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$300,000,000 Jackpots

Topic closed. 38 replies. Last post 4 years ago by ressuccess.

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Will we see a $300,000,000 jackpot in 2010?

Yes for $300,000,000 [ 28 ]  [46.67%]
We won't crack $200,000,000 again in 2010 [ 5 ]  [8.33%]
Not until the summer of 2011 [ 7 ]  [11.67%]
maybe [ 20 ]  [33.33%]
Total Valid Votes [ 60 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 3 ]  
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Posted: March 18, 2010, 4:10 pm - IP Logged

I cant speak for many, but although Im happy for the family that recently won the $212,000,000 in NJ, I go through a cold turkey withdrawal after the jackpots are hit.  Im afraid with more states able to carry both jackpot games, we will see less and less of the $300,000,000 jackpots.  Trust me, Im glad to participate in marylad in both, and not have to drive into d.c. for the Powerball, but I think the inclusionness of the states for both will water down the jackpots ulimately.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
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    Posted: March 18, 2010, 4:29 pm - IP Logged

    $300,000,000 jackpots weren't that common before the states started cross selling tickets for both multi-state games, but now if they do happen they won't need to roll over as often.  Now that the interests an annuity can earn being lower, the cash value amounts have to be a lot more for that size jackpot which increases the chances that it will be won before reaching that size.

    * you don't need more tickets, just the right ticket * 
    * your best chance at winning a lottery jackpot is to buy a ticket * 
         Wink 

      Avatar
      Morrison, IL
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      Posted: March 19, 2010, 6:40 pm - IP Logged

      It's hard to tell if the cross-selling of Powerball and Mega Millions tickets will increase or decrease the chances of a $300 million annuity jackpot.  On the one hand, more players playing increases the chances of a jackpot being won on any given draw.  On the other hand, a jackpot run doesn't have to survive as long to get to $300 million.  That being said, it's more likely that Powerball will crack $300 million than Mega Millions, because of 1) the obvious - Powerball can get a larger annuity out of its jackpot cash fund than Mega Millions because its annuity is paid over a longer period and is paid in graduated installments as opposed to Mega Millions' equal installments, and 2) even with the states cross-selling, the combined population of the current 8 Powerball-only states/jurisdictions is approximately 8 million less than the combined population of the current Mega Millions-only states (although when Ohio joins Powerball, Powerball's population will outnumber Mega Millions' by 3 million, yet when Oregon joins Mega Millions, the population of the two jurisdictions will be roughly even), and with Powerball having the greater number of combinations, Powerball has more combinations per player in its player base, giving that game the bigger chance of a rollover on any given draw.

      ---

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        NY
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        Posted: March 20, 2010, 3:20 am - IP Logged

        The only thing that affects the average value of the cash value jackpot is the odds. There is no significant difference between having 10 or 15 million players or 20 to 30 million. The chance of 6 rollovers with 10% of combinations covered is 53.1%, vs 51.2% for 3 rollovers with 20% of combinations played. Both scenarios would sell the same number of tickets, so both would result in the same cash jackpot for the next drawing. As a long term average we should expect 1 winner for every 176 or 195 million tickets that are sold.

        What should change is the results when jackpots begin to get fairly large. In the past a 200 million jackpot that rolled over might have gone to 250, with sales of 75 million tickets, and there would have been perhaps a 35% chance of a winner. With more potential players we might see an increase to 275  million, and a 45% chance of a winner. A bigger chance of a winner will be coupled with a bigger increase in the jackpot.

        The interesting thing that happens is that increasing sales by n% doesn't increase the chances of a winner by n%. If 33.33% of combinations have already been sold selling another 3 million tickets will only use 2 million more combinations, because 1 of 3 tickets will repeat a combination that's already been used. The bigger the jump in the jackpot and the higher the sales, the higher the percentage of repeat combinations that is sold.

