Comment #1

hypersoniq — Thu, 21 Aug 2025 03:09:15 GMT

Implementing the "Most_Recent_Appearance" metric went smoother than anticipated, took abkit 7 extra lines of code, now up to 181 lines... not too bad for all it does!

Original Blog Entry: So far, the story remains the same

hypersoniq — Thu, 21 Aug 2025 01:16:52 GMT

There was hope starting a new pick 3 system.

There was a straight hit to fund some experiments on other games (pick 5 and Cash 4 Life)

There were more losses than wins, but as of this moment the system has cost 0 out of pocket because of the 1 win.

There are 2 more free weeks to play.

Constant re evaluation of the system leads to some major changes...

1. Implementing the inter quartile range instead of 1 standard deviation on either side of the expectancy to classify draws... that was a major change with minimal coding because I was already looking at the quartiles.

2. Implementing the recency as a tie breaker. I should have that done and tested in the next 2 hours.

3. The planned implementation of the chi-square goodness of fit test for the draws that make up the 150 row model... that will take a bit longer.

4. Preparing to turn the results into inputs for a Markov Decision Process by using back testing and reinforcement learning to automate the selection process.

I will eventually implement these changes and will most likely find myself disappointed with the results, then it will be another phase of sitting on the bench until I come up with another big idea.

I do believe that this is the last system for the year. Planned and pondered for months.

The pick 3 is just as difficult as any game when gunning for one combo... True odds... 1:1,000 every time. I have had my coincidental hit that most systems produce in the first few weeks, so now it's time to see if there is more to it. I am comfortable with the budget for the remainder of 2025... there are 20 more weeks and 2 are on the house, so 18 x $14 = $252. Because I am doing 50 cents straight and 50 cents boxed, only one win will keep the project on the state... which means I will need a second win to have another shot at the pick 5/ Cash 4 Life combo.... [ More ]