Number 2 as mb this week ?Prev TopicNext Topic

• brianjoe

  

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  February 22, 2004
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  Apr 20, 2004, 2:00 am

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  last time it drop
  
  

  6/14/2002

   whats up with that ?
• RJOh

  

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  Apr 20, 2004, 2:40 am

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  The #2 Megaball is like #16, #25, #45 and #51 which have been one hit wonders unlike #3, #13, #21, #34 and #52.   58 of the last 100 Megaballs have hit in the previous 40 draws.

  RJOh

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• hypersoniq

  

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  Apr 20, 2004, 4:34 am

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  it may be on vacation with the #27 from the Powerball ;-)

  Have an EXCELlent day!
• fja

  

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  Apr 20, 2004, 7:57 am

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  Number 2 from june of 2002 as well as number 25 from october 2002, they probably come up when they run practice draws, on a more regular basis!

  "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields 
• prob987

  

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  Apr 20, 2004, 10:55 pm

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  It is not possible to absolutely say one way or the other whether the number 2 will occur as the megaball.  It is possible however to evaluate the number of draws that will be likely to occur before the number 2 has a specified probability of occurring at least once. 

  Here is how it works.  The odds that a number other than 2 will be the megaball tonight is 1-(1/52) = 0.981.  If one wishes to define the number of draws that will likely be required to assure that there is a 99% chance that the number 2 will be drawn, the equation giving this number of draws, n, is simply

   0.01 = (0.981)^n. 

  Taking the logarithm of both sides and solving for n, one finds that the value of n is about 237.  This means that there is a 99% chance that 2 will be picked in the next 237 drawings.

  If one uses the very same analysis using a 50% probability that the number 2 will be drawn, one sees that the number of drawings required is considerably less, roughly 7.
• RJOh

  

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  Apr 21, 2004, 12:04 am

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  It has been 194 drawings (almost 2 yrs) since 2 came up as a megaball and you are  suggesting that there is a 99% chance it may be another 237 drawings (over 2 yrs) before it comes up again?  I think all 52 balls will have come twice in that amount of time if the present format last that long.

  RJOh

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• DoctorEw220

  

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  Apr 21, 2004, 12:13 am

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  Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on April 20, 2004
  

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  The #2 Megaball is like #16, #25, #45 and #51 which have been one hit wonders unlike #3, #13, #21, #34 and #52.   58 of the last 100 Megaballs have hit in the previous 40 draws.

  RJOh

  
  

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  how can 58 megaballs hit in 40 drawings?  they only draw one megaball per drawing.

  I've redone my website.  Go to www.dr-ew.com.  I kept a lot of the old stuff, and I've added some new stuff.  Look for more new stuff in the coming weeks.
• RJOh

  

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  Apr 21, 2004, 12:36 am

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  Quote: Originally posted by DoctorEw220 on April 21, 2004
  

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  Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on April 20, 2004
  

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  The #2 Megaball is like #16, #25, #45 and #51 which have been one hit wonders unlike #3, #13, #21, #34 and #52.   58 of the last 100 Megaballs have hit in the previous 40 draws.

  RJOh

  
  

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  how can 58 megaballs hit in 40 drawings?  they only draw one megaball per drawing.
  

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  I wrote:
  58 of the last 100 Megaballs have hit in the previous 40 draws.

  excuse my English. -  translation:
  58 of the last 100 Megaballs had repeated within 40 drawings. 

  RJOh

  Note: tonight megaball repeated after 4 draws.

   * you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones * 

         
  
• prob987

  

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  Apr 21, 2004, 12:42 am

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  Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on April 21, 2004
  

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  It has been 194 drawings (almost 2 yrs) since 2 came up as a megaball and you are  suggesting that there is a 99% chance it may be another 237 drawings (over 2 yrs) before it comes up again?  I think all 52 balls will have come twice in that amount of time if the present format last that long.

  RJOh

  
  

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• prob987

  

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  Apr 21, 2004, 1:02 am

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  Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on April 21, 2004
  

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  It has been 194 drawings (almost 2 yrs) since 2 came up as a megaball and you are  suggesting that there is a 99% chance it may be another 237 drawings (over 2 yrs) before it comes up again?  I think all 52 balls will have come twice in that amount of time if the present format last that long.

  RJOh

  
  

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  There is a finite, but small, possibility that it will never come in our lifetimes. 

  The odds of winning the mega-millions is of course 1 in 135,145,920.  As a probability this can be written as 7.4 X 10^-9.  If we wanted to match the odds of winning the lottery to the odds of the number 27 not appearing, we would see that log(1/135,145,920)/log(1-(1/52)) = 964.  This means that the odds of the number 27 not coming up for over 9 years is roughly comparable to the odds of winning the lottery on one try with one ticket.  People buy lottery tickets all the time, believing that beating such odds are possible.  Mathematically though, if you buy tickets at all, you ought to believe that is possible for 27 not to occur for 964 drawings.  The odds of these two dvents are roughly the same.

  I would agree with the statement that the number 27 is likely to come up much sooner.  As my original post states, the odds are roughly even that it will come up in the next 7 draws.  However such odds are not a certainty by any means.

  Events in previous drawings have no bearing on dvents in subsequent drawings. 

  The odds that 27 will come up in the very next drawing are 1/52, certainly not an unbeatable number.  It did not come up tonight however.  The MB is 49.