        The overall result may be that a jackpot that reaches 200 million is less likely to roll twice and reach 300 million, but that's because the  first roll over 200 will result in a bigger jackpot than in the past. I'll also note that even though the chances of multiple winners will be somewhat higher, it would take an enormous jackpot  with enormous sales before the chances of two or three winners becomes really significant. The vast majority of the time the chances of 2 or more winners will be under 10%.

        Finally, I'll note that all of the above is based on a purely random distribution of used combinations. In reality that doesn't happen, because so many people choose non-random combinations. By playing "favorite" or "special" numbers, and patterns the combinations played have more repeated combinations. That further reduces the chances of a winner, and further reduces the increase in used combinations as sales increase. Of course it also increase the chances of multiple winners *if* one of those combinations wins.

          Taipanez's avatar - starwars06
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          Posted: March 21, 2010, 1:55 am - IP Logged

          I think that at some point during summer we will see  200 million plus jackpot not be won and jump to 300 million, maybe around my birthday...and i could win...that would be AMAZING! Cool

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            Posted: April 7, 2010, 2:38 pm - IP Logged

            Well I voted that I didnt think we'd see a $200,000,000million jackpot again this year.  I still feel that way but Powerball is certainly only 2 rolls from crushing that thought.  But Im all for big jackpots, I'd rather be wrong on this than right on.

              Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
              Indiana
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              Posted: April 7, 2010, 6:22 pm - IP Logged

              Well I voted that I didnt think we'd see a $200,000,000million jackpot again this year.  I still feel that way but Powerball is certainly only 2 rolls from crushing that thought.  But Im all for big jackpots, I'd rather be wrong on this than right on.

              Powerball was over $200m last month.

              Gonna win.Big Smile

                jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                Park City, UT
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                Posted: April 7, 2010, 7:56 pm - IP Logged

                I'm actually pleasantly suprised with how the Powerball has gone since allowing the other MegaMillion states in.  I thought the Jackpots would hit sooner but I didn't expect the jackpots to grow quite as quickly as they have.  They get to 100 Million fairly quickly after a win which gets me to want to play.  So I have to give it a thumbs up.  We still get 100+ million jackpots with more players and with no matrix change and we get to 100 million more quickly.

                Jimmy

                  Perfecttiming2's avatar - redcross

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                  Posted: April 12, 2010, 10:34 pm - IP Logged

                  I'm actually pleasantly suprised with how the Powerball has gone since allowing the other MegaMillion states in.  I thought the Jackpots would hit sooner but I didn't expect the jackpots to grow quite as quickly as they have.  They get to 100 Million fairly quickly after a win which gets me to want to play.  So I have to give it a thumbs up.  We still get 100+ million jackpots with more players and with no matrix change and we get to 100 million more quickly.

                  Jimmy

                  Powerball seems to be making out really well with this cross-play of the states........MM....not so much.

                  The fact that PB starts with a 20M jackpot is a huge incentive........and as you mentioned, it seems to grow the jackpot even faster.

                  Can't say the same for MM....hopefully, it will get better

                    megamillionaire's avatar - Sphere animated_small_ neg2.gif
                    Queens, NY
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                    Posted: April 13, 2010, 8:32 pm - IP Logged

                    I checked maybe because there was no answer that said specifically no.

                    Megamillionaire

                    Time is a wonderful teacher, but it kills all its students.

                    A man must consider what a rich realm he leaves when he becomes a conformist.

                      joshuacloak's avatar - avatar 23415.gif

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                      Posted: April 16, 2010, 6:40 am - IP Logged

                      more players  makes it so we have more winners huh? misleading turth

                      shorter time to high jackpots, it events out,

                      hell i say added states

                      not only Does not hurt high jackpots, its raining gas onto the wild fire that powerball

                       

                       

                      i mean powerball starting today, has over freaking 42 states,  "shakers fist at CA"

                      what people did not understand when they said the jackpots would not go as high

                      is odds to win math, and needed tickets to be sold in 1 draw to even have a small chance of it being won

                       

                      the fact of the matter is, you dont see the kinds of sell numbers to push even over 50% of all tickets/odds

                      sold to we are near high 200/300 range ,

                      its simple, when  below 200/300m range  jackpots have a  over 50% chance  it roll again and again, ever freaking time, again and again, to it gets high 200m range,

