Prediction Statistics Validity?

Reply #6

Todd — Tue, 22 Mar 2005 23:56:02 GMT

jking,What you are describing is essentially the hit ratio on this site. Although it is calculated a little differently, if you tallied up the scores over time using either method, they would turn out to be approximately the same. I personally think the Lottery Post method of calculating hit ratios is better, because rather than just using a raw score, it focuses on matches that actually form winning tickets, rather than raw matches, which mean different things for different games.

Reply #5

JKING — Tue, 22 Mar 2005 21:26:08 GMT

Todd, What I mean by a capture ratio would be if you got 2 number right in a pick 5 game, then you would have captured two. Then 2/5 would be .4. A system that has a higher ratio over time will yeild more winners. It also indicates accuracy, consistency, and whether or not the system really has a sound foundation. Systems with the higher capture ratios will also be the best ones to use if your wheeling or even deciding who prediction to use as your own. I could go on, but.... Thanks for aski... [ More ]

Reply #4

Todd — Tue, 22 Mar 2005 20:48:41 GMT

jking: I am not sure what number capture ratio means.

Reply #3

JKING — Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:56:27 GMT

Todd, You've got the best thing going on the web, including your statistics pages. And I really do understand how many requests you get and how demanding it must be. So, simply consider the above another request. And know that it is a great measure of who is starting to get it right in the inexact science of lottery predictions.

Reply #2

Todd — Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:31:23 GMT

I provide the stats for the membership as a free service. It's up to you:If you want to pay attention to them or notWhether one stat is more important than anotherI had anticipated this kind of message being posted, which is why I specified on every member's predictions stats page:Lottery predictions are not an exact science, and there is no right way to utilize this information. These reports do not show who is a good predictor and who is bad , but rather should be used as another tool t... [ More ]

Reply #1

JKING — Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:19:39 GMT

I totally agree with waht your saying. I've even made requests for including it in the prediction tracking here. The accuracy or higher number capture ratio will really tell you if your on the right track.

Prediction Statistics Validity?

LuckyFoxTerrier — Fri, 18 Mar 2005 00:20:19 GMT

Maybe I've missed previous discussion of this topic, but lately I've become obsessed with reading the member's predictions statistics ... esp. those who are in the daily winner's circle. I am wondering:1. What is the average hit ratio among all members?2. What's more important to you all, hit ratio or prize ratio? 3. Do statistics really matter in the end anyways?4. If a person has a higher hit ratio than others does that mean he has a better chance of winning the big jackpot?5. Is anyone... [ More ]