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Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.

Topic closed. 310 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI
United States
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August 3, 2005
621 Posts
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Posted: March 2, 2006, 12:36 pm - IP Logged

that what I do    Now i got 10 picks for the next 2 MM

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    Sparta, NJ
    United States
    Member #18331
    July 9, 2005
    1977 Posts
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    Posted: March 2, 2006, 12:41 pm - IP Logged

    I don't have any tickets. I will be playing Cash 5 for a few weeks.  I'll let the dedicated people build the pot for me.  Then come back when it hits $100M.  That feels like a good number for this time around.

    Cheers

    |||::> *'`*:-.,_,.-:*''*:--->>> Chewie  <<<---.*''*:-.,_,.-:*''* <:::|||

    I only trust myself - and that's a questionable choice

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      New Jersey
      United States
      Member #21206
      September 4, 2005
      949 Posts
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      Posted: March 5, 2006, 1:37 am - IP Logged

      The Powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash jackpot is now $23.9M and the annuity is $50M.

      The average sales for 5th draws since the matrix change is $14.1M.  The last draw sold considerably above the average number.  Although Powerball is behaving in a way that is not really predictable yet, if we assume that the average sales figure represents what will be sold, the following probability distribution for the number of winners will apply:

       

      090.80%
      18.76%
      20.42%
      30.01%

      Based on historical average sales, I estimate that the Powerball has a 5% chance of reaching a 19th draw that would probably initiate a cap, and a 1.6% chance of reaching a 20th draw.

       

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        Sparta, NJ
        United States
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        Posted: March 5, 2006, 7:18 am - IP Logged

        Do you have a way of impacting the media into your equation?  I've noticed that there is a frenzy when they become involved, and there is a winner within a draw or two.  The media used to get excited at $100M, now they wait until the medium to high $200M.  Depends on whether MM and PB are close to the same peak.  I guess, it will soon wait for the $300M before the media takes a look.

        Cheers

        |||::> *'`*:-.,_,.-:*''*:--->>> Chewie  <<<---.*''*:-.,_,.-:*''* <:::|||

        I only trust myself - and that's a questionable choice

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          Morrison, IL
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          May 13, 2004
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          Posted: March 5, 2006, 12:05 pm - IP Logged

          If the jackpots keep jumping the way they are, it will take $300 million for the media to take a look.

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            New Jersey
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            September 4, 2005
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            Posted: March 9, 2006, 7:05 am - IP Logged

            The Powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash jackpot is now 29.9 and the annuity is $62M.

            The average sales for 6th draws since the matrix change is $13.9M, but sales have been running above average.  Still if 13.9M tickets were sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is given in the following table:

            090.93%
            18.65%
            20.41%
            30.01%

             

            I estimate the probability of reaching a 19th draw at about 5% and the probability of reaching a 20th draw at close to 2%.  There is roughly a 50% chance of reaching an 11th draw, which would place the annuity jackpot around $150 million.


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              June 2, 2005
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              Posted: March 9, 2006, 11:22 am - IP Logged

              I'm happy it has rolled and set a new PB record for roll because of sales.

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                Morrison, IL
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                Posted: March 9, 2006, 12:08 pm - IP Logged

                Yeah, I'll bet even the cash value is setting new roll records.


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                  Posted: March 11, 2006, 10:55 am - IP Logged

                  I think PB will roll although sales are increasing more than expected just as fast as MM.

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                    New Jersey
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                    Posted: March 12, 2006, 6:51 am - IP Logged

                    The Powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash jackpot is now $35.4M and the annuity is $75M.  (The annuity structure at MM would make this a 60M jackpot roughly.)  The last draw had a cash value of $31.4M based on sales.

                    The average sales for 7th draws since the matrix change is $14.2M, but sales have been running above average.  Still if 13.9M tickets were sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is given in the following table:

                    090.74%
                    18.82%
                    20.43%
                    30.01%

                    However ticket sales have been better than average on this run.  If you look at powerball sales figures, they stay relatively flat for the first 10 drawings, often increasing slightly only to decrease in a later draw.  Indeed this run is demonstrating typical behavior.  My gut feeling - not systematic - is that the sales will be around 19M.  In this case, the probability of rollover/winnerss would be as follows:

                    087.81%
                    111.42%
                    20.74%
                    30.03%

                     

                     

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                      Morrison, IL
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                      Posted: March 12, 2006, 12:15 pm - IP Logged

                      Remember though that you can't rely on the true percentage of sales allocated to the jackpot, because they can deduct up to 2% of sales to fund the set prize reserve, and they're probably still paying for those two times last year when they had more than 80 second place winners.

