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Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.

Topic closed. 310 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
United States
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August 3, 2005
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Posted: December 16, 2005, 11:49 am - IP Logged

i love odds feb 22 2006  is  #20 in  powerball draws  it could be 365 million + whats the odds on that   

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    New Jersey
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    September 4, 2005
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    Posted: December 16, 2005, 7:05 pm - IP Logged

    i love odds feb 22 2006  is  #20 in  powerball draws  it could be 365 million + whats the odds on that   

    If sales closely tracked the last large jackpot, that with an advertised annuity of $340M, about 1%.

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      New Jersey
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      Posted: December 18, 2005, 8:12 am - IP Logged

      The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $9.7M; the annuity value is $20M.  The last two similar level drawings averaged $13M in sales.  If the lottery sells a similar amount of tickets on this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners is as follows:

      091.49%
      18.14%
      20.36%
      30.01%
       

       

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        New Jersey
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        Posted: December 23, 2005, 9:48 am - IP Logged

        The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $12.1M; the annuity value is $25M.  The last $25M jackpot had $13.77M in sales.  If the lottery sells a similar amount of tickets on this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners is as follows:

        091.01%
        18.58%
        20.40%
        30.01%

        A crude estimate of the long term probabilities using previous sales figures for the $340M annuity jackpot suggests that the Powerball jackpot has a 4% chance of reaching the maximum capped jackpot and a 1% chance of rolling beyond it.    There is a 52% chance it will end up in the neighborhood of an $90M annuity jackpot.


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          Member #9579
          December 12, 2004
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          Posted: December 23, 2005, 3:03 pm - IP Logged

          wow,only went up 5 million,pb,but at least that would pay for the arab oil we're burning this winter!

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            Morrison, IL
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            May 13, 2004
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            Posted: December 24, 2005, 12:29 am - IP Logged

            Yeah, Powerball's guaranteed cash jackpot for the last drawing was $2.7 million above the actual amount of sales allocated to it. The $5 million rollovers are Powerball's guaranteed minimum rollovers.


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              Posted: December 24, 2005, 9:08 am - IP Logged

              i see,thanks ryanm.

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                New Jersey
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                Posted: December 25, 2005, 11:55 am - IP Logged

                The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $14.6M; the annuity value is $30M.  It is reasonable to assume that the lottery will have $13.0M in sales.  If the lottery sells this amount of tickets on this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners is as follows:

                091.49%
                18.14%
                20.36%
                30.01%

                A crude estimate of the long term probabilities using previous sales figures for the $340M annuity jackpot suggests that the Powerball jackpot has a 5% chance of reaching the maximum capped jackpot and a 1-2% chance of rolling beyond it.    There is a 50% chance it will end up in the neighborhood of an $108M annuity jackpot.

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                  Morrison, IL
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                  Posted: December 25, 2005, 12:40 pm - IP Logged

                  I think Powerball is once again underestimating its cash jackpot. Based on sales, last night's cash jackpot should have been $12.5 million. Sales of $13 million for the next drawing would support a cash jackpot of $16.4 million. My theory that Powerball funds its set prize reserve by drawing down the jackpot still holds.

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                    New Jersey
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                    Posted: December 25, 2005, 6:53 pm - IP Logged

                    I think Powerball is once again underestimating its cash jackpot. Based on sales, last night's cash jackpot should have been $12.5 million. Sales of $13 million for the next drawing would support a cash jackpot of $16.4 million. My theory that Powerball funds its set prize reserve by drawing down the jackpot still holds.

                    I agree that something is going on and your explanation sounds reasonable.  I am no longer back calculating a sales projection from predicted jackpots, but making estimates based on previous sales.  Actually at sales levels in the low tens of millions, the jackpot rollover/winner distribution probabilities do not vary all that much.

                    MM is far more predictable and regular than PB these days.  I have much greater confidence in making MM projections than I do with PB.  Some of the unpredictability in PB may be a result of changed policies and some may have to do with changes in the buying public.

                     

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                      New Jersey
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                      Posted: December 29, 2005, 5:25 am - IP Logged

                      The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $19.9M; the annuity value is $41M.  It is reasonable to assume that the lottery will have $14.3M in sales, comparable to the last jackpot at this level.  If the lottery sells this amount of tickets on this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners is as follows:

                      090.68%
                      18.87%
                      20.43%
                      30.01%

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                        New Jersey
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                        Posted: January 2, 2006, 9:53 am - IP Logged

                        The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $23.2M; the annuity value is $47M.  It is reasonable to assume that the lottery will have $14.3M in sales, comparable to the last jackpot at this level.  If the lottery sells this amount of tickets on this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners is as follows:

                        090.68%
                        18.87%
                        20.43%
                        30.01%


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                          Posted: January 4, 2006, 3:23 pm - IP Logged

                          Prob988, in the PB draw on 12/31/05, I saw the guaranteed jackpot at 41 million. However, the estimated grand prize draw was 39.9 million based upon the video. Why does PB want to save money before the estimated grand prize on draw?

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                            New Jersey
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                            Posted: January 5, 2006, 11:01 pm - IP Logged

                            Prob988, in the PB draw on 12/31/05, I saw the guaranteed jackpot at 41 million. However, the estimated grand prize draw was 39.9 million based upon the video. Why does PB want to save money before the estimated grand prize on draw?

                            I'm sorry, but I don't know the answer to that question.

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                              New Jersey
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                              Posted: January 5, 2006, 11:09 pm - IP Logged

                              The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $28.3M; the annuity value is $57M.  It is reasonable to assume that the lottery will have $14.2M in sales, comparable to the last jackpot at this level.  (My last prediction in this regard was over a million bucks low.)   If the lottery sells this amount of tickets on this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners is as follows:

                              090.74%
                              18.82%
                              20.43%
                              30.01%

                                 
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