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# Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.

Topic closed. 310 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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New Jersey
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September 4, 2005
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 Posted: May 25, 2006, 9:09 am - IP Logged

The powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value is 12.4 million.  The advertised annuity value is \$28M.

The average number of tickets sold for a second drawing in this matrix is 15.0M.  If this is the number of tickets sold in this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners will be as follows:

 0 90.24% 1 9.26% 2 0.48% 3 0.02%

The mixed linear/exponential modeling function predicts the following long term probabilities for jackpot evolution, ignoring reserves and caps:

 Average Jackpots \$603,589,292.64 \$267,162,474 26.06% 0.28% \$353 \$469,128,735.57 \$207,647,145 37.37% 1.09% \$300 \$370,715,647.44 \$164,087,254 48.65% 2.92% \$245 \$298,686,078.87 \$132,205,314 59.02% 6.01% \$208 \$245,966,884.22 \$108,870,588 67.98% 10.17% \$193 \$207,381,154.24 \$91,791,658 75.39% 14.97% \$173 \$179,139,854.87 \$79,291,411 81.32% 19.85% \$152 \$158,469,752.46 \$70,142,349 85.96% 24.41% \$126 \$143,341,088.31 \$63,446,055 85.67% 28.40% \$111 \$127,871,666.39 \$56,598,934 86.22% 33.15% \$99 \$113,043,031.97 \$50,035,440 86.77% 38.45% \$86 \$98,855,185.05 \$43,755,574 87.33% 44.31% \$75 \$85,308,125.62 \$37,759,334 87.89% 50.74% \$64 \$72,401,853.68 \$32,046,722 88.45% 57.74% \$54 \$60,136,369.24 \$26,617,737 89.02% 65.27% \$45 \$48,511,672.30 \$21,472,380 89.60% 73.32% \$34 \$37,527,762.85 \$16,610,649 90.17% 81.83% \$26 \$27,184,640.89 \$12,032,546 90.75% 90.75%

New Jersey
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 Posted: May 28, 2006, 1:38 am - IP Logged

The powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value is 16.9 million.  The advertised annuity value is \$38M.

The average number of tickets sold for a fourth drawing in this matrix is 14.3M.  If this is the number of tickets sold in this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners viewed as a random distribution will be as follows:

 0 90.68% 1 8.87% 2 0.43% 3 0.01%

The mixed linear/exponential model for powerball suggests, disregarding reserves and caps, the following probabilities for jackpot evolution:

 Average Jackpots \$603,520,560.26 \$267,132,051 26.06% 0.31% \$353 \$469,060,003.20 \$207,616,723 37.37% 1.20% \$300 \$370,646,915.07 \$164,056,831 48.65% 3.22% \$245 \$298,617,346.50 \$132,174,891 59.02% 6.62% \$208 \$245,898,151.85 \$108,840,166 67.98% 11.21% \$193 \$207,312,421.86 \$91,761,236 75.39% 16.50% \$173 \$179,071,122.49 \$79,260,989 81.32% 21.88% \$152 \$158,401,020.09 \$70,111,927 85.96% 26.91% \$126 \$143,272,355.93 \$63,415,633 85.66% 31.30% \$111 \$127,799,409.28 \$56,566,952 86.21% 36.54% \$99 \$112,968,932.38 \$50,002,642 86.77% 42.38% \$86 \$98,780,925.24 \$43,722,705 87.33% 48.85% \$75 \$85,235,387.86 \$37,727,139 87.89% 55.93% \$64 \$72,332,320.23 \$32,015,945 88.46% 63.64% \$54 \$60,071,722.36 \$26,589,123 89.03% 71.94% \$45 \$48,453,594.24 \$21,446,673 89.60% 80.81% \$34 \$37,477,935.88 \$16,588,595 90.18% 90.18%

New Jersey
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 Posted: June 1, 2006, 6:18 am - IP Logged

The powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value is 21.3 million.  The advertised annuity value is \$48M.

The average number of tickets sold for a 5th drawing in this matrix is 15.3M.  If this is the number of tickets sold in this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners viewed as a random distribution will be as follows:

 0 90.06% 1 9.43% 2 0.49% 3 0.02%

The mixed linear/exponential model for powerball suggests, disregarding reserves and caps, the following probabilities for jackpot evolution:

 Average Jackpots \$603,612,793.79 \$267,172,876 26.06% 0.35% \$353 \$469,152,236.72 \$207,657,547 37.37% 1.33% \$300 \$370,739,148.59 \$164,097,656 48.65% 3.57% \$245 \$298,709,580.02 \$132,215,716 59.02% 7.34% \$208 \$245,990,385.37 \$108,880,990 67.98% 12.43% \$193 \$207,404,655.39 \$91,802,061 75.39% 18.29% \$173 \$179,163,356.01 \$79,301,813 81.32% 24.25% \$152 \$158,493,253.61 \$70,152,752 85.96% 29.83% \$126 \$143,364,589.46 \$63,456,458 85.66% 34.70% \$111 \$127,892,825.29 \$56,608,300 86.21% 40.50% \$99 \$113,061,918.40 \$50,043,800 86.77% 46.98% \$86 \$98,871,868.79 \$43,762,958 87.33% 54.15% \$75 \$85,322,676.46 \$37,765,775 87.89% 62.00% \$64 \$72,414,341.42 \$32,052,249 88.45% 70.55% \$54 \$60,146,863.66 \$26,622,382 89.02% 79.76% \$45 \$48,520,243.18 \$21,476,173 89.59% 89.59%

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 Posted: June 4, 2006, 12:15 pm - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value is \$26.9M, the advertised jackpot is \$60M.

