Are Secrets Really Worth Keeping?

Reply #39

emilyg — Tue, 21 Jun 2005 16:36:21 GMT

i agree - nice profit

Reply #38

BustYa — Tue, 21 Jun 2005 16:00:46 GMT

Exactly, there are a ton of people out there who consistently pull out a profit from pick 3. You just gotta find a system that is right for you and that you feel comfortable using. Spending $40 for $80 is a pretty good deal in my eyes. Bustya

Reply #37

Teufellj — Tue, 21 Jun 2005 05:46:02 GMT

I believe the original question was about keeping a thing, program, way of doing a secret. My input is quite simple---If it works and a person is making a profit, keep the way that you do it mum. Help with general ideas to get someone going because they might reciprocate when you need an idea or two. If you have loose lips and the province where you live gets hold of what and how you are doing a thing, you will be starting from scratch, guaranteed! The only other way to make money from what you... [ More ]

Reply #36

MathWizard — Sun, 19 Jun 2005 21:34:44 GMT

For what it is worth, since I doubt anyone would actually play Pick 3 against their savings, but you could even pay yourself double what the Lottery pays. In the end, you would not have saved anything though, but then, that's not really the point is it.Cheers

Reply #35

Rip Snorter — Sun, 19 Jun 2005 15:02:52 GMT

Aye:You're probably right for most people, if that's how they want to live. Chasing some kind of understanding of how the lottery numbers work hasn't cost me anywhere nearly as much as a couple of decades of chasing a lost gold mine did.But I wouldn't swap a minute, or take back dollar of what I spent chasing a lost gold mine, and I think, as my life flashes before my eyes just before I exit this vehicle, I'll feel the same about chasing an understanding of the way numbers work, spending the be... [ More ]

Reply #34

ayenowitall — Sun, 19 Jun 2005 14:29:01 GMT

Originally posted by dboz7: The key to sports and most gambling is money management.....dont chase your losses when losing and dont bet bigger when you are on a hot streak. A much better way to go with the Pick 3 style games, in my opinion is to build your own jackpot, play numbers against your lottery without actually buying tickets instead putting the money in your own pot, pay yourself if you win and let it build interest if you lose. I posted this theory before and it did not go over to we... [ More ]

Reply #33

dboz7 — Sun, 19 Jun 2005 12:15:11 GMT

I was using a modified version on the Martengale system a while back when I was into sports betting, (Martengale +1) in effect adding 1 more dollar to each bet to recoup my losses and make $1 profit. Then I hit a bad streak, I chased one 7 deep, I was betting $512 to make $1 profit, and guess what? I got that one wrong too!!! even though the odds told me that it was 98.5% in my favor not to get 7 in a row wrong.....it can, (and eventually will) happen! That year I ended up with a 64% winning r... [ More ]

Reply #32

LANTERN — Sun, 19 Jun 2005 00:12:34 GMT

I might be wrong, but it seems to me that knowing and or being sure that the odds can't be improved is a definite disadvantage if you are or if you are trying to be or become a gambler.That is why I have no doubt in my mind whatsoever that the odds are in direct proportion to your knowledge of the game or inversely proportional, whichever might be the right term of what I am trying to say.Both, Math and Statistical knowledge can sometimes hinder and or be a handicap, because you know that... [ More ]

Reply #31

MathWizard — Sat, 18 Jun 2005 23:51:02 GMT

I created a text version of the table here:http://members.shaw.ca/RandallFlagg/Martingale.txtI tried to post the file directly through the editor, but it eventually failed.

Reply #30

NemeSys — Sat, 18 Jun 2005 22:57:16 GMT

I'm not sure you could post an Excel file directly. All I can think of is copying and pasting from Excel, or a screen capture (I use HyperSnap, http://www.hyperionics.com/).

Reply #29

MathWizard — Sat, 18 Jun 2005 22:38:31 GMT

Unfortunately, the Martingale system is not really designed to work with Lotto style games like the Texas 5/37. The only part of the game that could be used would be the $2 win for Match 2 at odds of 1 in 8.79. This means that you would have to wager a progression of doubles with a 30% chance of losing $1,023 before even winning a single $1 above your total wagers. Mind you, it does mean you would have played for the higher prizes for free 70% of the time.The other part of Martingale that doe... [ More ]

Reply #28

bobby623 — Sat, 18 Jun 2005 16:55:07 GMT

MathWizard Could you give us some data, examples, etc, for using the Martingale system for a pick 5 game, such as the Texas 5/37 lottery??Thanks

Reply #27

MathWizard — Sat, 18 Jun 2005 08:42:16 GMT

No Problem;Actually, however, the Martingale system is not all that good unless you have a game with a decent payout and good odds. The Keno example I used only nets about a $1 return every 4 draws with a 5% chance of catestrophic failure. Still, a friend used to use it to pay for his drinks at the bar (with slightly more money involved).It was originally designed for no-limit Casino games like Blackjack.

