Every time Ronnie matched five numbers, I entered his 28 numbers into various wheels using the same order he posted. And when he matched five numbers plus the bonus number, there was a five number match using a 4931 combo 4 if 4 covermaster wheel. While 4931 combos are not exactly a 95% reduction, maybe I should said a 94.98% reduction.
I know there is only one five number match in 5/28 matrix and some calculate the odds of 4931 combos matching five numbers as 98,280 to 4931 or 20 to 1, but when a 4 if 4 wheel matches five numbers, there are multiple four number matches. Any combination of 5 numbers produces 5 four number matches so the odds are 23 to 5 or 4.6 to 1. Because 4931 combos is not the minimum number of combos to get a 28 number 4 if 4 guarantee, it's possible to have more than 5 four number matches and reducing the odds even more. This 4 if 4 should average 6 four number matches when five of the numbers are drawn have a 1 in 3.83 chance.
I'm not saying I have a group of 28 numbers, a method to create a group that gets a 1 in 15 matching five number ratio, or am I playing 4931 combos, but just saying it's mathematically probable to break even or show a small profit using this method.
The object of using any 2 if 2, 3 if 3, 3 if 4, or 4 if 4 wheel is to match five, exceed the wheel guarantee, and possibly have a five number match. There are 10 three number matches in any combination of five numbers so a 3 if 3 wheel has 10 three number matches when five of the numbers are drawn. That's 20 chances that one of the two "extra" numbers drawn out of 25 will be with one of the three number matches creating a four number match. Odds of 23 to 20 makes having a four number match an almost even money bet.
The 2 if 2 wheel Ronnie is using has 10 two number matches when five numbers are drawn so he has 30 chances of matching three numbers. With odds of 23 to 30, that wheel is basically a 3 if 5 guarantee. The overall odds of 40 to 1 in MM are based on the chances of matching one of 40 bonus numbers, so if Ronnie uses 41 bonus numbers, winning something when matching zero numbers is almost a lock. A 46 combo 2 if 2 would guarantee it.
Considering the average MM player's wager is $5 or less, suggesting getting a better chance by playing $41 doesn't help them any and talking about wagering considerably more is useless info to them. Playing a 2 if 5 of 56 number wheel once a month is a better bet than $5 a drawing.