The Powerball has rolled over. The cash value is now $91 million and the annuity value is $195M. The back loaded annuity means that the cash value is actually lower than the cash value for MM.
Sales for the last drawing did not rise appreciably with respect to the previous drawing. Although up until now PB was running above average, sales were, at this time, very close to the average for a 13th drawing.
I am going to estimate that the 14th drawing will also be average, and calculate the rollover/winner probability for $32.6 million in sales, the average figure. If this many tickets sell, the probability of various numbers of winners will be:
0 | 80.06% |
1 | 17.81% |
2 | 1.98% |
3 | 0.15% |
4 | 0.01% |
These probabilities are the same as I gave for the 13th drawing, but I over-estimated sales at that time, based on the record breaking behavior of the run the held up until this drawing.
As I am treating the system differently, my long range probabilities for the long term are also the same as last time. I estimate a 19% probability of reaching the cap and a 6% chance of exceeding it. Again, my last assumptions were probably too optimistic.