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$$ Beat The Pick 3 Odds $$

Last post 3 months ago by Acheron. 34 replies.

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Texas MadMan's avatar - LottoBalls
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Posted: July 21, 2008, 12:39 pm - IP Logged Bottom

Okay, pick 3 players, here is my method to effectively beating the odds at pick 3.

First some info:

This method is for BOX hits only.

We know that out of the 1000 possible combinations for pick 3 720 of them are singles (72%).

If you look at the results for your state you will see that over the long run singles are drawn pretty close to that percentage.  Here's the percentages of drawings for Texas over the last year that were singles:

day draw = 75.2%

night draw = 69.5%

Now, I pick 5 numbers and place them into this 10 line wheel:

 

A B C D E
BOX WHEEL
A B C     A B C
A   C D   A C D
A     D E A D E
A B   D   A B D
A B     E A B E
A   C   E A C E
  B C D   B C D
  B C   E B C E
    C D E C D E
  B   D E B D E

 

This gives us every possible BOX combination for the five numbers I wheeled.  Now if a single is drawn, I have a 50% chance of having the correct numbers in the wheel (because I picked 5 of 10).

Now for the math:

If I play .50 per line that equals a $5 bet.  If I hit a BOX Texas pays me $40.  So, I only need to hit a BOX 1 out of every 8 draws to break even on my bet.  Since I have a 50% chance 72% of the time that works out to a 36% shot for each draw (slightly better than 1 in 3).  So, if I use this method over a long run, I "statistically" have a 1 in 3 shot of hitting a box and I only need to do it better than 1 in 8 to be profitable.

 

That's my method.  It may have been discussed previously on Lottery Post........I didn't wade through a bunch of searched posts to see.  You're not gonna get rich using this method, but it will effectively put the odds in your favor.  If you're a poker player (I LOVE POKER), it's equivalent to having good "pot odds".  Feel free to comment, or better yet, post your ideas on picking the 5 numbers to wheel.  Have fun and GOOD LUCK!

-Texas Madman

txpolo's avatar - animaniacs16
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Posted: July 21, 2008, 1:46 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

Thanks Texas Madman

 BananaWTG all Winner$. Hyper

 

 

Texas MadMan's avatar - LottoBalls
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Posted: July 21, 2008, 1:47 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

Thanks Texas Madman

You're welcome!

LAVERNE MALONEY's avatar - strawberry
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Posted: July 21, 2008, 2:02 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

Thanks for sharing your method.

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rcbbuckeye's avatar - 8ball
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Posted: July 21, 2008, 2:17 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

Hey Tex,

I did this a couple years ago when I played ALOT of $ on P3. About the best I could do was almost..... break even. I tried BobP's double strategy that you can find on Lotto Logix, and I tried what you described. Wheeling 5 numbers seems like it's an almost sure thing, but I never could hit once in eight draws. I always ended up in the red. I guess if you are really good at picking the right 5 numbers to wheel, you can come out ahead, but I decided it was too much work for too little $. I even went a step further and wheeled 6 numbers for 20 combos, and I still struggled to hit enough times. The problem is that hitting $40 just doesn't quite pay enough to make it profitable, (I imagine the state figured that out too).

I only play sporadically now, and I think if I ever play P3 every day again, I would play the number that has hit the most during the game's history for a buck a day. There are 313 draws (314 this year) a year. Play $1 straight each day on that one number, (for the evening draw 543, 13 hits in that order). If it comes in once, you've made a $186 profit on the game for the year. Frankly, I believe if you make a profit of any kind in a lottery, you done good.

Good luck... I really do hope you find that "holy grail" for P3.

Ron

Texas MadMan's avatar - LottoBalls
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Posted: July 21, 2008, 2:20 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

Hey Tex,

I did this a couple years ago when I played ALOT of $ on P3. About the best I could do was almost..... break even. I tried BobP's double strategy that you can find on Lotto Logix, and I tried what you described. Wheeling 5 numbers seems like it's an almost sure thing, but I never could hit once in eight draws. I always ended up in the red. I guess if you are really good at picking the right 5 numbers to wheel, you can come out ahead, but I decided it was too much work for too little $. I even went a step further and wheeled 6 numbers for 20 combos, and I still struggled to hit enough times. The problem is that hitting $40 just doesn't quite pay enough to make it profitable, (I imagine the state figured that out too).

I only play sporadically now, and I think if I ever play P3 every day again, I would play the number that has hit the most during the game's history for a buck a day. There are 313 draws (314 this year) a year. Play $1 straight each day on that one number, (for the evening draw 543, 13 hits in that order). If it comes in once, you've made a $186 profit on the game for the year. Frankly, I believe if you make a profit of any kind in a lottery, you done good.

Good luck... I really do hope you find that "holy grail" for P3.

Ron

Yeah, in the end it all comes down to luck.  I'm experimenting with some backtesting to see how the results come out if I were to populate my wheel with the top 5 hit digits over the previous 20 draws, 30 draws, 50 draws, and so on.  Maybe it's even best just to pick five good digits and play them every draw with the wheel. 

CCHS13's avatar - chi jpeg
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Posted: July 21, 2008, 2:49 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

Online payouts are almost doubleWink

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Todd's avatar - Cylon 2
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Posted: July 21, 2008, 10:14 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

<Moved to Lottery Systems forum>

Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.

Idesire$'s avatar - avatar 5688
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Posted: July 21, 2008, 11:09 pm - IP Logged Bottom Top

Great info will try thanks.

DanceMrs.D

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Posted: July 22, 2008, 7:58 am - IP Logged Bottom Top

Hello Tex,

Thanks for sharing your method, sure wheeling give us a bit edge, now i have a different method wheeling 10 numbers to cover ALL:

this is my method iam testing now:

take any state and wheel all the 10 digits but in a set of pairs, like this:

01  - 23- 45-  67-  89

now these five pairs each wheeled with ALL

eg:01   012- 013 -014 -015- 016 -017- 018- 019 (8 wheels  excluding doubles and triples)

 

here excluding 010 and 011

so each pair wheeled 8 times= 5 pairs x 8 combinations=40

 

so i play 40 combinations at any state:

 

my statistics for one month for MARYLAND show that a pair combination  hits  minimum  1 ouf 8  plays. that  said  you break  even  if  you  hit one out of eight.

with some luck you hit two times out of 8 , so here is a small profit since you win 2 (2x40=80$) and lose 6 times . now the difference is  you must play ONLINE it pays the double 40$ for 0,25 and 80$ for 0,5$.

 

now here comes the question:

what is the best effective method to play consecutive pairs (23-45-etc)  or non consecutive pairs.

 

I have studied the results  for one month  MARYLAND  50 % came consecutive and 50% NON consecutive.

that#s my method to beat  pick  3, hope  to see your comments or any suggestions, may be BOB P CAN help us,

thanks all

 
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