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# Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.

Topic closed. 310 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

 Page 12 of 21
New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: May 4, 2006, 6:50 am - IP Logged

Powerball has rolled.  The cash jackpot is \$32.6M.  The annuity jackpot is \$73M.

Since the matrix change, 7th draws in a series have sold 16.3M tickets on average.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

 0 89.44% 1 9.98% 2 0.56% 3 0.02%

The mixed linear/exponential model (switch to exponential at draw 13) suggests the following long term probabilities for jackpot evolution, ignoring caps and reserves, will apply for the current \$32.6M cash, \$73M advertised annuity jackpot:

 Average Jackpots \$603,138,056.92 \$266,962,747 26.06% 0.44% \$353 \$468,677,499.85 \$207,447,418 37.37% 1.68% \$300 \$370,264,411.72 \$163,887,526 48.65% 4.50% \$245 \$298,234,843.15 \$132,005,586 59.02% 9.25% \$208 \$245,515,648.50 \$108,670,861 67.98% 15.66% \$193 \$206,929,918.51 \$91,591,931 75.39% 23.04% \$173 \$178,688,619.14 \$79,091,684 81.32% 30.56% \$152 \$158,018,516.74 \$69,942,622 85.96% 37.58% \$126 \$142,889,852.58 \$63,246,328 85.77% 43.72% \$111 \$127,538,746.36 \$56,451,576 86.31% 50.98% \$96 \$112,813,752.60 \$49,933,956 86.85% 59.07% \$83 \$98,714,871.29 \$43,693,468 87.39% 68.01% \$72 \$85,242,102.44 \$37,730,111 87.94% 77.82% \$62 \$72,395,446.04 \$32,043,886 88.49% 88.49%

United States
Member #16612
June 2, 2005
3493 Posts
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 Posted: May 5, 2006, 2:13 pm - IP Logged

At this point, I hope PB contines to roll. Since they changed the matrix, there were fewer jackpot winners. I hope sales continue this way with interest rates, but high gas prices will limit how people play.

United States
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June 2, 2005
3493 Posts
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 Posted: May 7, 2006, 12:26 am - IP Logged

Prob988, I have the fyi update for you. PB Jackpot has rolled to 85 million for 5/10/06

Morrison, IL
United States
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May 13, 2004
1884 Posts
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 Posted: May 7, 2006, 12:56 am - IP Logged

\$38.3 million cash, just barely staying ahead of Mega, for now.

New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: May 7, 2006, 12:59 am - IP Logged

Powerball has rolled.  The cash jackpot is \$38.3  The annuity jackpot is \$85M.

Since the matrix change, 8th draws in a series have sold 16.9M tickets on average.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

 0 89.08% 1 10.30% 2 0.60% 3 0.02%

The recent sales figures have not been released by lottoreport.  When they are available I may update the long term prediction.

New Jersey
United States
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September 4, 2005
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 Posted: May 7, 2006, 8:19 am - IP Logged

The mixed linear/exponential model (switch to exponential at draw 13) suggests the following long term probabilities for jackpot evolution, ignoring caps and reserves, will apply for the current \$32.6M cash, \$73M advertised annuity jackpot:

 Average Jackpots \$602,999,231.24 \$266,901,299 26.06% 0.50% \$353 \$468,538,674.17 \$207,385,971 37.37% 1.90% \$300 \$370,125,586.04 \$163,826,079 48.65% 5.09% \$245 \$298,096,017.47 \$131,944,139 59.02% 10.45% \$208 \$245,376,822.82 \$108,609,413 67.98% 17.71% \$193 \$206,791,092.84 \$91,530,484 75.39% 26.06% \$173 \$178,549,793.46 \$79,030,236 81.32% 34.56% \$152 \$157,879,691.06 \$69,881,175 85.96% 42.50% \$126 \$142,751,026.90 \$63,184,881 85.78% 49.44% \$111 \$127,414,159.22 \$56,396,431 86.32% 57.64% \$96 \$112,702,918.58 \$49,884,898 86.86% 66.77% \$83 \$98,617,304.99 \$43,650,283 87.40% 76.87% \$72 \$85,157,318.45 \$37,692,584 87.95% 87.95%

United States
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June 2, 2005
3493 Posts
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 Posted: May 10, 2006, 1:01 pm - IP Logged

According to my roll records, 87.7 million is the roll 7 record and 101.3 million is the roll 8 record. I hope it continues to roll Prob988.

New Jersey
United States
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September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: May 11, 2006, 7:01 am - IP Logged

Powerball has rolled.  The cash jackpot is \$44.7M  The advertised annuity jackpot is \$100M.

Since the matrix change, 9th draws in a series have sold 18.7M tickets on average.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

 0 87.99% 1 11.26% 2 0.72% 3 0.03%

The mixed linear/exponential model (switch to exponential at draw 13) suggests the following long term probabilities for jackpot evolution, ignoring caps and reserves, will apply for the current \$44.7M cash, \$100M advertised annuity jackpot.

