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Prediction Statistics Validity?

Topic closed. 6 replies. Last post 12 years ago by Todd.

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LuckyFoxTerrier's avatar - anglewings
mt. airy, nc
United States
Member #10832
January 27, 2005
160 Posts
Offline
Posted: March 17, 2005, 7:20 pm - IP Logged

Maybe I've missed previous discussion of this topic, but lately I've become obsessed with reading the member's predictions statistics ... esp. those who are in the daily winner's circle.  I am wondering:

1.  What is the average hit ratio among all members?

2.  What's more important to you all, hit ratio or prize ratio? 

3.  Do statistics really matter in the end anyways?

4.  If a person has a higher hit ratio than others does that mean he has a better chance of winning the big jackpot?

5.  Is anyone else fascinated with the statistics?

6.  Is there any way to find out which group of people have higher hit and prize ratios:  mystics, mathmaticians, wheel players, software players, etc .....

Anyone else have thoughts on this whole statistics thing?  Anyone know which member has the highest ratios of hits and/or prizes?  And is that member rich yet from winning a jackpot?  Does he/she still have her "day job"?! 

Just curious!  Maybe *I* need another day job to keep my brain busier!!  lol

    JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

    United States
    Member #5599
    July 13, 2004
    1192 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: March 22, 2005, 12:19 pm - IP Logged

    I totally agree with waht your saying. I've even made requests for including it in the prediction tracking here. The accuracy or higher number capture ratio will really tell you if your on the right track.

    You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

    Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

      Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
      Chief Bottle Washer
      New Jersey
      United States
      Member #1
      May 31, 2000
      23354 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: March 22, 2005, 12:31 pm - IP Logged

      I provide the stats for the membership as a free service.  It's up to you:


      • If you want to pay attention to them or not

      • Whether one stat is more important than another

      I had anticipated this kind of message being posted, which is why I specified on every member's predictions stats page:



      Lottery predictions are not an exact science, and there is no "right" way to utilize this information.  These reports do not show who is a "good" predictor and who is "bad", but rather should be used as another tool to help you select your numbers to play.


      The statistics are extremely difficult, sophisticated programs that I wrote, and took a long time to develop.  I did not casually throw them out there, but spent a great deal of time crafting them to what the membership wanted.

      Suggestions for new statistics are always listened to, but since it is so difficult and time-consuming to create new statistics, I do not embark on creating them unless there is a big demand, and the person can demonstrate how and why it is important to create them.  Something thrown out there without supporting detail and effort gets approximately the same level of attention on my part.

       

      Check the State Lottery Report Card
      What grade did your lottery earn?

       

      Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
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        JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

        United States
        Member #5599
        July 13, 2004
        1192 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: March 22, 2005, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

        Todd,

            You've got the best thing going on the web, including your statistics pages. And I really do understand how many requests you get and how demanding it must be. So, simply consider the above another request. And know that it is a great measure of who is starting to get it right in the inexact science of lottery predictions.

        You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

        Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

          Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
          Chief Bottle Washer
          New Jersey
          United States
          Member #1
          May 31, 2000
          23354 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: March 22, 2005, 3:48 pm - IP Logged

          jking: I am not sure what "number capture ratio" means.

           

          Check the State Lottery Report Card
          What grade did your lottery earn?

           

          Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
          Help eliminate computerized drawings!

            JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

            United States
            Member #5599
            July 13, 2004
            1192 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: March 22, 2005, 4:26 pm - IP Logged

            Todd,

              What I mean by a capture ratio would be if you got 2 number right in a pick 5 game, then you would have captured two. Then 2/5 would be .4. A system that has a higher ratio over time will yeild more winners. It also indicates accuracy, consistency, and whether or not the system really has a sound foundation. Systems with the higher capture ratios will also be the best ones to use if your wheeling or even deciding who prediction to use as your own. I could go on, but....

                Thanks for asking.

            You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

            Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

              Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
              Chief Bottle Washer
              New Jersey
              United States
              Member #1
              May 31, 2000
              23354 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: March 22, 2005, 6:56 pm - IP Logged

              jking,

              What you are describing is essentially the hit ratio on this site.  Although it is calculated a little differently, if you tallied up the "scores" over time using either method, they would turn out to be approximately the same.  I personally think the Lottery Post method of calculating hit ratios is better, because rather than just using a raw score, it focuses on matches that actually form winning tickets, rather than raw matches, which mean different things for different games.

               

              Check the State Lottery Report Card
              What grade did your lottery earn?

               

              Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
              Help eliminate computerized drawings!