Reply #26

LOTTOMIKE — Sat, 18 Jun 2005 08:31:23 GMT

thanks for the info

Reply #25

MathWizard — Sat, 18 Jun 2005 08:26:37 GMT

For games without a Jackpot (such as Pick 3, Pick 4, Keno etc.) there is also a system known as the Martingale System. It works like this:1. Save up as much money as you can.If you play $5 per day, you will have to not play for 7 months or cut back to $1 per day for about 9 months in order to save the $1,023 you need to even have a shot at this.2. Select a number to wager on with minimal return and maximum odds. Example: Keno Pick 1 with 1 in 4 odds and 2 x wager prize.3. Use the minimum wager... [ More ]

Reply #24

MathWizard — Sat, 18 Jun 2005 07:54:19 GMT

Many years ago I was asked to help write software to assist lottery players in selecting their numbers . I was very careful not to make statements like better chance of winning or improved odds because mathematically speaking, it is impossible to change the probability of any particular event happening.That said, it is not at all difficult to put together wheels and other systems that change the probability of a win and the pattern of what might be won, but ultimately, the expected amount

Reply #23

Atomic Dog — Fri, 17 Jun 2005 18:03:21 GMT

Win D,You wrote: The simple truth is.........the biggest break through in history of Pick 3 in improving the player's odds and helping folks win more .......and much more often ....came from Costa Rica....... Can you explain this statement? I am a newbie and am curious as to what you are referring to in the statement above. Please explain yourself fully.Thanks,Atomic Dog

Reply #22

orangeman — Wed, 15 Jun 2005 02:07:46 GMT

Todd:Never claimed I could do math. My point is still more than valid.Orangeman

Reply #21

orangeman — Wed, 15 Jun 2005 02:02:14 GMT

Todd

Reply #20

NemeSys — Wed, 15 Jun 2005 01:44:00 GMT

Hello RJOh,My point was that I think I'm the first person to apply RA to lottery numbers. Somebody out there might have done the same years before (RA was discovered about 20 years ago, so it's possible), but until they come forward with proof I'm going to stick by my claim to be the first. Here are a couple of examples that might prove salutory to hedgers:Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz both developed integral and differential calculus independently of each other, but Newton was so paranoid... [ More ]

Reply #19

Todd — Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:43:06 GMT

A $80 win on a $40 bet is actually a 100% profit! A 50% profit would be a $60 win.

Reply #18

Rip Snorter — Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:03:00 GMT

JKING:Good quote.Jack

Reply #17

empassioned1 — Mon, 13 Jun 2005 16:50:01 GMT

Wow,Thats at bit profound, and certainly calls anyone and everyone selling a lottery system on the mat so to speak. I think once a secret gets out and becomes public knowledge- free for anyone to use and master-, the game changes to compensate. I know Missouri claimed there was no money to produce a 5 minute show to allow three sets of balls to pop up or roll out of a hopper or whatever you call it, but consider this, now that they've gone to computer, it just seems tooooooo easy for them... [ More ]

Reply #16

orangeman — Mon, 13 Jun 2005 16:21:09 GMT

RJOh:In answer to your question. It is possible to win more than 50% of the time using 40 or fewer numbers. The trick is knowing how to pick key numbers, knowing what numbers to throw out and, most importantly, knowing when not to play. Any student of Sun Tzu will tell you knowing when to avoid a fight as important as knowing how to win. By the way, those who are selling books about winning the lottery know in their hearts they can make more selling their ideas than they can using them for the... [ More ]

Reply #15

RJOh — Mon, 13 Jun 2005 15:52:18 GMT

NameSys,I read your post on recurrence analysis and all I saw was an idea to try and a link to get more information. When you said you shared a secret I was thinking you had picked some winners using recurrence analysis and you shared how you did it. I agree if you share an idea or system that you has never tried or used successfully then you've lost nothing.RJOh

Reply #14

NemeSys — Fri, 10 Jun 2005 22:56:44 GMT

I've never been really comfortable with keeping secrets (though I will keep one for somebody else if asked). It seems secrecy has caused a lot of problems for humanity over the centuries, and the bigger a secret is the harder it is to keep anyway (think of encryption codes, the atom bomb, political scandals, et cetera).I posted my recurrence analysis method because - as has been pointed out about systems in general - if it doesn't work I haven't lost anything. If it does work...well, I still hav... [ More ]

Reply #13

Badger — Thu, 09 Jun 2005 02:47:29 GMT

Reply #12

Badger — Thu, 09 Jun 2005 02:44:49 GMT

RJOH,I guess it would depend upon what one defines as an affordable cost . To me, I've seen enough people trying to wheel 100 combos at 100 bucks a draw. And really, that 100 combos doesn't change the odds on a major jackpot game any. It's a drop in the bucket when the odds of hitting the jackpot are over 100 million to one. To me, personally, games with odds that high are never worth more than a 5 buck ticket. There are just too many combinations possible. Winning a major jackpot game like t... [ More ]