The average number of tickets sold on a 6th drawing is 15.6M.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows:

 0 89.87% 1 9.60% 2 0.51% 3 0.02%

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 Posted: June 5, 2006, 8:55 pm - IP Logged

The mixed linear/exponential modeling function predicts the following long term probabilities for jackpot evolution, ignoring reserves and caps:

 \$353 \$469,448,726.32 \$207,788,781 37.37% 1.49% \$300 \$371,035,638.19 \$164,228,889 48.65% 3.98% \$245 \$299,006,069.61 \$132,346,949 59.02% 8.18% \$208 \$246,286,874.97 \$109,012,223 67.98% 13.86% \$193 \$207,701,144.98 \$91,933,294 75.39% 20.39% \$173 \$179,459,845.61 \$79,433,046 81.32% 27.04% \$152 \$158,789,743.20 \$70,283,985 85.96% 33.25% \$126 \$143,661,079.05 \$63,587,691 85.66% 38.68% \$111 \$128,181,712.58 \$56,736,168 86.20% 45.16% \$99 \$113,340,093.36 \$50,166,927 86.76% 52.39% \$86 \$99,136,221.40 \$43,879,967 87.31% 60.38% \$75 \$85,570,096.68 \$37,875,289 87.87% 69.16% \$64 \$72,641,719.22 \$32,152,892 88.43% 78.70% \$55 \$60,351,089.01 \$26,712,777 89.00% 89.00%

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 Posted: June 6, 2006, 9:24 am - IP Logged

Prob988, with PB rolling in the previous draw, it's now the current jackpot leader surpassing CA SLP. I would be surprised if both PB and CA SLP continue to roll.

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 Posted: June 8, 2006, 7:46 am - IP Logged

The Powerball has rolled over.  The cash jackpot is \$32.7M, the advertised annuity jackpot is \$73M.  The average sales for 6th drawing is \$15.9M.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probabilities for various numbers of winners will be as follows:

 0 89.69% 1 9.76% 2 0.53% 3 0.02%

The mixed linear/exponential function gives the following model, ignoring caps and reserves, for jackpot evolution is as follows:

 Average Jackpots \$604,123,614.19 \$267,398,977 26.06% 0.44% \$353 \$469,663,057.13 \$207,883,648 37.37% 1.67% \$300 \$371,249,969.00 \$164,323,757 48.65% 4.47% \$245 \$299,220,400.42 \$132,441,817 59.02% 9.18% \$208 \$246,501,205.78 \$109,107,091 67.98% 15.56% \$193 \$207,915,475.79 \$92,028,161 75.39% 22.88% \$173 \$179,674,176.42 \$79,527,914 81.32% 30.35% \$152 \$159,004,074.02 \$70,378,852 85.96% 37.32% \$126 \$143,875,409.86 \$63,682,558 85.64% 43.42% \$111 \$128,382,304.24 \$56,824,954 86.19% 50.70% \$99 \$113,526,196.46 \$50,249,300 86.74% 58.82% \$86 \$99,307,086.52 \$43,955,596 87.30% 67.81% \$75 \$85,724,974.43 \$37,943,841 87.86% 77.68% \$66 \$72,779,860.17 \$32,214,036 88.42% 88.42%

The model is fairly accurate right now.  If it stays so, it suggests that there is about a 10% chance of hitting the cap.  There is a 90% chance of not hitting the cap.

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 Posted: June 11, 2006, 12:12 am - IP Logged

Prob988, PB Jackpot has rolled to 86 million for 6/14.

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 Posted: June 11, 2006, 8:37 am - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is \$39M.  The advertised annuity jackpot is \$86M.  Average sales for 8th drawings in a run are 17.1M.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

 0 88.96% 1 10.41% 2 0.61% 3 0.02%

The mixed linear/exponential modelling function for Powerball jackpot evolution suggests, ignoring caps and reserves the following model evolution for the jackpot and probabilities for rollovers:

