Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.

Reply #310

Prob988 — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 04:02:22 GMT

Powerball has rolled. The cash jackpot is 19.1M, the advertised annuity is $41M.

Fourth round drawings sell 15.4M tickets on average. The probabilities in an average run for various numbers of winners is as follows:

089.97%

19.51%

20.50%

30.02%

The long term model suggests the following:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probability from baseline

$590,800,1... [ More ]

Reply #309

Prob988 — Thu, 15 Mar 2007 14:35:51 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $88.2M, the annuity is advertised at $183M. Thirteen round draws sell on average 31.4M tickets. (Recent draws have been above average though).

Here is the probability for various numbers of winners:

080.66%

117.34%

21.86%

30.13%

40.01%

The long term model function suggests the following for jackpot evolution:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle... [ More ]

Reply #308

stephi — Sun, 11 Mar 2007 19:44:43 GMT

Me too

Reply #307

Prob988 — Sun, 11 Mar 2007 19:37:28 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $79.5M. The advertised annuity is $165M.

Average ticket sales for 12th drawings are 27.4M. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is:

082.90%

115.55%

21.46%

30.09

Reply #306

Prob988 — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 02:55:23 GMT

Not that anybody is noticing, Powerball has rolled and has quite an impressive jackpot. The cash value is $57.6M, the advertised annuity is $120M. Tenth draws average about 21.9M in sales. This suggests the following probability distribution for numbers of winners:

086.07%

112.91%

20.97%

30.05%

The long term model suggests the following:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall

Reply #305

Prob988 — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 04:54:47 GMT

Powerball has rolled. The cash jackpot is $50.2M, the advertised annuity is $105M. Tenth round jackpots sell 21.9 M tickets. If this is the nubmer that sell, the distribution of winners will be as follows:

086.07%

112.91%

20.97%

30.05%

Here is the long term model of the run:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probability from baseline

$574,228,336.77$274,535,83327... [ More ]

Reply #304

Just6ntlc — Tue, 27 Feb 2007 00:41:49 GMT

I hope PB continues to roll and reaches between 365 and 390 million on this run.

Reply #303

Prob988 — Mon, 26 Feb 2007 04:35:25 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over. The new cash prize is $43.2M; the advertised annuity is $90M. The average sales for a 9th drawing are 21.1M. Average sales would produce a winner distribuiton probability like this:

k, number of winnersp(m,k)

086.57%

112.49%

20.90%

30.04%

The long term models suggests the following:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probabili... [ More ]

Reply #302

Prob988 — Thu, 22 Feb 2007 12:45:12 GMT

Powerball has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $37.5M, the advertised annuity is $78M. Average sales for 8th round drawings are 18.3M. Average sales would provide the following probability distribution for numbers of winners:

088.20%

111.07%

20.69%

30.03%

The long term probability distribution model suggests the following for jackpot evolution:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityO... [ More ]

Reply #301

Prob988 — Sun, 18 Feb 2007 16:41:13 GMT

Powerball has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $31.9 M, the advertised annuity value is $67M. The average sales for 7th draws is 17.1M.

Sales of 17.1M in this drawing would produce a probability distribution for numbers of winners as follows:

088.93%

110.43%

20.61%

30.02%

The long term jackpot model suggests the following:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probability fr... [ More ]

Reply #300

Prob988 — Thu, 15 Feb 2007 19:54:36 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is 27.5M; the advertised annuity, $58M. The average number of tickets sold on on sixth draws is 16.7M.

The average sales of this size produce a probability distribution for numbers of winners as follows:

089.14%

110.25%

20.59%

30.02%

The long term jackpot evolution has been pretty accurate of late in Powerball (not so good in MM - which I am still modeling as a pure exponential). Here is what it suggests for

Reply #299

Prob988 — Sun, 11 Feb 2007 22:21:33 GMT

Powerball rolled over. The cash jackpot is $22M. The advertised annuity is $46M.

Fifth draws sell on average 15.9M tickets.

