Original Blog Entry: Modeling The P3 Via Pair Frequency Part 3

jayemmar — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 20:03:15 GMT

In Part 2 of this series, we discussed how to get a set of straight selections using the frequencyModel.txt file and looking for missing mailbox numbers preferably having digits below 3. In Part 3 of this series, we will discuss how to use the cache80.txt file to determine a range of mailboxes to play. Very often this will lead to boxed wins, and, on occasion, a straight win.

To get started, we'll use 200 past draws taken from the Missouri P3 starting from March 18, 2009 and back. Createing a drawsP3.txt file and running mailBox100, with inputs of 000 and 000 for both the lower and upper bonds of the mailboxes, leads to a chache80.txt file, which presents itself as follows:

000 97

001 59

002 30

003 10

004 1

010 90

011 55

012 17

013 8

014 1

020 17

021 13

022 8

023 1

030 9

031 3

050 1

100 100

101 52

102 27

103 4

104 3

110 83

111 57

112 20

113 16

114 2

120 13

121 9

122 6

123 2

130 10

131 12

132 9

150 2

151 2

152 1

200 12

201 11

202 6

203 3

204 1

210 19

211 10

212 11

213 1

214 1

220 2

221 2

222 4

230 1

231 3

232 1

233 1

252 1

300 10

301 8

302 2

303 1

310 4

311 9

312 3

320 1

321 1

322 1

330 3

331 2

332 1

333 1

334 1

351 1

353 1

400 3

410 2

413 1

430 1

432 2

451 1

Notice that all mailbox numbers with digits 0 and 1 have the most contents. It's not until the mailbox numbers start containing digits exceeding 1 that we see a drop in the contents. Look at the range of mailbox numbers 200-201. Both mailboxes containg double digit contents. The mailbox number range 202-204, however shows a drop to single digit contents(so to say the tail of the comet). Let's examine the contents of mailboxes 202-204. To do this, click on the icon mailbox100, and when you are prompted for the lower bound of the mailbox, enter 202(the smaller number). When you are prompted for the upper bound of the mailbox, enter 204. After succussfully entering the mailbox range, you should see the following message:

There were 10 selections.

Enter any key to exit.

After exiting, look for a file allSelections.txt. Open allselections.txt with notepad(or any other text editor) to examine the 10 selections. They are:

024,026,124,129,170,255,755,800,806,850

The next 20 numbers drawn in the Missouri P3 were:

507,771,400,817,261,092,482,417,785,709,345,258,240,678,556,224,557,817,211,624

We were able to snag two boxed hits with these selections.

Let's try another similar play. Look at the mailbox number range 210-212. This range contains double digits contents , and the range that follows, 213-252 has single digit contents. Let's examine the contents of mailboxes 213 to 252 following the same procedure as above. 213 is the lower bound and 252 becomes the upperbound to input to mailBox100. The 17 selections are:

025,029,127,177,250,251,256,259,655,751,754,801,805,851,855,891,895

We snagged two boxed hits with these selections.

One more try. Mailbox 300 contains 10 selections, all the mailboxes that follow contain single digit contents. This is a long comet , and with the number of selections involved, we would only profit from a win. Let's see what happens. The range of mailbox numbers are from 301 to 451. The 50 selections are:

220,221,223,224,225,226,227,229,230,231,232,233,234,235,236,237,238,239,270,271,273

274,275,276,277,279,370,371,372,373,374,375,376,377,379,500,503,504,505,506,507,509

780,781,782,783,784,785,787,788

Not too bad. We were able to snag 2 straight hits with these 50 selections.

I know there are many out there who are asking: Just how consistent is this methodology? Let's update the draw file with the last 20 draws and try again. Here's the new cache80.txt file:

000 110

001 60

002 42

003 7

004 4

010 102

011 52

012 18

013 8

014 2

020 22

021 14

022 2

023 5

030 5

031 3

032 2

040 1

051 1

100 89

101 26

102 16

103 6

104 4

110 72

111 45

112 26

113 11

114 5

120 10

121 5

122 6

123 2

130 6

131 2

132 5

140 1

143 1

150 1

151 1

200 20

201 18

202 9

203 2

210 34

211 21

212 8

213 4

214 2

220 2

221 6

222 1

224 1

230 7

231 3

232 2

240 2

241 1

242 2

250 1

251 1

252 3

300 9

301 2

302 2

303 1

304 1

310 8

311 5

312 2

313 1

321 2

322 1

323 1

331 1

332 1

334 1

340 1

350 1

400 2

410 3

413 1

430 1

432 1

441 1

452 1

Mailboxes 020-021 are showing the same characteristics as in the previous cycle, and ditto for the mailboxes, 022-051(the tail of the comet), that follow. Let's look at the 19 selections in these mailboxes and see how they did over the next 20 draws. Here are the 19 selections:

280,281,286,289,316,356,396,517,524,537,587,711,721,731,761,791,837,845,917

Here are the results of the next 20 draws:

063,361,357,949,823,694,142,998,892,135,353,087,239,517,434,105,657,782,197,138

On this round we were able to catch 3 boxed hits with these selections.

And now for the big question. What about that nice long comet formed by the mailboxes from 212-452? If you run mailBox100(and you should for the practice), you'll get the following 96 selections:

025,029,171,210,211,216,217,219,220,221,222,223,224,225,226,227,228,229,230,231,232,233

234,235,236,237,238,239,240,241,243,246,249,250,251,256,258,259,260,261,266,269,270,271

276,279,370,376,412,417,482,485,487,500,501,502,503,504,505,506,507,508,509,554,557,624

629,751,758,780,781,782,783,784,785,786,787,788,789,804,805,807,809,810,811,812,813,814

815,816,817,818,819,855,857,858

Not too terribly bad. Two straight and 6 boxed hits

In the next and final part of this series, we will examine a methodology for predicting which pairs to play over the next cycle. Practice the methodology described here, and let's discuss your results.

jayemmar

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