Back tests have value, even if it is to identify the shortcomings of an overly complicated system.

The spreadsheet creation was also a fun dive into formulas and applying error correction masks. The knowledge gained from clean sheet python scripts to getting back to a spreadsheet with more focus than previous attempts was surely worth the time invested, and the money saved by NOT playing the system!

I must go back to the drawing board for a new estimation function, but while I await inspiration, I will continue to hone the spreadsheets on simple guesses, like mirroring the last draw, and testing that out through history files.

The follower second pass data had a most common error of 0 across all 3 digits... problem is they don't line up for wins.

This next spreadsheet only attempt will be based on replacing the follower guesses with the mirror numbers of the last draw, counting the hits, applying the error correction step and counting those hits. Other simple one line workouts could be applied as well and tested in the same manner.

By designing the sheet with VLOOKUP for the mirror replacement scheme, changes and tweaks (and hit counts) can be explored. Live play tests can be shorter and cheaper, and the goal of a pick 5 straight hit can still be attempted... cheaply.

Back to the drawing board. 

Happy Coding!