If the sales are average the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows:

089.68%

19.76%

20.53%

30.02%

The long term model suggests the following for jackpot development:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probability

Reply #298

Prob988 — Fri, 09 Feb 2007 06:22:23 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled over and is now valued at $17.5M cash and is advertised as a $37M annuity. Fourth drawings average 15.3 M in sales. If the next drawing is average, the probability of various numbers of winers is as follows:

090.06%

19.42%

20.49%

30.02%

The long term model suggests this for jackpot evolution:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probability from... [ More ]

Reply #297

Prob988 — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 13:06:43 GMT

Powerball has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $12.9M; the annuity value advertised is $27M. Third drawings sell 15.0M tickets on average. The randomized probability of various numbers of winners - if average sales are obtained - is:

090.24%

19.27%

20.48%

30.02%

The mathematical model I use to predict the long term probabilities of rollovers within a particular run suggests the following:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash... [ More ]

Reply #296

Prob988 — Fri, 02 Feb 2007 04:08:54 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash jackpot is $9.3M. The advertised annuity is $20M. An average 2nd PB draw sells $14.2M in tickets. If this is the amount that sells in the next drawing, the randomized probability of a a rollover we be as follows:

090.37%

19.15%

20.46%

30.02%

The modeling program I developed suggests the following for jackpot evolution:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Ro... [ More ]

Reply #295

Prob988 — Mon, 29 Jan 2007 15:45:42 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has been won and is reset to $7.1M cash, $15M advertised annuity. The average sales for first drawings is now 14.8M, having risen slightly in the last jackpot run, because of record sales on the first drawing for this matrix.

If an average number of tickets sell this time, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

090.34%

19.18%

20.47%

30.02%

The long term model for jackpot evolution, ignoring minimums and caps... [ More ]

Reply #294

Prob988 — Thu, 25 Jan 2007 21:22:56 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has been won and is reset to $7.1M cash, $15M advertised annuity. The average sales for first drawings is 14.7M.

If this is how many tickets sell, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

090.41%

19.11%

20.46%

30.02%

The long term model for jackpot evolution, ignoring minimums and caps suggests the following:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Roll... [ More ]

Reply #293

Homeydogg — Mon, 22 Jan 2007 23:53:26 GMT

According to the Powerball E-mail the actual jackpot on Saturday, Jan 20 was$212,300,000 Annuity/$100,700,000 cash.

A jackpot of $390,000,000 annuity would have a $185,000,000 cash value at Saturday's ratio.

185.0-100.7=84.3

30.28855% of Powerball Sales go to the jackpot.

84.3/.3028855 ~ 280

$280,000,000 in sales for three draws seems likely (assuming no winner).

The limited sales history at the current jackpot levels indicates sales should be at least 50, 90, and 140 million... [ More ]

Reply #292

Prob988 — Mon, 22 Jan 2007 13:31:09 GMT

I would not be surprised, in the unlikely case that the jackpot rolls toward the cap, if it rises faster than historical data suggests. It's been a long time since there's been a jackpot this high, meaning higher excitement.

The last drawing gave sales 10M above the previous average.

Reply #291

dvdiva — Sun, 21 Jan 2007 19:19:02 GMT

Judging from the sales its very close to the drawing for 340 million on 10/20/05.

If it rolls it would be closer to 240, 300, 390 (the cap + 5-10 million in the match 5 bonus). Both the 365 (which had less sales at this point) and the 340 roll would have broken 400+ if it weren't for the cap.

Reply #290

Prob988 — Sun, 21 Jan 2007 13:54:39 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $114M. The advertised annuity is $240M. The average 16th PB draw sells 49.0M tickets. If this is the number that sell, the randomized distribution probability for various numbers of winners is as follows:

071.52%

123.97%

24.02%

30.45%

40.04%

Lottoreport has posted sales figures and the long term projection program, which ignores caps, suggests the following:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated An... [ More ]

Reply #289

Prob988 — Fri, 19 Jan 2007 13:08:20 GMT

The sales figures at lottoreport for the last drawing are still not available so the long term estimates will not be updated from the last one until they come out.

The Powerball has, though rolled over. The cash jackpot for powerball is $98.3M. The advertised annuity is $205M. At 15th drawing sells on average $40M tickets. The randomized probability for various numbers of winners is as follows:

076.58%

120.43%

22.73%

30.24%

40.02

Reply #288

Prob988 — Fri, 19 Jan 2007 04:39:32 GMT

It would be indeed. Of course, if I could do that, I wouldn't be posting it here, but using it to win the lottery.

However it is not possible to predict the numbers since they don't really depend on external factors, but it is reasonable to estimate the probability of jackpot growth since they follow regular patterns.

My modelling programs are not always accurate particularly the low range and high range, but they do give a good idea of what one might expect.

Reply #287

CA LotteryGuy — Thu, 18 Jan 2007 15:23:33 GMT

Prob988...it looks like your predictions were right on the money.

