Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 10, 2016, 5:39 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.

Topic closed. 310 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

Page 12 of 21
4.52
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
Offline
Posted: May 4, 2006, 6:50 am - IP Logged

Powerball has rolled.  The cash jackpot is $32.6M.  The annuity jackpot is $73M.

Since the matrix change, 7th draws in a series have sold 16.3M tickets on average.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

089.44%
19.98%
20.56%
30.02%

The mixed linear/exponential model (switch to exponential at draw 13) suggests the following long term probabilities for jackpot evolution, ignoring caps and reserves, will apply for the current $32.6M cash, $73M advertised annuity jackpot:

Average Jackpots$603,138,056.92$266,962,74726.06%0.44%
$353 $468,677,499.85$207,447,41837.37%1.68%
$300 $370,264,411.72$163,887,52648.65%4.50%
$245 $298,234,843.15$132,005,58659.02%9.25%
$208 $245,515,648.50$108,670,86167.98%15.66%
$193 $206,929,918.51$91,591,93175.39%23.04%
$173 $178,688,619.14$79,091,68481.32%30.56%
$152 $158,018,516.74$69,942,62285.96%37.58%
$126 $142,889,852.58$63,246,32885.77%43.72%
$111 $127,538,746.36$56,451,57686.31%50.98%
$96 $112,813,752.60$49,933,95686.85%59.07%
$83 $98,714,871.29$43,693,46887.39%68.01%
$72 $85,242,102.44$37,730,11187.94%77.82%
$62 $72,395,446.04$32,043,88688.49%88.49%

    United States
    Member #16612
    June 2, 2005
    3493 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: May 5, 2006, 2:13 pm - IP Logged

    At this point, I hope PB contines to roll. Since they changed the matrix, there were fewer jackpot winners. I hope sales continue this way with interest rates, but high gas prices will limit how people play.


      United States
      Member #16612
      June 2, 2005
      3493 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: May 7, 2006, 12:26 am - IP Logged

      Prob988, I have the fyi update for you. PB Jackpot has rolled to 85 million for 5/10/06

        Avatar
        Morrison, IL
        United States
        Member #4657
        May 13, 2004
        1884 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: May 7, 2006, 12:56 am - IP Logged

        $38.3 million cash, just barely staying ahead of Mega, for now.

          Avatar
          New Jersey
          United States
          Member #21206
          September 4, 2005
          949 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: May 7, 2006, 12:59 am - IP Logged

          Powerball has rolled.  The cash jackpot is $38.3  The annuity jackpot is $85M.

          Since the matrix change, 8th draws in a series have sold 16.9M tickets on average.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

          089.08%
          110.30%
          20.60%
          30.02%

          The recent sales figures have not been released by lottoreport.  When they are available I may update the long term prediction.

            Avatar
            New Jersey
            United States
            Member #21206
            September 4, 2005
            949 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: May 7, 2006, 8:19 am - IP Logged

            The mixed linear/exponential model (switch to exponential at draw 13) suggests the following long term probabilities for jackpot evolution, ignoring caps and reserves, will apply for the current $32.6M cash, $73M advertised annuity jackpot:

             

            Average Jackpots$602,999,231.24$266,901,29926.06%0.50%
            $353 $468,538,674.17$207,385,97137.37%1.90%
            $300 $370,125,586.04$163,826,07948.65%5.09%
            $245 $298,096,017.47$131,944,13959.02%10.45%
            $208 $245,376,822.82$108,609,41367.98%17.71%
            $193 $206,791,092.84$91,530,48475.39%26.06%
            $173 $178,549,793.46$79,030,23681.32%34.56%
            $152 $157,879,691.06$69,881,17585.96%42.50%
            $126 $142,751,026.90$63,184,88185.78%49.44%
            $111 $127,414,159.22$56,396,43186.32%57.64%
            $96 $112,702,918.58$49,884,89886.86%66.77%
            $83 $98,617,304.99$43,650,28387.40%76.87%
            $72 $85,157,318.45$37,692,58487.95%87.95%


              United States
              Member #16612
              June 2, 2005
              3493 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: May 10, 2006, 1:01 pm - IP Logged

              According to my roll records, 87.7 million is the roll 7 record and 101.3 million is the roll 8 record. I hope it continues to roll Prob988.

                Avatar
                New Jersey
                United States
                Member #21206
                September 4, 2005
                949 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: May 11, 2006, 7:01 am - IP Logged

                Powerball has rolled.  The cash jackpot is $44.7M  The advertised annuity jackpot is $100M.

                Since the matrix change, 9th draws in a series have sold 18.7M tickets on average.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

                087.99%
                111.26%
                20.72%
                30.03%

                The mixed linear/exponential model (switch to exponential at draw 13) suggests the following long term probabilities for jackpot evolution, ignoring caps and reserves, will apply for the current $44.7M cash, $100M advertised annuity jackpot.

