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Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.

Topic closed. 310 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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Morrison, IL
United States
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May 13, 2004
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Posted: January 6, 2006, 1:09 am - IP Logged

Prob988, in the PB draw on 12/31/05, I saw the guaranteed jackpot at 41 million. However, the estimated grand prize draw was 39.9 million based upon the video. Why does PB want to save money before the estimated grand prize on draw?

That $41 million jackpot was not guaranteed.

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    New Jersey
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    September 4, 2005
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    Posted: January 8, 2006, 1:26 am - IP Logged

    The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $32.3M; the annuity value is $65M.  It is reasonable to assume that the lottery will have $14.7M in sales, near the figure for the last lottery run at this level.  If the lottery sells this amount of tickets on this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners is as follows:

     

    090.43%
    19.10%
    20.46%
    30.02%

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      New Jersey
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      Posted: January 12, 2006, 8:31 am - IP Logged

      The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $37.8M; the annuity value is $76M.  It is reasonable to assume that the lottery will have $17.0M in sales, near the figure for the last lottery run at this level.  If the lottery sells this amount of tickets on this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners is as follows:

      089.02%
      110.36%
      20.60%
      30.02%

       

      This run is close enough in sales to the last run to make a qualative estimate of the long term probability of nearly matcing the last record breaking run where the jackpot reached a capped annuity value of $340M.  There is a slightly less than 8% chance of matching it, and less than a 3% chance of exceeding it.

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        New Jersey
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        Posted: January 15, 2006, 10:45 am - IP Logged

        The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $43.1M; the annuity value is $87M.  It is reasonable to assume that the lottery will have $16.70M in sales, near the figure for the last lottery run at this level.  If the lottery sells this amount of tickets on this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners is as follows:

        089.20%
        110.20%
        20.58%
        30.02%

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          New Jersey
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          Posted: January 19, 2006, 7:33 am - IP Logged

          The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $50.2M; the annuity value is $101M.  It is reasonable to assume that the lottery will have $20.6M in sales, near the figure for the last lottery run at this level.  If the lottery sells this amount of tickets on this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners is as follows:

          087.03%
          112.09%
          20.84%
          30.04%

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            New Jersey
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            Posted: January 22, 2006, 9:38 am - IP Logged

            The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $56.5M; the annuity value is $115M.  The Powerball sales figures are not as regular as those in MM, and not as many averages are available for large jackpots, since the maxtrix change is comparatively recent, the end of Aug, 2005.   My crude estimate is to assume that the lottery will have $23.6M in sales, near the average figures for the last lottery runs at this level.  If the lottery sells this amount of tickets on this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners is as follows:

            085.08%
            113.74%
            21.11%
            30.06%

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              New Jersey
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              Posted: January 26, 2006, 9:08 am - IP Logged

              The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $66.6M; the annuity value is $135M.    Powerball is therefore expecting 21.3M in sales.  If this is correct, the probabilities for various numbers of winners are given in the following table:

               

              086.43%
              112.60%
              20.92%
              30.04%

               

              A crude estimate suggests that there is a 4% chance of exceeding the record $340M annuity jackpot and a 12% of matching it.

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                Atlanta
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                May 24, 2005
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                Posted: January 28, 2006, 11:44 pm - IP Logged

                thanks for your work, prob988....I'm sure you know it is appreciated

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                  New Jersey
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                  Posted: January 29, 2006, 12:18 am - IP Logged

                  thanks for your work, prob988....I'm sure you know it is appreciated

                  Thanks for the acknowledgment.  I appreciate that.

                  The powerball has rolled over again, and I will be back with a probability distribution tomorrow. 

                   

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                    New Jersey
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                    Posted: January 29, 2006, 10:06 am - IP Logged

                    The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $75.5M; the annuity value is $156M.    The previous cash value of the jackpot reached some 68.9M.  Powerball is therefore expecting 21.9M in sales.    This seems way too low, since the last jackpot sold 28.8M  Extrapolating from the last large run which had 147M and 167M jackpots and using the sales figures for those drawings, I estimate that this drawing should produce about 30.2M in sales.  If this is correct, the probabilities for various numbers of winners are given in the following table:

                    081.33%
                    116.81%
                    21.74%
                    30.12%
                    40.01%

                     

                    A crude estimate suggests that there is a 5% chance of exceeding the record $340M annuity jackpot and a 15% of matching it.

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                      New Jersey
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                      Posted: February 2, 2006, 10:10 pm - IP Logged

                      The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $87.9M; the annuity value is $180M.    The previous cash value of the jackpot reached some 68.9M.  Using the sales figures for those drawings, I estimate that this drawing should produce about 36.7M in sales.  If this is correct, the probabilities for various numbers of winners are given in the following table:

                      077.79%
                      119.54%
                      22.45%
                      30.21%
                      40.01%

                       

                      Based on sales of the last large run we can estimate that there is a 19% of this run reaching the last capped jackpot and a 6% chance of exceeding it.  That run went 180, 205, 240, 300, 340 annuity.

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                        Morrison, IL
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                        Posted: February 2, 2006, 11:45 pm - IP Logged

                        This time four more rollovers should produce $365 million annuity.

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                          New Jersey
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                          Posted: February 5, 2006, 1:16 am - IP Logged

                          The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $101.1; the annuity value is $210M.    The $205M annuity jackpot last time out sold about 50.0M in tickets.  If the value were the same now, this would represent the probability of various numbers of winners:

                          071.02%
                          124.30%
                          24.16%
                          30.47%
                          40.04%

                           

                          The jackpot has a roughly 50% chance of reaching $300M, a 25% chance of triggering the cap and an 8% chance of rolling once beyond that, based on previous sales figures.


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                            Posted: February 6, 2006, 5:53 pm - IP Logged

                            Prob988, the PB record jackpot in the 15th roll is currently at 221.5 million. If it rolls, I don't expect to see a new records from the old matrix. However, if it rolls on the 17th roll and on, PB jackpot records could continue. However, PB sales will not get any records for the next two rolls. I hope it triggers the cap again, but only after one cap roll, it will be hit.

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                              New Jersey
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                              Posted: February 9, 2006, 7:28 am - IP Logged

                              The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $120.1M; the annuity value is $250M.    The $240M annuity jackpot last time out sold about 63.2M in tickets.  If the value were the same now, this would represent the probability of various numbers of winners:

                              064.88%
                              128.07%
                              26.07%
                              30.88%
                              40.09%
                              50.01%

                              Roughly there is a 34% of two rolls and a 11% chance of 3 rolls.
                                 
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