If you could only come up with a way to predict those 6 little numbers, now that would be special

Reply #286

Prob988 — Thu, 18 Jan 2007 06:08:28 GMT

The long term program did spectactularly well on predicting the new jack pot which is $98.3 cash, $205M advertised.

Update tomorrow.

Reply #285

Prob988 — Mon, 15 Jan 2007 02:51:23 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash value is $86; the advertised annuity value is $180M. Fourteenth round drawings sell on average 31.0M tickets. If this is the number that sell, the randomized probability for various numbers of winners will be as follows:

080.66%

117.34%

21.86%

30.13%

40.01%

The modeling function, which moves on the 14th draw to an exponential form, being linear for 1 through 13, suggests the following for jackpot evolution, ignori... [ More ]

Reply #284

Just6ntlc — Sun, 14 Jan 2007 06:48:48 GMT

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 1/17 has rolled to 180 million. Lets see how the long term jackpot evolution figures now.

Reply #283

Prob988 — Thu, 11 Jan 2007 05:26:39 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash value is $74.7; the advertised annuity value is $155M. Thirteenth round drawings sell on average 31.0M tickets. If this is the number that sell, the randomized probability for various numbers of winners will be as follows:

080.89%

117.16%

21.82%

30.13%

40.01%

The long term jackpot evolution is suggested as follows with the modeling program:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated C... [ More ]

Reply #282

Just6ntlc — Thu, 11 Jan 2007 05:13:22 GMT

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 1/13 has rolled to 155 million.

Reply #281

Prob988 — Mon, 08 Jan 2007 04:21:41 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash value is $63.5M; the advertised annuity value is $131M. Twelfth round drawings sell on average 27.3M tickets. If this is the number that sell, the randomized probability for various numbers of winners will be as follows:

082.93%

115.52%

21.45%

30.09%

The modeling program suggests the following jackpot evolution:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollov... [ More ]

Reply #280

Just6ntlc — Sun, 07 Jan 2007 06:24:50 GMT

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 1/10 has rolled to 131 million. Lets see how the long term jackpot evolution figures now.

Reply #279

Prob988 — Thu, 04 Jan 2007 14:10:02 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $52.8M The advertised annuity is $115M. The average sales for an 11th drawing are $24.3M.

If ticket sales are averarge, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

084.66%

114.10%

21.17%

30.07%

The long term probability function is running ahead of the actual outcome but here it is anyway:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated

Reply #278

Just6ntlc — Thu, 04 Jan 2007 06:12:29 GMT

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 1/6/07 has rolled to 115 million this time.

Reply #277

Prob988 — Thu, 28 Dec 2006 05:39:31 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $42.8M The advertised annuity is $88M. The average sales for an ninth drawing are $21.1M.

If ticket sales are averarge, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

086.57%

112.49%

20.90%

30.04%

The long term jackpot evolution suggests the following:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOv... [ More ]

Reply #276

Just6ntlc — Thu, 28 Dec 2006 05:17:50 GMT

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 12/30 has rolled to 88 million.

Reply #275

Prob988 — Sun, 24 Dec 2006 05:41:37 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $36.3M The advertised annuity is $75M. The average sales for a seventh drawing are $18.5M.

If ticket sales are averarge, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

088.11%

111.15%

20.71%

30.03%

Here's the long term:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probability from baseline... [ More ]

Reply #274

Just6ntlc — Sun, 24 Dec 2006 05:21:47 GMT

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 12/27 has rolled to 75 million. Lets see how the long term jackpot figures out.

Reply #273

Prob988 — Thu, 21 Dec 2006 11:36:54 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $31.6 The advertised annuity is $65M. The average sales for a seventh drawing are $17.1M.

If ticket sales are averarge, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

088.93%

110.43%

20.61%

30.02%

The projection models suggests this:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probability f... [ More ]

Reply #272

Prob988 — Sun, 17 Dec 2006 13:08:54 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $25.9M. The advertised annuity is $53M. The average sales for a fifth drawing are $15.9M.

If ticket sales are averarge, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

089.68%

19.76%

20.53%

30.02%

The long term mixed linear exponential mathematical model I use - the actual jackpot is only 94% of what the model suggests - predicts the following:

Average Historical... [ More ]

Reply #271

Prob988 — Thu, 14 Dec 2006 12:28:41 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $21.2M. The advertised annuity is $43M. The average sales for a fourth drawing are $15.2M.

