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txwinr

Texas
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August 6, 2003
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Feb 1, 2023, 3:13 pm

Does anyone else find it odd that Mega usually has about 6 or 7 jackpot winners spread out over a whole YEAR and yet they've had FOUR winners in less than 30 days? Has something changed? And of those four, they're ALL in the Northeast (NY, MA, ME).
PrisonerSix

Baton Rouge, LA
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May 7, 2004
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Feb 1, 2023, 3:31 pm

That is interesting that it keeps getting won before it gets very high.

Powerball is on the rise right now it might make the billion mark before long.

Prisoner Six

"I am not a number, I am a free man!"
rcbbuckeye

100

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October 23, 2007
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Feb 1, 2023, 3:50 pm

Four wins out of the last SIX DRAWS.

Noticed that this morning. Hard to explain that.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)
Stat$talker

700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
United States
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September 1, 2019
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Feb 1, 2023, 4:50 pm

It merely sayz that playerz aren't buying thoze No Good QPz az they would like..so naah, LOz are turning thoze Jackpotz aloose tryn to make playerz believe it can easily be won...

"Come back to da Game y'all.., don't forgit bout us..We need yo money"..!! ..

"See dere.. Look at All dem MM winnerz this month"..

LOz?..Git dem Statisticz RIGHT, if you wanna RESTORE the Playerz faith in yo loopsided system..

The statistically unbiased WINNERZ should mostly come from the Communitiez that patronize the MOST...

Math duzzn't lie..cauze it cain't

-Stat$talker
heisenberg991

USA USA USA USA USA USA USA
United States
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May 17, 2021
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Feb 2, 2023, 8:18 am

I'll play it when it hits 31 million. And I will probably not win lol.
rcbbuckeye

100

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Feb 2, 2023, 8:23 am

Both winning tickets were Quick Picks, sold at stores about an hour and a half apart from each other.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)
Ranett

United States
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November 3, 2019
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Feb 2, 2023, 8:46 am

I like these frequent jackpot wins. Too bad there isn't as many 5+0 winners.
Artist77

United States
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January 16, 2012
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Feb 2, 2023, 7:32 pm

Ok. These winners were qps??? I hate qps but may buy one tomorrow.

Do not raise your daughter to look for a knight. Raise her to use the sword herself.
KY Floyd

NY
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October 16, 2005
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Feb 2, 2023, 11:58 pm

That's how random probability works. 8 jackpots have been won since 2/1/22 for a total of about $3.44 billion, and an average of about $430 million. 2 of the jackpots were over $1.3 billion and took much longer than usual to be hit, and 3 were hit much sooner than is typical, for $31 million or less.

I'm not going to bother figuring out the actual total cash value, but at 52% it would be $1.789 billion, and based on the percentage of sales that goes towards the jackpot that required sales of about 2.75 billion tickets. With odds of 1 in 302 million we should expect that many tickets to produce 9.1 winners, so the 8 winners we got is pretty close. It's a bit more than what we see in most years, but the two huge jackpots resulted in more sales than we normally see.

Expecting 1 winner for every 302 million tickets also means we should expect the average jackpot to be about $196 million, so despite getting 3 unusually small jackpots in the last 2 weeks the average jackpot over the past year has been more than double what we could expect.

Only the past year is a small sample size for the lottery, but if we went back another year to 2/1/21 the actual results would be closer to the probable results. That's exactly what we'd expect, with the long term average being closer to what probability suggests than the average over a short period.
winoneday

Canada
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April 14, 2014
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Feb 3, 2023, 12:20 am

KY Floyd, your analysis is always spot on. Thanks for posting.
KY Floyd

NY
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Feb 3, 2023, 9:50 pm

I actually had a bit of a brain cramp in regard to the average jackpots. $430 million was the average annuity value and that $196 million figure is the cash value from 302 million tickets. The 430 million average annuity value would be around $224 million as cash, so the actual average over the past year was really just 15% higher than what could be expected based on the probabilities.
heisenberg991

USA USA USA USA USA USA USA
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Feb 4, 2023, 2:40 pm

What are the chances that someone hits it again at 31 million?
Ranett

United States
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Feb 4, 2023, 4:56 pm

Chances are the same..............ridiculously high.
Stat$talker

700 light yrs West of Milky Way Galaxy's Center
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September 1, 2019
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Feb 4, 2023, 7:57 pm

All dat High Probabilitiez & Oddz crap cain't be worth any Truth in all the hype...cauze none of thoze Jackpot winnerz eevaah were reported being... "struck by lightning"..

-Stat$talker
rcbbuckeye

100

Texas
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October 23, 2007
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Feb 4, 2023, 10:22 pm

Quote: Originally posted by heisenberg991 on Feb 4, 2023
What are the chances that someone hits it again at 31 million?

I really hope someone does hit MM again.

The conspiracy nuts will have a meltdown.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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Megamillions 4 out of last 9 drawings won alreadyPrev TopicNext Topic

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