Here is a slightly different way of looking at the long term probability, by rejecting any modelling function and looking at the actual accumulated sales data since the matrix change. When one does this this is what the data looks like, ignoring the presence of caps, minimum and reserves:
Drawing Number | Calculated Annuity | Cash Value Averages | Single Draw Rollover Probability | Overall Probability from baseline |
19 | $460,038,075.25 | $209,836,722.07 | 32.69% | 0.87% |
18 | $351,544,295.82 | $160,349,559.45 | 52.87% | 2.67% |
17 | $289,706,256.33 | $132,143,434.34 | 64.38% | 5.05% |
16 | $246,987,847.66 | $112,658,327.93 | 71.52% | 7.84% |
15 | $214,467,262.07 | $97,824,744.70 | 76.58% | 10.96% |
14 | $188,580,927.76 | $86,017,236.08 | 77.64% | 14.32% |
13 | $164,024,357.05 | $74,816,271.25 | 81.23% | 18.44% |
12 | $143,858,001.05 | $65,617,810.80 | 83.40% | 22.70% |
11 | $126,245,498.10 | $57,584,236.88 | 85.04% | 27.22% |
10 | $110,520,530.77 | $50,411,622.74 | 86.61% | 32.01% |
9 | $96,578,358.57 | $44,052,193.23 | 86.82% | 36.96% |
8 | $82,866,263.65 | $37,797,708.65 | 88.48% | 42.57% |
7 | $70,992,010.15 | $32,381,516.89 | 89.07% | 48.11% |
6 | $59,764,774.30 | $27,260,448.67 | 89.46% | 54.01% |
5 | $48,961,535.70 | $22,332,777.90 | 89.85% | 60.37% |
4 | $38,575,439.90 | $17,595,378.07 | 90.33% | 67.19% |
3 | $28,705,422.66 | $13,093,376.66 | 90.32% | 74.39% |
2 | $18,828,544.33 | $8,588,245.70 | 90.98% | 82.36% |
1 | $9,659,027.24 | $4,405,762.75 | 90.52% | 90.52% |
The annuity calculations are the weakest, since they depend on financial factors not affected by sales. (An Argentine style collapse of the US currency under a spiral of debt accumulated for arbitrary wars, for instance, would affect interest rates.)
We see that on averate we have a chance that is slightly lower than half a chance on any reset jackpot of reaching an eigth draw, which on average compares to a $37.78M cash jackpot.