If this is the average number of tickets that sell, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

090.06%

19.42%

20.49%

30.02%

Long term evolution of the jackpot, as modelled mathematically looks like this:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash

Reply #270

Prob988 — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 02:47:20 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $16M. The advertised annuity is $3M. The average sales for a third drawing are $15.4M.

If this is the average number of tickets that sell, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

090.01%

19.47%

20.50%

30.02%

The linear/exponential model function predicts the following long term evolution of the jackpot.

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalcula... [ More ]

Reply #269

Prob988 — Thu, 07 Dec 2006 13:55:37 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $12.9M. The advertised annuity is $27M. The average sales for a third drawing are $14.9M.

If this is the average number of tickets that sell, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

090.24%

19.26%

20.48%

30.02%

The long term model was accurate this time out in predicting the current situation. The Powerball sales seem to grow in linear for the first 12 draws

Reply #268

Prob988 — Sun, 03 Dec 2006 15:20:15 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $9.8M. The advertised annuity is now $20M. Second round drawings sell on average, 14.2M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell on this drawing the randomized probability of a rollover will be as follows:

090.68%

18.87%

20.43%

30.01%

The model for long term jackpot evolution suggests the following:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSi... [ More ]

Reply #267

Prob988 — Thu, 30 Nov 2006 13:41:28 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has been won. The jackpot is reset at $7.3M cash and $15M in advertised annuity. First round draws sell on average 14.7M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability of various numbers of winners is:

090.40%

19.12%

20.46%

30.02%

The long term model program, which ignores reserves, minimums and caps suggests the following long term probability for jackpot evolution:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated Annuity... [ More ]

Reply #266

Prob988 — Sun, 26 Nov 2006 14:13:04 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is now $36M. The advertised annuity is now $74M. Eighth round jackpots sell on average, 18.6M tickets. If this is the number of tickets that sell on this drawing the randomized probability of a rollover will be as follows:

088.02%

111.23%

20.72%

30.03%

Note that the last time, in error, I posted the long term probability starting from an eighth draw and not a seventh. Thus the correct long term model... [ More ]

Reply #265

Prob988 — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 05:19:36 GMT

Powerball has rolled over. The cash value is $31.1M; the advertised annuity is $64M.

Seventh draws on average sell $17.2M in tickets.

If this is the number of tickets that sell, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

088.91%

110.45%

20.61%

30.02%

The function that I use to model long term probabilities suggests the following, ignoring minimums and caps:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value... [ More ]

Reply #264

Prob988 — Sun, 19 Nov 2006 05:53:01 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash value is $26.1M; the advertised annuity is $54M.

On average, sixth drawings in a powerball jackpot run sell $16.89M in tickets.

Were the average number of tickets to sell this time out, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

089.08%

110.30%

20.60%

30.02%

The model function for the long term evolution of jackpots suggests the following:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculate... [ More ]

Reply #263

Prob988 — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 13:10:32 GMT

The Powerball Jackpot has rolled. The cash jackpot is $21.5M, the advertised annuity is $45M. Fifth round drawing sell 15.8M tickets on average. If sales of average, he is the randomized probability of various numbers of winners:

089.75%

19.71%

20.52%

30.02%

The long term model suggests the following for jackpot evolution:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probabil... [ More ]

Reply #262

Prob988 — Sun, 12 Nov 2006 12:38:09 GMT

Powerball has rolled. The cash jackpot is $16.9M. The advertised annuity is $35M. The average sales for a fourth drawing are $15.5M.

If the average number of tickets sell, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

089.96%

19.52%

20.50%

30.02%

The mixed linear/exponential model function suggests jackpot evolution as follows:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw R... [ More ]

Reply #261

Prob988 — Sat, 11 Nov 2006 13:26:38 GMT

Sometimes, for ease, I cut and paste and change the numbers in the first sentence of my posts in this thread from previous entries. The last time I forgot to change the relevant numbers.

The cash jackpot is $12.9M. The advertised annuity is $27M. The average sales for a third drawing are $14.9M.

If this is the average number of tickets that sell, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

090.30%

19.21%

20.47%

30.02

Reply #260

Prob988 — Thu, 09 Nov 2006 06:08:47 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $9.4M. The advertised annuity value is $20M. Second round jackpots on average sell 14.3M in tickets. If this number of tickets is sold for this draw, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows:

090.30%

19.21%

20.47%

30.02%

The long term modelling function suggests the following:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSi... [ More ]

Reply #259

Prob988 — Sun, 05 Nov 2006 06:45:15 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $9.4M. The advertised annuity value is $20M. Second round jackpots on average sell 14.3M in tickets. If this number of tickets is sold for this draw, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows:

090.65%

18.90%

20.44%

30.01%

My mixed linear exponential model for long term probability of this run's continuance is as follows:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCa... [ More ]

Reply #258

Prob988 — Thu, 02 Nov 2006 16:38:34 GMT

It was bound to happen eventually. I don't think it will be all that common, though.