 \$769,897,866.67 \$349,139,730 15.92% 0.08% Average Jackpots \$590,587,777.77 \$267,824,690 26.06% 0.49% \$353 \$459,348,848.17 \$208,309,361 37.37% 1.88% \$300 \$363,293,702.88 \$164,749,470 48.65% 5.03% \$245 \$292,989,937.34 \$132,867,530 59.02% 10.34% \$208 \$241,533,875.98 \$109,532,804 67.98% 17.51% \$193 \$203,872,646.46 \$92,453,875 75.39% 25.76% \$173 \$176,307,998.65 \$79,953,627 81.32% 34.17% \$152 \$156,133,144.60 \$70,804,566 85.96% 42.02% \$126 \$141,366,957.90 \$64,108,272 85.56% 48.89% \$111 \$126,148,779.36 \$57,207,005 86.11% 57.14% \$99 \$111,555,618.76 \$50,589,176 86.66% 66.35% \$86 \$97,587,476.11 \$44,254,786 87.22% 76.56% \$75 \$84,244,351.41 \$38,203,834 87.78% 87.78%

Right now the model is functioning with reasonable accuracy.  It suggests that we have slightly less than even odds of seeing a jackpot of \$70M cash, 156M advertised annuity.

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 Posted: June 14, 2006, 12:41 pm - IP Logged

I like these calculations. You probably need a computer to figure these out (a scientific calculator probably would not be as accurate).

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 Posted: June 15, 2006, 7:53 am - IP Logged

I like these calculations. You probably need a computer to figure these out (a scientific calculator probably would not be as accurate).

I have built spreadsheets for these purposes.  They involved some work to set up, but they are easy to use now, if you know how to use them and maintain them.

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 Posted: June 15, 2006, 8:00 am - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is \$45.6M.  The advertised annuity jackpot is \$100M.  Average sales for 8th drawings in a run are 19.8M.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

 0 87.33% 1 11.83% 2 0.80% 3 0.04%

The mixed linear/exponential modelling programs suggests the following probability for long term jackpot evolutions:

 Average Jackpots \$587,565,399.78 \$267,929,822 26.06% 0.56% \$353 \$457,049,328.43 \$208,414,494 37.37% 2.14% \$300 \$361,523,250.65 \$164,854,602 48.65% 5.72% \$245 \$291,606,715.15 \$132,972,662 59.02% 11.76% \$208 \$240,434,071.51 \$109,637,937 67.98% 19.93% \$193 \$202,980,278.39 \$92,559,007 75.39% 29.32% \$173 \$175,567,455.44 \$80,058,760 81.32% 38.88% \$152 \$155,503,723.60 \$70,909,698 85.96% 47.81% \$126 \$140,818,868.40 \$64,213,404 85.53% 55.62% \$111 \$125,651,996.96 \$57,297,311 86.08% 65.03% \$99 \$111,109,119.29 \$50,665,758 86.64% 75.55% \$86 \$97,190,235.39 \$44,318,747 87.20% 87.20%

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 Posted: June 18, 2006, 2:05 am - IP Logged

Prob988, PB jackpot has reseted to 15 million for 6/21. Winning jackpot in PB was sold in Oklahoma. Once again, both MM and PB won one day apart.

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 Posted: June 18, 2006, 11:13 am - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot has been won.  The cash value is now \$6.8M, the annuity is the base of \$15M.

On average first draws sell 14.6 million tickets.  If this is how many tickets sell, the probability of various numbers of winners will be as follows:

 0 90.49% 1 9.04% 2 0.45% 3 0.02%

The mixed linear/exponential model I have developed for the probability of long term jackpot evolution makes the following predictions, exclusive of jackpot minimums, reserves, and caps:

 Average Jackpots \$588,124,402.72 \$268,184,728 26.06% 0.23% \$353 \$457,608,331.36 \$208,669,399 37.37% 0.90% \$300 \$362,082,253.58 \$165,109,508 48.65% 2.40% \$245 \$292,165,718.08 \$133,227,567 59.02% 4.93% \$208 \$240,993,074.45 \$109,892,842 67.98% 8.35% \$193 \$203,539,281.32 \$92,813,912 75.39% 12.28% \$173 \$176,126,458.37 \$80,313,665 81.32% 16.29% \$152 \$156,062,726.53 \$71,164,603 85.96% 20.03% \$126 \$141,377,871.33 \$64,468,309 85.44% 23.30% \$111 \$126,110,666.03 \$57,506,464 86.00% 27.27% \$99 \$111,477,227.28 \$50,833,616 86.57% 31.71% \$86 \$97,477,555.08 \$44,449,765 87.13% 36.63% \$75 \$84,111,649.43 \$38,354,912 87.70% 42.03% \$66 \$71,379,510.33 \$32,549,057 88.28% 47.93% \$55 \$59,281,137.78 \$27,032,199 88.86% 54.29% \$46 \$47,816,531.77 \$21,804,338 89.44% 61.10% \$35 \$36,985,692.32 \$16,865,476 90.03% 68.31% \$27 \$26,788,619.42 \$12,215,610 90.62% 75.88% \$20 \$17,225,313.06 \$7,854,743 91.21% 83.74% \$15 \$8,295,773.26 \$3,782,873 91.81% 91.81%

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 Posted: June 18, 2006, 11:21 am - IP Logged

I would be surprised Prob988 to see PB's sales actually fall in this first drawing. However, I like the way PB announces guaranteed jackpots at the start like CA SLP.

 Page 13 of 21