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Modeling The P3 Via Pair Frequency Part 3

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In Part 2 of this series, we discussed how to get a set of straight selections using the frequencyModel.txt file and looking for missing mailbox numbers preferably having digits below 3. In Part 3 of this series, we will discuss how to use the cache80.txt file to determine a range of mailboxes to play. Very often this will lead to boxed wins, and, on  occasion, a straight win.

To get started, we'll use 200 past draws taken from the Missouri P3 starting from March 18, 2009 and back. Createing a drawsP3.txt file and running mailBox100, with inputs of 000 and 000 for both the lower and upper bonds of the mailboxes, leads to a chache80.txt file, which presents itself as follows:

000    97
001    59
002    30
003    10
004    1
010    90
011    55
012    17
013    8
014    1
020    17
021    13
022    8
023    1
030    9
031    3
050    1
100    100
101    52
102    27
103    4
104    3
110    83
111    57
112    20
113    16
114    2
120    13
121    9
122    6
123    2
130    10
131    12
132    9
150    2
151    2
152    1
200    12
201    11
202    6
203    3
204    1
210    19
211    10
212    11
213    1
214    1
220    2
221    2
222    4
230    1
231    3
232    1
233    1
252    1
300    10
301    8
302    2
303    1
310    4
311    9
312    3
320    1
321    1
322    1
330    3
331    2
332    1
333    1
334    1
351    1
353    1
400    3
410    2
413    1
430    1
432    2
451    1

Notice that all mailbox numbers with digits 0 and 1 have the most contents. It's not until the mailbox numbers start containing digits exceeding 1 that we see a drop in the contents. Look at the range of mailbox numbers 200-201. Both mailboxes containg double digit contents. The mailbox number range 202-204, however shows a drop to single digit contents(so to say the tail of the comet). Let's examine the contents of mailboxes 202-204. To do this, click on the icon mailbox100, and when you are prompted for the lower bound of the mailbox, enter 202(the smaller number). When you are prompted for the upper bound of the mailbox, enter 204. After succussfully entering the mailbox range, you should see the following message:

There were 10 selections.

Enter any key to exit.

After exiting, look for a file allSelections.txt. Open allselections.txt with notepad(or any other text editor) to examine the 10 selections. They are:

024,026,124,129,170,255,755,800,806,850

The next 20 numbers drawn in the Missouri P3 were:

507,771,400,817,261,092,482,417,785,709,345,258,240,678,556,224,557,817,211,624

We were able to snag two boxed hits with these selections.

Let's try another similar play. Look at the mailbox number range 210-212. This range contains double digits contents , and the range that follows, 213-252 has single digit contents. Let's examine the contents of mailboxes 213 to 252 following the same procedure as above. 213 is the lower bound and 252 becomes the upperbound to input to mailBox100. The 17 selections are:

025,029,127,177,250,251,256,259,655,751,754,801,805,851,855,891,895

We snagged two boxed hits with these selections.

One more try. Mailbox 300 contains 10 selections, all the mailboxes that follow contain single digit contents. This is a "long comet" , and with the number of selections involved, we would only profit from a win. Let's see what happens. The range of mailbox numbers are from 301 to 451. The 50 selections are:

220,221,223,224,225,226,227,229,230,231,232,233,234,235,236,237,238,239,270,271,273
274,275,276,277,279,370,371,372,373,374,375,376,377,379,500,503,504,505,506,507,509
780,781,782,783,784,785,787,788

Not too bad. We were able to snag 2 straight hits with these 50 selections.

I know there are many out there who are asking: Just how consistent is this methodology? Let's update the draw file with the last 20 draws and try again. Here's the new cache80.txt file:

000    110
001    60
002    42
003    7
004    4
010    102
011    52
012    18
013    8
014    2
020    22
021    14
022    2
023    5
030    5
031    3
032    2
040    1
051    1
100    89
101    26
102    16
103    6
104    4
110    72
111    45
112    26
113    11
114    5
120    10
121    5
122    6
123    2
130    6
131    2
132    5
140    1
143    1
150    1
151    1
200    20
201    18
202    9
203    2
210    34
211    21
212    8
213    4
214    2
220    2
221    6
222    1
224    1
230    7
231    3
232    2
240    2
241    1
242    2
250    1
251    1
252    3
300    9
301    2
302    2
303    1
304    1
310    8
311    5
312    2
313    1
321    2
322    1
323    1
331    1
332    1
334    1
340    1
350    1
400    2
410    3
413    1
430    1
432    1
441    1
452    1

 

Mailboxes 020-021 are showing the same characteristics as in the previous cycle, and ditto for the mailboxes, 022-051(the tail of the comet), that follow. Let's look at the 19 selections in these mailboxes and see how they did over the next 20 draws. Here are the 19 selections:

280,281,286,289,316,356,396,517,524,537,587,711,721,731,761,791,837,845,917

 

Here are the results of the next 20 draws:

063,361,357,949,823,694,142,998,892,135,353,087,239,517,434,105,657,782,197,138

On this round we were able to catch 3 boxed hits with these selections.

And now for the big question. What about that nice long comet formed by the mailboxes from 212-452? If you run mailBox100(and you should for the practice), you'll get the following 96 selections:

025,029,171,210,211,216,217,219,220,221,222,223,224,225,226,227,228,229,230,231,232,233
234,235,236,237,238,239,240,241,243,246,249,250,251,256,258,259,260,261,266,269,270,271
276,279,370,376,412,417,482,485,487,500,501,502,503,504,505,506,507,508,509,554,557,624
629,751,758,780,781,782,783,784,785,786,787,788,789,804,805,807,809,810,811,812,813,814
815,816,817,818,819,855,857,858

Not too terribly bad. Two straight and 6 boxed hits

In the next and final part of this series, we will examine a methodology for predicting which pairs to play over the next cycle. Practice the methodology described here, and let's discuss your results.

jayemmar

Entry #4

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