Reply #257

ryanm — Thu, 02 Nov 2006 12:57:23 GMT

Last night was the first time since the matrix change that Powerball had more than one winner for a draw.

Reply #256

Prob988 — Thu, 02 Nov 2006 10:00:28 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has had two winners. The jackpot is reset at $7.1M cash, $15M advertised annuity.

The average sales for a first drawing is $14.6M. If this draw sells at the average value the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

090.46%

19.07%

20.45%

30.02%

The long term jackpot evolution model program predicts the following evolution exclusive of reserves, minimums and caps:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculat... [ More ]

Reply #255

Prob988 — Sun, 29 Oct 2006 04:47:20 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash value of the jackpot is $44M. The advertised annuity value is $93.0M. Ninth draws average 21.134M in sales. If the number of tickets that sell in the next drawing is average then the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows:

086.53%

112.52%

20.91%

30.04%

The accuracy of the long term model is now off 5%, as compared to about 2% on the last draw. Nevertheless, here is what it predicts... [ More ]

Reply #254

Prob988 — Thu, 26 Oct 2006 13:14:48 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over. The cash value of the jackpot is $38.8M. The advertised annuity value is $83.0M. Eighth draws average 18.4M in sales. If the number of tickets that sell in the next drawing is average then the randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows:

088.16%

111.11%

20.70%

30.03%

The mixed linear/exponential model I use to suggest the probability of long term behavior of the Powerball, exclusive of reserve... [ More ]

Reply #253

Prob988 — Sun, 22 Oct 2006 15:58:50 GMT

Here is the mixed linear/exponential modeling function I use to approximate the long term evolution of the probability of rollovers for PB. The model is exclusive of caps, reserves and minimums.

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probability from baseline

$584,179,518.35$272,060,74726.91%0.40%

$353 $459,439,428.48$213,967,50537.77%1.48%

$300 $366,922,197.70$170,880,90948.57%3.93%

$245 $298... [ More ]

Reply #252

Prob988 — Sun, 22 Oct 2006 12:56:41 GMT

The PB jackpot has rolled over. The cash value is estimated at 32.6 million; the advertised annuity is $70M. The average 7th drawing in Powerball sells 17.1M in tickets, implying that if the current draw sells the average number of tickets, and the tickets are chosen in a random fashion, then the probability of various numbers of winners for this drawing will be:

088.95%

110.41%

20.61%

30.02%

Lottoreport has not yet posted the sales figures for Powerball's... [ More ]

Reply #251

Prob988 — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 11:19:48 GMT

The PB jackpot has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $27.7M; the advertised annuity is $59M.

The average sales for a 6th draw are 16.7M. This suggests a randomized probability for various numbers of winners as follows:

089.22%

110.18%

20.58%

30.02%

The long term linear/exponential function suggests the following probability for jackpot evolution, ignoring reserves, caps and minimums:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value Pr... [ More ]

Reply #250

Prob988 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 11:24:42 GMT

Here are the long term jackpot evolution figures:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probability from baseline

$570,829,869.13$272,055,08726.91%0.31%

$353 $448,937,799.17$213,961,84537.77%1.17%

$300 $358,532,887.82$170,875,24948.57%3.10%

$245 $291,481,372.50$138,918,78258.53%6.37%

$208 $241,750,604.13$115,217,30967.22%10.89%

$193 $204,866,287.47$97,638,40174.48%16.20%

$180 $177,509,927.... [ More ]

Reply #249

Prob988 — Sun, 15 Oct 2006 12:58:58 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is now $22.4M; the advertised annuity is $47.0M

Fifth drawings average $15.8M in sales. If this is the number of tickets that sell on the next drawing, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

089.76%

19.70%

20.52%

30.02%

Lottoreport has not yet updated the sales figures for the last drawing and I will delay the long term probability files until they do so.