                Average Jackpots$603,151,370.69$266,968,63926.06%0.56%
                $353 $468,690,813.62$207,453,31137.37%2.16%
                $300 $370,277,725.49$163,893,41948.65%5.78%
                $245 $298,248,156.92$132,011,47959.02%11.88%
                $208 $245,528,962.27$108,676,75467.98%20.12%
                $193 $206,943,232.28$91,597,82475.39%29.60%
                $173 $178,701,932.91$79,097,57781.32%39.26%
                $152 $158,031,830.51$69,948,51585.96%48.28%
                $126 $142,903,166.35$63,252,22185.76%56.17%
                $111 $127,544,843.10$56,454,27586.30%65.50%
                $96 $112,813,742.77$49,933,95286.84%75.89%
                $83 $98,709,865.36$43,691,25287.39%87.39%

                  Avatar
                  New Jersey
                  United States
                  Member #21206
                  September 4, 2005
                  949 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: May 14, 2006, 7:28 am - IP Logged

                  Powerball has rolled.  The cash jackpot is $50.2M. The advertised annuity jackpot is $114M.    Although the advertised annuity for PB is higher, the actual cash value of MM is now higher than PB.    PB is still at better bet, though, since the odds of winning the PB are higher.  (MM is a better bet when its cash value is 20% larger than PB.)

                  Since the matrix change, 10th draws in a series have sold 19.7M tickets on average.  If this is how many tickets are sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is as follows:

                  087.39%
                  111.78%
                  20.79%
                  30.04%

                  Lottoreport has not updated the sales figure, so I will skip posting the long range values until these figures are available.


                    United States
                    Member #16612
                    June 2, 2005
                    3493 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: May 14, 2006, 1:46 pm - IP Logged

                    Prob988, it set a new roll 8 record in the draw. The jackpot hit 101.9 million according to Jake649. I hope it continues to roll.

                      Avatar
                      New Jersey
                      United States
                      Member #21206
                      September 4, 2005
                      949 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: May 14, 2006, 2:26 pm - IP Logged

                      The mixed linear/exponential jackpot evolution model suggests the following:

                       

                      Average Jackpots$603,707,212.14$267,214,66826.06%0.64%
                      $353 $469,246,655.07$207,699,33937.37%2.46%
                      $300 $370,833,566.94$164,139,44848.65%6.59%
                      $245 $298,803,998.37$132,257,50759.02%13.55%
                      $208 $246,084,803.72$108,922,78267.98%22.97%
                      $193 $207,499,073.73$91,843,85275.39%33.78%
                      $173 $179,257,774.36$79,343,60581.32%44.81%
                      $152 $158,587,671.96$70,194,54385.96%55.10%
                      $126 $143,459,007.80$63,498,24985.67%64.10%
                      $111 $128,000,918.14$56,656,14486.22%74.82%
                      $99 $113,179,768.90$50,095,96386.77%86.77%

                      It is providing a close match to the actual behavior of this Powerball run right now.  If the jackpot is not won, it will be interesting to see how the model predicts its behavior.  It would, of course, not be valid in the still unlikely case that the jackpot reaches the annuity based cap, something the model suggests has a less than 15% chance of happening.

                       

                        Avatar
                        New Jersey
                        United States
                        Member #21206
                        September 4, 2005
                        949 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: May 18, 2006, 12:53 am - IP Logged

                        The powerball jackpot has been won, and is reset at $6.6M cash with an advertised $15M annuity.

                         

                        The average first drawing of a PB jackpot is around 14.7M.  If the average number is sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is:

                        090.43%
                        19.10%
                        20.46%
                        30.02%


                          United States
                          Member #16612
                          June 2, 2005
                          3493 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: May 21, 2006, 2:36 am - IP Logged

                          Prob988, PB Jackpot for 5/24/06 has rolled to 20 million.

                            Avatar
                            New Jersey
                            United States
                            Member #21206
                            September 4, 2005
                            949 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: May 21, 2006, 10:34 am - IP Logged

                            The powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value is 8.9 million, 1.2M lower than the MM cash value.  The advertised annuity value is $20M.

                             The average number of tickets sold for a second drawing in this matrix is 13.7M.  If this is the number of tickets sold in this drawing, the probability for various numbers of winners will be as follows:

                             

                            091.05%
                            18.54%
                            20.40%
                            30.01%

                            Lottoreport has not posted the sales for the last drawing yet.  When they have done so, I will post the long term probabilities.

                             

                              Avatar
                              New Jersey
                              United States
                              Member #21206
                              September 4, 2005
                              949 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: May 22, 2006, 10:39 am - IP Logged

                              The long term mixed linear/exponential probability model figures are now available:

                              $353 $469,227,162.10$207,690,71137.37%1.00%
                              $300 $370,814,073.97$164,130,82048.65%2.67%
                              $245 $298,784,505.39$132,248,87959.02%5.48%
                              $208 $246,065,310.75$108,914,15467.98%9.29%
                              $193 $207,479,580.76$91,835,22475.39%13.66%
                              $173 $179,238,281.39$79,334,97781.32%18.12%
                              $152 $158,568,178.98$70,185,91585.96%22.28%
                              $126 $143,439,514.83$63,489,62185.67%25.92%
                              $111 $127,978,926.07$56,646,41086.22%30.25%
                              $99 $113,156,027.46$50,085,45586.77%35.09%
                              $86 $98,970,819.01$43,806,75687.33%40.44%
                              $75 $85,423,300.71$37,810,31387.89%46.31%
                              $64 $72,513,472.57$32,096,12788.45%52.69%
                              $54 $60,241,334.59$26,664,19789.01%59.57%
                              $45 $48,606,886.77$21,514,52489.58%66.92%
                              $34 $37,610,129.10$16,647,10690.16%74.70%
                              $26 $27,251,061.59$12,061,94590.73%82.85%
                              $20 $17,529,684.24$7,759,04191.32%91.32%

                                 
                                Page 12 of 21