                       

                      so ofc we can rollover with all these added states

                       

                      the real magic has not even been seen yet

                      if we ever pass 200m range

                      , and enter 300m range , we could skip right over  300m, wait, jackpot cap on pb,  <snip> it,, so 390m

                       

                      powerball about to ether be won in the next 2 draws, or say hello to our first 390m jackpot

                      it wont live pass 3 more draws,, so too all the people who said, we wont be seeing as many high jackpots

                      the joke on you,

                      cease we are, 

                      the hard part is getting over the first 200m

                       

                      what we can do easy now with the added player base,   the easy part is this

                      i say we are going to have at lest over 15 , yes 15 diff this year,  200m  range + jackpots this year

                      ONE of them will make it pass 200m, and go to new record, bet on it

                      if not 2 but thats pushing it, 

                       

                      enjoy the high jackpots, cease i am

                       

                       

                       

                       

                       

                      This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                        Posted: April 16, 2010, 7:17 pm - IP Logged

                        I voted maybe. 

                        Since PB and MM are now in some of the same states things may change. For example, you can't take the matrix of any given game staying the same for granted.

                        Back a few years ago just before California joined MM there was a media hype about possible $500,000,000 jackpots. It's never even come close to that, but the matrix did expand.

                        We also can't be sure that the whole thing isn't a marketing test for a "Lotto USA".

                        When those who run a lotteery want jackpots to get pumped up they just make them harder to hit. This even happesn to Pick 5 games. 5/30 games become 5/39.

                        In Pick 6, 6/49 games become 6/52 (or more).

                        The players are rarely asked about this (The Missouri Lotery has sent out surveys about proposed games). For the most part, a change just happens and the players "approve" of it by continuing to play.

                        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                        Lep

                        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                          joshuacloak's avatar - avatar 23415.gif

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                          Posted: April 18, 2010, 3:42 am - IP Logged

                          coin i agree

                          , they even said 1 of the points of geting all the states to cross sell was to make some lotto usa game in the future, some national marketed lotto,

                          even thro pb being close to it with 42 out of 43 lotto states" you ca for not joining pb"

                           

                          am thinking 2011 time frame,     i bet they wont change the odds for ether game as of right now

                          ,  as a new ,Much harder one being planed soon

                           

                          as for 300m buck jackpot, it rolled to 252, and i bet thats a much lower number then what final sales will put it

                          at this level, they always downplay numbers and update them near draw date

                          with this lotto fever in 42 states,

                          Massive Sells will come, hell am almust sure it be updated to 270m to 280m range if not more by draw time

                           

                          then if we can just get  1 more rollover,

                          we have our new record setting pb jackpot,

                          we are so CLOSE to it,    just 1 more draw we need to roll over to current 390m jackpot cap in plac

                          and once we hit a new record, i can tell all the doubters who said we wont have high level jackpots due to all the new players

                            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                            Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                            Posted: April 20, 2010, 1:28 am - IP Logged

                            Competition is good for the consumer, in this case the players.

                            Currently on the Illinois Lottery website there's a banner ad for Powerball 10X Powerplay, so 5 + 0 with the powerplay wins $2,000,000 instead of $1,000,000.

                            It must be a promo though, as it says for a limited time only. Illinois Mega Millions does not have the Megplier.

                            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                            Lep

                            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                              Posted: April 22, 2010, 5:39 pm - IP Logged

                              I went with maybe.  It's really hard to tell.  While more states joining each game mean more money in sales, and that means higher jackpots, it also means more tickets are being sold, and the chances of someone hitting the jackpot increase with each ticket sold.  I think if one of the games sees a $300 million jackpot anytime soon, it's going to be Powerball, since Mega Millions added so many more states and people than Powerball.

                              I've redone my website.  Go to www.dr-ew.com.  I kept a lot of the old stuff, and I've added some new stuff.  Look for more new stuff in the coming weeks.