Reply #248

Prob988 — Thu, 12 Oct 2006 12:25:44 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is now $18M; the advertised annuity is $37.0M

Fourth drawings average $15.2M. If this is the number of tickets that sell on the next drawing, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

090.11%

19.39%

20.49%

30.02%

The mixed linear/exponential modeling function I use for powerball suggests the following jackpot evolution probabilities:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated Annuit... [ More ]

Reply #247

Prob988 — Sun, 08 Oct 2006 05:23:22 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is now $13.2M; the advertised annuity is $27.0M

Third drawings average $14.9M. If this is the number of tickets that sell on the next drawing, the randomized probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

090.30%

19.21%

20.47%

30.02%

The modeling program I use to estimate long term probabilities suggests the following jackpot evolution, ignoring reserves, minimums and caps:

Average Historical A... [ More ]

Reply #246

Just6ntlc — Sun, 08 Oct 2006 04:19:22 GMT

Prob988, PB's jackpot for 10/11 is 27 million (estimated).

Reply #245

Prob988 — Thu, 05 Oct 2006 12:01:08 GMT

Powerball has rolled over. The cash jackpot is $9.7M, the advertised annuity $20M. Sales on second round drawings average $14.0M.

If average sales are obtained the distribution of probable numbers of winners is as follows:

090.46%

19.07%

20.45%

30.02%

The projection model is as follows:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probability from baseline

$560,640,221.97$271,91... [ More ]

Reply #244

ryanm — Sun, 01 Oct 2006 21:57:31 GMT

That could be good pulicity for the game.

Reply #243

Just6ntlc — Sun, 01 Oct 2006 19:23:30 GMT

Prob988, it looks like PB finds a way to get three straight PB winners in a row after a string of 100+ jackpot winners.

Reply #242

Prob988 — Sun, 01 Oct 2006 05:21:01 GMT

Powerball has been won for the third consecutive time. My last entry is thus more or less applicable and I will not update it since it will not change very much.

Reply #241

Just6ntlc — Thu, 28 Sep 2006 15:15:01 GMT

Prob988, PB Jackpot winner hit in Kansas in last draw. Still at 15 million for 9/30.

Reply #240

Just6ntlc — Mon, 25 Sep 2006 04:45:10 GMT

Prob988, congratulations to Iowa for winning the PB Jackpot in the last draw. The last PB jackpot was at 200.3 million (annunity). That's the 2nd straight PB Jackpot winner over 200 million (annunity). I would be shocked if PB wins their 2nd straight jackpot in a row in the next draw Prob988.

Reply #239

Prob988 — Sun, 24 Sep 2006 12:01:21 GMT

Powerball has been one and the the jackpot has been reset at $7.2M cash and $15 million as an advertised annuity.

A first round draw produces on average, 14.5M in sales. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the randomized distribution of winners will be as follows:

090.55%

18.99%

20.45%

30.01%

The long term model equation for the evolution of Powerball jackpots suggests this:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value

Reply #238

Just6ntlc — Fri, 22 Sep 2006 02:19:40 GMT

Prob988, I'm happy that PB's annunity jackpot rolled to over 200+ million. I hope it continues to roll.

Reply #237

Prob988 — Thu, 21 Sep 2006 14:05:02 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is now $94.5M. The advertised annuity value is represented as being $203M. The lottery has been selling above average sales on this run. Although in a temporal sense, the upcoming draw is the 14th in this series, the jackpots are better reflected by an average 15th draw. I will therefore treat the system as if it were a 15th draw. The average number of sales on a 14th draw is about $39.0M tickets. If this is the number of sales realized o... [ More ]

Reply #236

Just6ntlc — Sun, 17 Sep 2006 16:50:32 GMT

I hope PB continues to roll and set records Prob988. If it does, it reaches at least 200+ million for Saturday 9/26.

Reply #235

Prob988 — Sun, 17 Sep 2006 05:53:22 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is now $83.5M. The advertised annuity value is represented as being $179M. The lottery has been selling above average sales on this run. Although in a temporal sense, the upcoming draw is the 13th in this series, the jackpots are better reflected by an average 14th draw. I will therefore treat the system as if it were a 14th draw. The average number of sales on a 14th draw is about $40.0M tickets. If this is the number of sales reali... [ More ]

Reply #234

Just6ntlc — Thu, 14 Sep 2006 15:09:09 GMT

Prob988, I'm happy that PB rolled. However, MM's annunity jackpot is higher than PB in the next draw. I hope PB continues to roll and follow MM.

