Follower system loses momentum in the spreadsheet

Comment #3

hypersoniq — Sat, 20 Jan 2024 20:54:56 GMT

Thanks for the tip!

Comment #2

lakerben — Thu, 18 Jan 2024 22:33:27 GMT

Hang in there. On thing I observed is a lot of repeat pairs and triads in NM for p3 and p4. This would b e good in a program to observe t h e skips between hits this would be profitable. Nm had a repeat triad from Monday in today's p4.

Comment #1

hypersoniq — Thu, 18 Jan 2024 18:58:55 GMT

After a quick look at the first pass of a pick 3 PA history, simply mirroring the last draw resulted in 19 hits in 16,400+ draws. Not profitable, but 4 more than the follower data. Sure it had an extra 999 draws, but that is on raw data, not applying error correction just yet. Want to create the spreadsheets for p3 mid and the 2 pick 5 draws to this point before applying error correction.

Original Blog Entry: Follower system loses momentum in the spreadsheet

hypersoniq — Thu, 18 Jan 2024 07:52:26 GMT

Back tests have value, even if it is to identify the shortcomings of an overly complicated system.

The spreadsheet creation was also a fun dive into formulas and applying error correction masks. The knowledge gained from clean sheet python scripts to getting back to a spreadsheet with more focus than previous attempts was surely worth the time invested, and the money saved by NOT playing the system!

I must go back to the drawing board for a new estimation function, but while I await inspiration, I will continue to hone the spreadsheets on simple guesses, like mirroring the last draw, and testing that out through history files.

The follower second pass data had a most common error of 0 across all 3 digits... problem is they don't line up for wins.

This next spreadsheet only attempt will be based on replacing the follower guesses with the mirror numbers of the last draw, counting the hits, applying the error correction step and counting those hits. Other simple one line workouts could be applied as well and tested in the same manner.

By designing the sheet with VLOOKUP for the mirror replacement scheme, changes and tweaks (and hit counts) can be explored. Live play tests can be shorter and cheaper, and the goal of a pick 5 straight hit can still be attempted... cheaply.

Back to the drawing board.

Happy Coding!... [ More ]