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                        New Jersey
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                        Posted: March 13, 2006, 9:39 am - IP Logged

                        Remember though that you can't rely on the true percentage of sales allocated to the jackpot, because they can deduct up to 2% of sales to fund the set prize reserve, and they're probably still paying for those two times last year when they had more than 80 second place winners.

                        I am aware of that, but I don't calculate my probabilities from lottery projections or sales calculated jackpots anymore.  Instead I rely on sales averages for drawings.  My approach has limitations of course, but the intent is to give a qualitative sense of what to expect.

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                          New Jersey
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                          September 4, 2005
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                          Posted: March 16, 2006, 8:39 am - IP Logged

                          The Powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash jackpot is now $51.6M and the annuity is $75M.  (The annuity structure at MM would make this a 60M jackpot roughly.)  The last draw had a cash value of $31.4M based on sales.

                          The average sales for 7th draws since the matrix change is $15.2M, but sales have been running above average.  Still if 15.2M tickets were sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is given in the following table:

                           

                          090.12%
                          19.38%
                          20.49%
                          30.02%

                           

                          However, as before, ticket sales have been better than average on this run.  If you look at powerball sales figures, they stay relatively flat for the first 10 drawings, often increasing slightly only to decrease in a later draw.  Indeed this run is demonstrating typical behavior, recent sales having been 19.1M.  My gut feeling - not systematic - is that the sales will be around 19M yet again.  In this case, the probability of rollover/number of winners would be as follows:

                          087.81%
                          111.42%
                          20.74%
                          30.03%

                           

                            weshar75's avatar - Lottery-042.jpg
                            Mcminnville, Oregon
                            United States
                            Member #3013
                            December 13, 2003
                            3047 Posts
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                            Posted: March 16, 2006, 10:22 am - IP Logged

                            The Powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash jackpot is now $51.6M and the annuity is $75M.  (The annuity structure at MM would make this a 60M jackpot roughly.)  The last draw had a cash value of $31.4M based on sales.

                            The average sales for 7th draws since the matrix change is $15.2M, but sales have been running above average.  Still if 15.2M tickets were sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is given in the following table:

                             

                            090.12%
                            19.38%
                            20.49%
                            30.02%

                             

                            However, as before, ticket sales have been better than average on this run.  If you look at powerball sales figures, they stay relatively flat for the first 10 drawings, often increasing slightly only to decrease in a later draw.  Indeed this run is demonstrating typical behavior, recent sales having been 19.1M.  My gut feeling - not systematic - is that the sales will be around 19M yet again.  In this case, the probability of rollover/number of winners would be as follows:

                            087.81%
                            111.42%
                            20.74%
                            30.03%

                             

                            Your figures are off.  The cash value is $41.6 million and the annuity is $88 million.  Just thought I would tell you.-weshar75

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                              New Jersey
                              United States
                              Member #21206
                              September 4, 2005
                              949 Posts
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                              Posted: March 16, 2006, 4:42 pm - IP Logged

                              The Powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash jackpot is now $51.6M and the annuity is $75M.  (The annuity structure at MM would make this a 60M jackpot roughly.)  The last draw had a cash value of $31.4M based on sales.

                              The average sales for 7th draws since the matrix change is $15.2M, but sales have been running above average.  Still if 15.2M tickets were sold, the probability of various numbers of winners is given in the following table:

                               

                              090.12%
                              19.38%
                              20.49%
                              30.02%

                               

                              However, as before, ticket sales have been better than average on this run.  If you look at powerball sales figures, they stay relatively flat for the first 10 drawings, often increasing slightly only to decrease in a later draw.  Indeed this run is demonstrating typical behavior, recent sales having been 19.1M.  My gut feeling - not systematic - is that the sales will be around 19M yet again.  In this case, the probability of rollover/number of winners would be as follows:

                              087.81%
                              111.42%
                              20.74%
                              30.03%

                               

                              Your figures are off.  The cash value is $41.6 million and the annuity is $88 million.  Just thought I would tell you.-weshar75

                              I use cut and pasting to do these posts.

                              I will fix the post later.  I should probably wait until I wake up fully to post. 

                               

                                 
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