Reply #233

Prob988 — Thu, 14 Sep 2006 05:57:37 GMT

PB has rolled. The cash value is $73.9. The advertised annuity is $157M. These figures are more consistent with a 13th draw in an average run, rather than a 12th. I will therefore treat it as a 13th draw. The average 13th draw produces sales of $30.4M. If this is how many tickets sell, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

081.23%

116.88%

21.75%

30.12%

40.01%

The modeling function predicts the following... [ More ]

Reply #232

Prob988 — Sun, 10 Sep 2006 13:32:44 GMT

PB has rolled. The cash value is $64.5. The advertised annuity is $137M. The average 11th draw produces sales of $26.5M. It this is how many tickets sell, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

083.40%

115.14%

21.37%

30.08%

The long term probability modelling function is lagging on this draw, because sales are running ahead of the average values. Nonetheless here is what the model predicts for long term jackpot e... [ More ]

Reply #231

Prob988 — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 10:04:28 GMT

PB has rolled. The cash value is $55.8. The advertised annuity is $119M. The average 10th draw produces sales of $23.7. It this is how many tickets sell, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

083.93%

114.70%

21.29%

30.08%

The long term mixed linear modeling function, ignoring caps, reserves and minimums and is running about 6% behind the actual run. Nevertheless this is what it predicts for long term jackpot evo... [ More ]

Reply #230

Prob988 — Mon, 04 Sep 2006 01:51:23 GMT

PB has rolled. The cash value is $47.9M. The advertised annuity is $102M. The average 9th draw produces sales of $17.9M. It this is how many tickets sell, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

086.82%

112.27%

20.87%

30.04%

The model function developed for this game shows the following jackpot evolution, for what it's worth:

Average Historical AnnuityCalculated AnnuityCalculated Cash Value ProjectionsS... [ More ]

Reply #229

Prob988 — Thu, 31 Aug 2006 05:20:12 GMT

PB has rolled. The cash value is $41.3M. The advertised annuity is $89M. The average 8th draw produces sales of $17.9M. It this is how many tickets sell, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

088.48%

110.83%

20.66%

30.03%

A modelling program that I have written, not very accurate right now, suggests the following jackpot evolution:

$583,391,611.73$270,719,92826.78%0.47%

$457,746,939.00$212,415,1... [ More ]

Reply #228

Just6ntlc — Thu, 31 Aug 2006 04:25:03 GMT

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 9/2 is 89 million. Everyone, I think the annunity jackpot is running higher than expected for each run because it keeps rolling to at least 100+ Million.

Reply #227

Prob988 — Wed, 30 Aug 2006 00:29:40 GMT

The data on sales of the most recent drawing is now available.

Here is what the mixed linear exponential model predicts for jackpot evolution:

Average Historical AnnuityDrawing NumberCalculated AnnuityCash Value AveragesSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probability from baseline

$353 19$451,408,146.95$210,186,918.4232.69%1.81%

$300 18$345,126,992.33$160,699,755.8052.87%5.55%

$245 17$284,550,079.35$132,493,630.7064.38%10.49%

$208 16$242,702,870.95$113,008,524.2971.52... [ More ]

Reply #226

Prob988 — Sun, 27 Aug 2006 15:12:26 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value jackpot is estimated at $34.9M, and the advertised annuity value is $75M. Note that the difference between the MM jackpot and the Powerball jackpot is 5 million in both annuity and in cash, but the cash value of powerball is lower by 5 million while the advertised annuity is higher than MM.

Thus you win more money with MM, but need to beat longer odds.

The number of tickets sold on 7th draws averages 16.9M. If this is the number of ti... [ More ]

Reply #225

Just6ntlc — Sun, 27 Aug 2006 04:33:03 GMT

Prob988, PB Jackpot has rolled to 75 million for 8/30.

Reply #224

Prob988 — Thu, 24 Aug 2006 20:17:57 GMT

The powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $29.4M, the advertised annuity is $64 million dollars.

The average 6th round drawing sells 16.3M tickets. If this is how many tickets sell on this drawing the distribution of winners will have the following random probability:

089.46%

19.96%

20.55%

30.02%

My model of jackpot evolution gives the following probability:

Average Jackpots$580,995,539.01$270,526,04826.78%0.36%

$353 $455,777,230.07$212,221... [ More ]

Reply #223

Just6ntlc — Thu, 24 Aug 2006 15:33:01 GMT

Prob988, PB Jackpot is now 64 million for 8/26. What's your probability stats now

Reply #222

Prob988 — Wed, 23 Aug 2006 03:42:22 GMT

Powerball, as we know, rolled last Saturday night. The cash jackpot is $23.3M and the advertised annuity jackpot is $51M.