Reply #11

JKING — Wed, 08 Jun 2005 23:03:54 GMT

SirMetro,If it's any consolation:All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. Arthur Schopenhauer (1788 - 1860

Reply #10

SirMetro — Wed, 08 Jun 2005 16:58:25 GMT

Perhaps a huge reason for keeping one's method a secret, even if unsuccessfull is simply to avoid undesirable criticism from those who tend to believe their method/way is superior and anything else is just a feable attempt to acheive what they believe only they can master.For example, I have an extremely simple method of finding a winning number within a list of roughly 128 sets (Cash 3) and 256 sets (Cash 4). I just don't know how to realistically reduce that list. I don't bother posting now be... [ More ]

Reply #9

RJOh — Wed, 08 Jun 2005 16:42:03 GMT

Have you ever seen a $40 system that would average a profit over time?RJOh

Reply #8

lottaloot — Wed, 08 Jun 2005 02:13:21 GMT

AMEN to that my brother

Reply #7

WIN D — Wed, 08 Jun 2005 02:09:33 GMT

One day .......if you work your butt off and you stick with it long enough..... you can get the odds on pick 3 down to around 50.50. Then it occurs to you........ Hey this is a crap game with crappy odds . I could have gotten those odds almost anywhere long ago........and without all the work. The REAL big break on odds is a big secret alright. It's soooo secret that we dare not say it's name. If it weren't for the 55 diimes place we would still be trying to break the odds to 50//50 The si... [ More ]

Reply #6

atlasshrugged — Wed, 08 Jun 2005 02:05:57 GMT

As far as secrets are concerned. With the pick 3 or pick 4 I would have no problems sharing what I have found successful. Unfortunately the only thing I have been successful at is getting numbers from my daughter. As far as any systems go, it's been pretty much a no go. But if I did find it, again I wouldn't mind sharing it. As far as any jackpot type game goes and I am referring to anything pick 5 and above. You can forget about me giving out any kinds of secrets on something like that. Again I... [ More ]

Reply #5

orangeman — Wed, 08 Jun 2005 01:48:22 GMT

Pick 3 is winnable, but you have to resign yourself to the fact that it may take that $40 investment to win $80. A 50% profit is not all that bad when you think about it. Anyone wanting to win consistently playing a couple of bucks a day is nickel/diming themselves into a ditch. Orangeman

Reply #4

RJOh — Wed, 08 Jun 2005 01:00:51 GMT

Badger,Your idea of a system that works consistently for jackpot games is different than mine. A system that could come close to a big win 20-25% of the time and maybe hit a major jackpot once every two years was what I had in mind. No pattern that is affordable to cover is going to repeat ever draw but there may be patterns that happen 20-25% of the time that can be covered at an affordable cost. That's the kind of system that I've been looking for. RJOh

Reply #3

Badger — Tue, 07 Jun 2005 22:59:08 GMT

I don't think there are any secret systems -- not as far as a system that works for all games, all the time.I think that there are a lot of systems/methods that work for a period of time, then something changes and they go cold....then later they heat up again.What you have to keep doing is changing your method/system to keep up with the way the numbers fall. And there is no method of telling you how to do that or when. You just keep at it, and hope you luck into the right one and are rew... [ More ]

Reply #2

RJOh — Tue, 07 Jun 2005 20:09:56 GMT

If someone has an idea that hasn't worked there is no point in keeping it a secret, why not be generous and share it with others? On the other hand if someone has an affordable idea that has been tested and shown to be close to winning some big money 25% of the time, they might not want to share it after reading the threads about people coming to LP looking for ideas to sell on their own website. Most of the ideas I've read have been without any data about their cost or preformance during past... [ More ]

Reply #1

kdsjeter — Tue, 07 Jun 2005 18:26:40 GMT

There are no fool-proof systems out their in my opinion. The system that may work today, is no good tomorrow. People who withold their secrets tend to be geniuses if you know what I mean. For those players from each state who tend to recognize patterns of numbers and their tendencies seem to be those that hit. Of course you have to remember that luck plays into this equation as well. As a fellow analyzer of numbers and lottery systems I am still searching and hoping to find that ellusive

Are Secrets Really Worth Keeping?

JKING — Tue, 07 Jun 2005 15:05:10 GMT

Given the fact that there are so many games in so many states, and the fact that nobody seems to be winning constantly--Why keep secret the method they're working on? Unless your using as part of a software package you intend to sell, It doesn't make sense to me. On the other hand, isn't a win-win situation to put all the cards out on the table. The LP members may get new ideas, while the originator may find out that its been done before(and does/doesn't work), or maybe readily get what he or sh... [ More ]