 Average Jackpots \$603,151,370.69 \$266,968,639 26.06% 0.56% \$353 \$468,690,813.62 \$207,453,311 37.37% 2.16% \$300 \$370,277,725.49 \$163,893,419 48.65% 5.78% \$245 \$298,248,156.92 \$132,011,479 59.02% 11.88% \$208 \$245,528,962.27 \$108,676,754 67.98% 20.12% \$193 \$206,943,232.28 \$91,597,824 75.39% 29.60% \$173 \$178,701,932.91 \$79,097,577 81.32% 39.26% \$152 \$158,031,830.51 \$69,948,515 85.96% 48.28% \$126 \$142,903,166.35 \$63,252,221 85.76% 56.17% \$111 \$127,544,843.10 \$56,454,275 86.30% 65.50% \$96 \$112,813,742.77 \$49,933,952 86.84% 75.89% \$83 \$98,709,865.36 \$43,691,252 87.39% 87.39%

New Jersey
United States
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September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: May 14, 2006, 7:28 am - IP Logged

Powerball has rolled.  The cash jackpot is \$50.2M. The advertised annuity jackpot is \$114M.    Although the advertised annuity for PB is higher, the actual cash value of MM is now higher than PB.    PB is still at better bet, though, since the odds of winning the PB are higher.  (MM is a better bet when its cash value is 20% larger than PB.)

Since the matrix change, 10th draws in a series have sold 19.7M tickets on average.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

 0 87.39% 1 11.78% 2 0.79% 3 0.04%

Lottoreport has not updated the sales figure, so I will skip posting the long range values until these figures are available.

United States
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June 2, 2005
3493 Posts
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 Posted: May 14, 2006, 1:46 pm - IP Logged

Prob988, it set a new roll 8 record in the draw. The jackpot hit 101.9 million according to Jake649. I hope it continues to roll.

New Jersey
United States
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September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: May 14, 2006, 2:26 pm - IP Logged

The mixed linear/exponential jackpot evolution model suggests the following:

 Average Jackpots \$603,707,212.14 \$267,214,668 26.06% 0.64% \$353 \$469,246,655.07 \$207,699,339 37.37% 2.46% \$300 \$370,833,566.94 \$164,139,448 48.65% 6.59% \$245 \$298,803,998.37 \$132,257,507 59.02% 13.55% \$208 \$246,084,803.72 \$108,922,782 67.98% 22.97% \$193 \$207,499,073.73 \$91,843,852 75.39% 33.78% \$173 \$179,257,774.36 \$79,343,605 81.32% 44.81% \$152 \$158,587,671.96 \$70,194,543 85.96% 55.10% \$126 \$143,459,007.80 \$63,498,249 85.67% 64.10% \$111 \$128,000,918.14 \$56,656,144 86.22% 74.82% \$99 \$113,179,768.90 \$50,095,963 86.77% 86.77%

It is providing a close match to the actual behavior of this Powerball run right now.  If the jackpot is not won, it will be interesting to see how the model predicts its behavior.  It would, of course, not be valid in the still unlikely case that the jackpot reaches the annuity based cap, something the model suggests has a less than 15% chance of happening.

New Jersey
United States
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September 4, 2005
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 Posted: May 18, 2006, 12:53 am - IP Logged

The powerball jackpot has been won, and is reset at \$6.6M cash with an advertised \$15M annuity.

The average first drawing of a PB jackpot is around 14.7M.  If the average number is sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is:

 0 90.43% 1 9.10% 2 0.46% 3 0.02%

United States
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June 2, 2005
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 Posted: May 21, 2006, 2:36 am - IP Logged

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 5/24/06 has rolled to 20 million.

New Jersey
United States
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September 4, 2005
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 Posted: May 21, 2006, 10:34 am - IP Logged

The powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value is 8.9 million, 1.2M lower than the MM cash value.  The advertised annuity value is \$20M.

The average number of tickets sold for a second drawing in this matrix is 13.7M.  If this is the number of tickets sold in this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners will be as follows:

 0 91.05% 1 8.54% 2 0.40% 3 0.01%

Lottoreport has not posted the sales for the last drawing yet.  When they have done so, I will post the long term probabilities.

New Jersey
United States
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September 4, 2005
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 Posted: May 22, 2006, 10:39 am - IP Logged

The long term mixed linear/exponential probability model figures are now available:

 \$353 \$469,227,162.10 \$207,690,711 37.37% 1.00% \$300 \$370,814,073.97 \$164,130,820 48.65% 2.67% \$245 \$298,784,505.39 \$132,248,879 59.02% 5.48% \$208 \$246,065,310.75 \$108,914,154 67.98% 9.29% \$193 \$207,479,580.76 \$91,835,224 75.39% 13.66% \$173 \$179,238,281.39 \$79,334,977 81.32% 18.12% \$152 \$158,568,178.98 \$70,185,915 85.96% 22.28% \$126 \$143,439,514.83 \$63,489,621 85.67% 25.92% \$111 \$127,978,926.07 \$56,646,410 86.22% 30.25% \$99 \$113,156,027.46 \$50,085,455 86.77% 35.09% \$86 \$98,970,819.01 \$43,806,756 87.33% 40.44% \$75 \$85,423,300.71 \$37,810,313 87.89% 46.31% \$64 \$72,513,472.57 \$32,096,127 88.45% 52.69% \$54 \$60,241,334.59 \$26,664,197 89.01% 59.57% \$45 \$48,606,886.77 \$21,514,524 89.58% 66.92% \$34 \$37,610,129.10 \$16,647,106 90.16% 74.70% \$26 \$27,251,061.59 \$12,061,945 90.73% 82.85% \$20 \$17,529,684.24 \$7,759,041 91.32% 91.32%

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