes it enjoyable... QP takes out the fun factor.

I may just break down and revisit all of the goofy powerball ideas I have ever had...

here's a classic

take the 42 powerball numbers and convert them to MIDI notes, with 12 classic notes per scale, that gives 3 and a half octaves... maybe if I can't see something right in front of my face I might be able to hear it (20 years with a guitar helps keep your ears perked)...

I could have kept that one a secret because it really has no merit, right?

how about YOUR crazy ideas? let's hear 'em...

And here it is, the dawning of a new powerball era... record jackpots, bumped up second tiers, second tier rolldowns and me without a system.

I currently use one QP per draw... gave up on tracking when they up and changed the matrix on us.

draw number 14 of the 5/55+1/42 is in the record books and the leaders are #8 (4 hits) and #50 (7 hits... HOT HOT HOT!). in the red ball "fishtank" #17 already made a repeat appearance... as a palindrome around the focal point number 28.

what does it all mean? I don't know and find no motivation to pursue it any further. perhaps a completely new and off the wall direction, but I am fresh out of ideas. last time the powerplay was 3 I hit 1+1 on my one QP for $12... no extra hits since and now I am back to shelling out my own $2 (gotta go P-Play for sure).

my excel sheet that breaks down what I would do with a win is so tuned, it's no longer fun to play with... where is the inspiration? who will be the next guru? his bait-and-switch lottosynch concept kept me entertained in VB6 and RNG theory for weeks, months even! my biggest downfall is that I backtest... can't even fool myself :-(

between false hope and no hope, I preferred a bit o'false hope and a good dose of common sense to the bleak realization that what I tried to do cannot be done by me.... (and thus far anyone else either)

where is the entertainment of seeing someone like goose defend his bad math to his ultimate banishment? even debunking systems was fun.

who holds the key to the next great wild goose chase? where is the next crazy math anomaly? I need a muse!

As drawing #266 goes in the MUSL powerball history books (266@ 5/52 + 1/42) the end of all that gathered data looms nearer. the last draw that keeps the current matrix data relevant is set for 8/27/2005... draw #300.

After that, it becomes 5/55 + 1/42. Time to pull out all the stops, crunch some numbers and scramble to fix errors... 127 million combos and we only get to see 300 of them... kinda makes the chase seem even more pointless.

Come the first draw of the new matrix, I am done... going to adopt the VisionDude one quickpick system and find another hobby (I'm thinking Radio Controlled Airplanes since it's safe to stick a fork in the dream of ever flying a real plane). Maybe I'll try to get another band started (not easy to find 30-40 yr. old musicians wanting to start a punk band) but I'll be archiving the spreadsheets for good by september... I tried, I failed.... but at least I tried, and had fun doing it.

WHY did they have to jump the gun and tamper with the matrix because of a short-term spike in winners?

good luck to everyone... 34 draws left, let's beat it before then!