Answered by Google. Bard
The expected value of a lottery ticket is the average of the possible prizes, weighted by their probability. For a regular Mega Millions ticket, the expected value is about $0.63. This means that, on average, for every $2 you spend on a ticket, you will expect to win about $0.63.
The expected value of a JTJ ticket is about $1.26. This means that, on average, for every $3 you spend on a ticket, you will expect to win about $1.26.
So, the JTJ ticket offers a better expected value of return per unit bet than a regular ticket at any expected value of the jackpot.
The expected value of a lottery ticket becomes positive when the expected value of the jackpot is greater than the cost of the ticket. For a regular Mega Millions ticket, this happens when the jackpot is greater than about $5.30.
The expected value of a JTJ ticket becomes positive when the expected value of the jackpot is greater than about $16.00.
Therefore, the JTJ ticket offers a positive expectation (>$1 return per $1 bet) BEFORE taxes at any expected value of the jackpot greater than about $16.00. A regular $2 ticket offers a positive expectation at any expected value of the jackpot greater than about $5.30.
Here is a table summarizing the expected values of the two tickets:
Ticket |
Expected Value |
Regular Mega Millions |
$0.63 |
JTJ |
$1.26 |
As you can see, the JTJ ticket offers a significantly better expected value of return than a regular ticket. However, it is important to remember that these are just expected values. In reality, you may win less than the expected value, or you may win more.