Powerball's fifth drawings average 15.6M in sales. The randomized probability of various numbers of winners will be, if this is the number of tickets sold:

089.85%

19.62%

20.51%

30.02%

The mixed linear/exponential modeling function suggests the following probabilities of jackpot evolution:

Average Jackpots$592,994,190.94$270,481,866... [ More ]

Reply #221

Just6ntlc — Sun, 20 Aug 2006 04:06:36 GMT

PB has rolled to 51 million Prob988. I hope it continues to roll and set new records.

Reply #220

Prob988 — Thu, 17 Aug 2006 10:27:10 GMT

Powerball has rolled. The new cash jackpot is $18.4M. The advertised annuity is $40M. The average sales for 4th round drawing is 14.9M. If this is how many tickets the randomized distribution of winners is as follows:

090.30%

19.21%

20.47%

30.02%

The mixed linear/exponential model gives the following results:

Average Jackpots$592,764,980.11$270,377,31726.78%0.29%

$353 $464,939,801.32$212,072,54237.71%1.09%

$300 $370,308,653.63$168,908,52848.57%2.... [ More ]

Reply #219

Just6ntlc — Thu, 17 Aug 2006 04:42:38 GMT

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 8/19 has rolled to 40 million.

Reply #218

Prob988 — Tue, 15 Aug 2006 02:36:17 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $13.2M and the advertised annuity value is $29M.

The average 3rd draw jackpot has sales of 14.9M. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the randomized probability distribution for numbers of winners is as follows:

090.32%

19.19%

20.47%

30.02%

The mixed linear/exponential modeling function suggests the following long term probabilities, ignoring reserves, minimums and caps:

Average Jackpots$592... [ More ]

Reply #217

Just6ntlc — Sun, 13 Aug 2006 16:27:34 GMT

Prob988, PB's estimated jackpot for 8/16 has rolled to 29 million.

Reply #216

Prob988 — Thu, 10 Aug 2006 15:09:24 GMT

Powerball has rolled over. The cash value is $9.2M, the advertised annuity is $20M. Second drawings have sold at an average of $13.8M. If this is how many tickets sell, the distribution of winners will have the following probability:

090.98%

18.60%

20.41%

30.01%

The long term mixed linear/exponential modeling function gives the following predictions for jackpot evolution:

Average Jackpots$592,590,519.86$270,297,74026.78%0.24%

$353 $464,765,... [ More ]

Reply #215

Prob988 — Tue, 08 Aug 2006 13:48:01 GMT

Here is a slightly different way of looking at the long term probability, by rejecting any modelling function and looking at the actual accumulated sales data since the matrix change. When one does this this is what the data looks like, ignoring the presence of caps, minimum and reserves:

Drawing NumberCalculated AnnuityCash Value AveragesSingle Draw Rollover ProbabilityOverall Probability from baseline

19$460,038,075.25$209,836,722.0732.69%0.87%

18$351,544,295.82$160,349,559.455... [ More ]

Reply #214

Prob988 — Mon, 07 Aug 2006 12:57:58 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has been won, and the cash value has been reset at $6.9M, and the advertised set annuity value is now $15M. First drawing Powerball Sales average 14.5M. If this is how many tickets sell, the probability for randomized tickets of total numbers of winners is as follows:

090.52%

19.01%

20.45%

30.01%

Long term jackpot evolution, ignoring minimums, caps and reserves, is modelled by a mixed linear/exponential function that suggests the following

Reply #213

Just6ntlc — Sun, 06 Aug 2006 06:16:38 GMT

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 8/9 has reseted to 15 million. Someone in Wisconsin won jackpot.

Reply #212

Just6ntlc — Fri, 04 Aug 2006 04:40:22 GMT

Prob988, I hope PB continues to roll, set new roll records, and hit the cap annunity value of 390 million.

Reply #211

Prob988 — Thu, 03 Aug 2006 11:51:20 GMT

The Powerball jackpot has rolled. The cash value is $92.7M; the advertised annuity jackpot is $204M. The average number of tickets sold on a 15th draw is 40M. If this is the number of tickets that sell, the probability distribution for numbers of winners is:

076.58%

120.43%

22.73%

30.24%

40.02%

The long term probability looks like this, ignoring caps:

Average Jackpots$592,077,809.46$270,063,87826.37%1.44%

$353 $462,750,509.21$211,073,94237.53%5.47